Where does the value sit when you consider the remaining fixtures?
With the return of the Bundesliga imminent, punters across the country will be searching for value within the incredibly competitive outright market.
But who has the easiest remaining fixtures? Which of the contenders face the easiest schedule? We’ve taken a look at who still has to play who in the Bundesliga.
We’ve broken down each Bundesliga team’s remaining fixture schedule, factoring in home and away games for each side.
The fixture difficulty figure in this table is derived from looking at both the home and away results for the Bundesliga this season and plotting the average position of opponents that each team has to play until the end of the season.
Bayern Munich - 10.3
But what does their remaining schedule look like? After looking at the upcoming fixtures, not the easiest.
In fact, Bayern have a tougher schedule on paper than a number of teams below them trying to claw back the points differential.
Bayern play 2nd place Borussia Dortmund in just three games time, then face 5th place Bayer Leverkusen two games after that.
There’s no rest for the wicked, with Hansi Flick’s team then taking on Borussia Monchengladbach in the fixture following the Leverkusen tie. That means they have to play three of the four teams below them in the space of four games.
In terms of the ‘easier’ games, Bayern kicks off the resumption of the campaign with two relatively straightforward fixtures, taking on 11th placed FC Union Berlin and 12th placed Eintracht Frankfurt.
After crunching the numbers, the average league position of Bayern's remaining games is 10.3.
Oddschecker Football Writer Ryan Elliott’s verdict: "While Bayern have a wealth of title-winning experience on their side, the fixture list for their run-in isn't the kindest.
“Their six-pointer against Borussia Dortmund will undoubtedly shape the Bundesliga title race, but the presence of RB Leipzig in the mix ensures the champions' margin for error is minuscule.
"Their clash with bogey team Borussia Monchengladbach towards the tail-end of the season is another big test, but the leaders have been exceptional since Hansi Flick took charge of the side, and most will still feel the title is theirs to lose."
- In-depth football stats
- Multiple deposit methods
- Licensed by UK Gambling Commission
Borussia Dortmund - 9.6
Poised to pounce on the champions, Borussia Dortmund have a host of games against teams in the bottom half.
BVB still have to play 18th place Paderborn, 13th place Hertha Berlin, 16th place Fortuna Dusseldorf and 15th place Mainz.
With these games clustered consecutively, Dortmund will be handed a run of easier games whilst Bayern play Monchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen.
Currently priced at 11/2, Lucien Favre’s side could go some way to picking up the four points they trail the leaders by at this stage.
A mouth-watering clash with 3rd place challengers RB Leipzig is Dortmund’s penultimate game of the season, in what could well be a title decider in the Red Bull Arena.
Dortmund’s final game of the season sees them take on Hoffenheim (9th place), with a home game at Westfalenstadion.
Although Dortmund's 9.6 average league position to play is tougher than Bayern’s, Favre's men are definitely worth watching.
Oddschecker verdict: "It's been an all-action campaign for free-scoring Borussia Dortmund, who will feel their first three matches back in action will determine their competitiveness in the forthcoming title race.
"The Revierderby against Schalke, followed by a tough trip to Wolfsburg and then a face-off with Bayern doesn't go down as the easiest of starting fixtures, but should they emerge unscathed, Lucien Favre's men will have a real shot of glory."
Fußball— oddschecker (@oddschecker) May 7, 2020
Here are next weekend's upcoming fixtures in the Bundesliga.
RB Leipzig - 11
And there’s value there. RB Leipzig, according to our data have the easiest run-in for the rest of the campaign out of the title contenders.
Apart from the aforementioned crunch game with Dortmund in their second last match of the season, Leipzig don't play anyone higher than 8th in their last nine games of the season.
That means they face the 8th, 10th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th and 18th best teams in the league for the remainder of their title challenge.
This is by far the best run-in of any side in with a shot of the title.
Leipzig have been well supported in the market, attracting 26% of all bets on the outright market since news the league announced its return.
With an average league position of 11th still to play, our data indicates Leipzig have the easiest run-in of the contenders.
Oddschecker verdict: "Despite their relatively easy run-in, RB Leipzig's title chances are still being somewhat downplayed.
“Julian Nagelsmann has assembled a hard-to-beat, goal-rich juggernaut and this balance will give them a better shot at overtaking Bayern than Dortmund.
"The East Germans will be hugely confident of winning every single one of their fixtures up until their penultimate weekend clash with Dortmund, which is on home soil, and 10/1 for them to win the title is far too big."
Here is how the Bundesliga form table looked before football was suspended— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) May 11, 2020
FC Koln and Leverkusen
Schalke and Hoffenheim
The 2019/20 Bundesliga season is set to resume this coming weekend -- https://t.co/srmyfAdb7F pic.twitter.com/INFdlAx3rJ
Borussia Monchengladbach - 9.2
In fact, they only trail by six points with nine games left of the season.
Marco Rose’s side take on Frankfurt (12th) in their opener after the break and will be keen to claw back some points quickly.
Monchengladbach have the chance to take three points off Bayern when they travel to the Allianz Arena on the 13th of June.
They also face a crucial game with 5th place Bayer Leverkusen, but apart from those two games their schedule is looking light.
Die Fohlen still have Hertha Berlin (13th), struggling Werder Bremen (17th) and Paderborn (18th) on their remaining fixture list.
According to our data, the average league position of their remaining fixtures is 9.2.
Oddschecker verdict: "After enjoying a breathtakingly good first half of the season, Borussia Monchengladbach started to lose a little momentum in the weeks before the league's postponement.
“Gladbach are still very much still in the conversation considering they're just six points off the top, but clambering above one, let alone three of the excellent sides above them, looks like a perilously difficult task."
Bundesliga Title odds
- Huge range of regular promotions
- 24/7 live chat service
- PickYourPunt builder for custom bets