With exactly one month to go until the final at Wembley, Tom Love analyses how the head-to-head record and AFCON returnees are shaping the Carabao Cup final odds.
The first piece of silverware this season will up for grabs in the Carabao Cup final this time next month (Sunday 27th February). It sees the eight-time winners of the competition in Liverpool face off against five-time time champions Chelsea at Wembley.
The end to Manchester’s recent Carabao Cup dominance
Despite the pair being regular finalists and winners over the past few decades, neither have lifted the trophy since 2015, something that will have to change here. Manchester City have lifted the trophy in the last four seasons, beating Chelsea at Wembley in 2019, while neighbours Manchester United overcame Southampton in the 2017 final.
Given the match will be taking place on a neutral venue it will be interesting to monitor the game lines and prices in the days and weeks building up to the crunch clash.
Latest Chelsea vs Liverpool Carabao Cup final odds
At the time of writing, the latest Carabao Cup final odds show Liverpool as 7/5 favourites to win in 90 minutes and 8/11 best price to lift the trophy, while Chelsea are chalked up at 11/5 and 11/10 respectively. Those quotes indicate that Liverpool would potentially be slight odds-on if not evens at home which is probably fair, but we can’t discount this Chelsea side given how hard they’ve been to beat under Thomas Tuchel.
The Blues did drop off when the winter months came but they still only lost twice in 27 games from October through to February. That goes to show that even when his side aren’t performing at their peak, they still have the wherewithal to grind out results whether that be a draw or a win. With that kind of mentality, it’s hardly surprising that they went on to win the Champions League last season as it’s a method that suits knockout football.
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The impact of AFCON returnees
What could also go in Chelsea’s favour is the hope that some key individuals may be back in the fold. With AFCON having concluded before this game they should welcome back the outstanding Edouard Mendy in goal as well as influential right wing back Reece James which should bolster them in the final third more than anything. It does look like the season is over for Ben Chilwell, though, which is obviously a blow.
Liverpool on the other hand will also have benefited from the ending of AFCON meaning important forwards Sadio Mane and Mo Salah should be back in the frame. The Reds should also have the likes of Thiago and Harvey Elliott back in contention by the final too, although Jurgen Klopp may opt to field a much stronger side than he has done in previous rounds of the competition with silverware only one step away.
Chelsea vs Liverpool head-to-head
Looking at the recent head-to-head meetings between the well-matched sides we can see that there’s little between the two. Over the last six meetings there have been two Chelsea wins, two Liverpool wins and two draws - it couldn’t be tighter.
Maybe then it’s the draw in 90 minutes that could be the value angle in here (best price 11/5), especially when you throw in the magnitude of the match and the option of extra time and penalties may only increase the likelihood of a risk-averse approach from both sides should the game be all square after an hour or so.
It’s been the correct result in each of the last two games between the sides, and with both proving extremely difficult to beat under their respective managers it would not be a surprise to see this final go all the way.
