Fantasy Football Hub use bookmaker odds to try and pick the perfect gameweek 1 Fantasy Premier League team.
Holly Shand is a regular Fantasy Football Hub contributor on all things FPL and Footstock. She's been playing Fantasy Premier League for six seasons, with two top 10k finishes and a further two top 100k finishes. Here she looks at how bookies’ odds could help you with your gameweek 1 fantasy team.
While fantasy algorithms are now a very valuable tool, the bookies have been predicting match outcomes with relative success for years.
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Delving into the bookies odds, particularly when it comes to things like clean sheet odds, to score 3+ goals and anytime goalscorer odds, can be particularly useful for our FPL decisions.
Ahead of the opening Gameweek 1, we are going in-depth on those bookies odds mentioned above for all eight fixtures. How can these statistics influence our fantasy thinking and what would the bookies optimal team be for Gameweek 1? All odds are taken from Oddschecker.
Gameweek 1 Clean Sheet Odds
Here's the implied probability of sides to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 1, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.
- Liverpool 50%
- Arsenal 42%
- Wolves 41%
- Chelsea 40%
- Spurs 40%
- Leicester 35%
- West Ham 35%
- Southampton 33%
- Crystal Palace 31%
- Sheffield United 31%
- Newcastle 25%
- West Brom 22%
- Everton 20%
- Brighton 17%
- Fulham 15%
- Leeds 9%
When it comes to hunting for clean sheets in FPL Gameweek 1, it's clear that you get what you pay for. It's a familiar host of names at the top of the rankings, with Liverpool far clear of their rivals.
Anyone looking to boost a very popular selection of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) with a double-up on Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) or Virgil Van Dijk (£6.5m) could steal an early march.
There's a plethora of sides well-placed for a clean sheet in Gameweek 1, but finding a budget gem from their backlines is becoming increasingly difficult.
William Saliba (£4.5m) has been absent from much of Arsenal's pre-season games. The lowest priced route into the Chelsea defence is at £5.0m, but many of the options on offer aren't nailed on. Antonio Rudiger (£5.0m) could be the safest way in.
Ruben Vinagre (£4.5m) was the go-to route into the Wolves defence, but in recent days he's been rumoured to be going elsewhere. Eric Dier (£5.0m) is an intriguing option from a potentially solid Spurs defence under Jose Mourinho.
Gameweek 1 To Score 3+ Goals Odds
Here's the implied probability of sides to score 3+ goals in Gameweek 1, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.
- Liverpool 48%
- Arsenal 35%
- Chelsea 31%
- Spurs 25%
- Leicester 23%
- West Ham 20%
- Southampton 15%
- Wolves 14%
- Crystal Palace 13%
- Newcastle 13%
- West Brom 13%
- Everton 10%
- Brighton 10%
- Sheffield United 9%
- Fulham 8%
- Leeds 6%
When it comes to a goal fest, we are most likely to see an emphatic performance from Liverpool, who are significantly more fancied than Arsenal to start with a bang.
Could that have an influence on our captaincy thinking in the opening week? One thing is for sure: it's probably a good idea to use at least two Liverpool slots in your Gameweek 1 squad.
Chelsea have conducted some fantastic business in the transfer window and are expected to get off to a great start against Brighton. The difficulty here is knowing which of their new signings to go for.
Spurs and Leicester also look set to deliver goals in Gameweek 1, but the problem here is finding the room in our squads for their offensive players, having already selected a premium option from Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea.
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FPL Gameweek 1 Anytime Goalscorer Odds by Position
Here's the implied probability of players by position to score anytime in Gameweek 1.
| Forwards | Midfielders | Defenders |
|---|---|---|
| Vardy 53% | Aubameyang 59% | Van Dijk 21% |
| Werner 52% | Salah 57% | Alexander-Arnold 15% |
| Ings 49% | Mane 52% | Schar 13% |
| Kane 49% | Havertz 37% | Alisoki 13% |
| Brewster 47% | Yarmolenko 36% | N. Williams 12% |
| Abraham 46% | Son 36% | Luiz 11% |
| Lacazette 45% | Moura 32% | Clark 11% |
| Antonio 45% | Jota 31% | Fernandez 11% |
| Giroud 45% | Jones 30% | Lejeune 11% |
| Mitrovic 42% | Soucek 30% | Diop 10% |
While Liverpool are expected to have a greater edge over Leeds United than Arsenal against Fulham, when it comes to a player vs player analysis, it's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£12.0m) who is most likely to find the back of the net. It's a very close run captaincy conundrum for Gameweek 1 though, between him and Mohamed Salah (£12.0m).
The other premiums expected to score in Gameweek 1 are Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) who leads the way, with a narrow edge over Timo Werner (£9.5m). Don't discount Sadio Mane (£12.0m), Danny Ings (£8.5m) and Harry Kane (£10.5m) who are also well-fancied on the opening weekend.
Looking further down the rankings, the Spurs midfielders Heung-Min Son (£9.0m) and Lucas Moura (£7.0m) could be among the goals for their side and the latter comes in at a promising price point.
Searching for defenders, the argument for a double-up on Liverpool defenders becomes even stronger when we look at the anytime goalscorer odds for Virgil Van Dijk (£6.5m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m).
It's difficult to find other defenders with goal threat and a high clean sheet likelihood this weekend, with David Luiz (£5.5m) perhaps the only other name that jumps off that list.
Bookies Dream Team
Taking all of the above into account, here is the Bookies' Dream Team for FPL Gameweek 1. We've managed to squeeze in the top two players for anytime goalscorer odds in each position, as we hunt to maximise both goals and clean sheets.
- Martinez
- Diop
- Alexander-Arnold
- van Dijk
- Dier
- Soucek
- Aubameyang (C)
- Salah (V)
- Jota
- Vardy
- Werner
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