With the season now at an end we take a look at whether the bookies priced up teams correctly back in August
As the dust settles on yet another roller coaster Premier League season, we look back on whether the bookies got it right with their pre-season odds and look at who out-performed those expectations and who ultimately were a disappointment.
Premier League winners
The top two in the market both failed to live up to their short odds with favourites Man City ending a turbulent season in third place. 13/5 before a ball was kicked, there were occasions during the season when even a top four place looked in doubt.
Over in the red half of the city, Jose Mourinho has also struggled in his first season at Old Trafford with his side finishing a lowly sixth – 24 points off top spot. Top-price 18/5 in August, The Special One had talked up his side’s chances of challenging for the title, before dismissing that possibility out of hand just weeks later.
As for eventual Champions Chelsea, they were as big as 13/2 with bookmakers nine months ago AND at one stage, had drifted to a whopping 25/1 following their 3-0 humiliation at the Emirates.
The Premier League trophy is back where it belongs! #ChelseaChampions pic.twitter.com/AVWkXKcvEg
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) May 21, 2017
Relegation
With a threadbare squad and Mike Phelan in charge, perhaps it was no surprise that Hull were the pre-season favourites for the drop at 4/6. However, they were the only team bookies correctly predicted for the drop with both Burnley (21/20) and Watford (23/10) surviving.
Bottom club Sunderland were priced up at 11/4 at the start of the David Moyes era with newly promoted Middlesbrough 5/2 to make an instant return to the Championship. In fact, the treble on the three was a massive 40/1!
Top 4 finish
Another poor showing from the bookies with only a 50% success. Man City were as short as 1/7 for a top 4 berth and obliged on the last day of the season whilst Chelsea were available at 4/7 with the prospect of no European football to hinder their aspirations. The two to miss out for the bookies were Man Utd (2/5) and top 4 regulars Arsenal (4/6).
Both Spurs and Liverpool have performed above expectations in securing Champions League football with both teams odds against at the start of the season to achieve the feat – Liverpool 6/4 and Spurs 13/8.
Golden Boot
Another one where bookmakers were wide of the mark with pre-season favourite Sergio Aguero (7/2) only managing joint-fourth with 20 league goals for the season.
With 24 and 25 goals respectively, both Alexis Sanchez (25/1), Romelu Lukaku (14/1) were clear of the rest at different points in the season but neither could match the finishing burst of one-season wonder Harry Kane (7/1) who finished with seven goals in his last two games and four Premier League hat-tricks in 2017 alone.
In fact, Kane managed to score more goals than Middlesbrough did all season (and the same as Sunderland) despite playing 7 games fewer!
So proud to win this beauty again! Thanks to the team for helping me achieve this! Perfect week to finish the season! #COYS #GoldenBoot pic.twitter.com/O2g1YWVQSj
— Harry Kane (@HKane) May 21, 2017
First manger to leave
In a season that saw six sackings (we think) the bookies’ favourite at the start of the whole thing was baseball cap supremo Tony Pulis at 5/2. He, of course lasted the whole season (although both he and his team appeared to go on holiday from the end of March onwards) whereas Swansea chief Francesco Guidolin (8/1) suffered the ignominy of being the first to get the chop.
