Can Cooper and Nottingham Forest prove that good things come to those who wait by making their new Premier League status last or will they slip back into the Championship?
What happened last year?
Forest endured their worst start to a season in 108 years under Chris Hughton, collecting one point from their opening seven matches. In a world of short attention spans and fleeting patience, Forest continued their shotgun style and appointed Steve Cooper in the wake of Hughton’s dismissal.
Cooper, although a relatively inexperienced boss, had an impressive resume. Having guided England under 17’s to World Cup glory he then took Swansea to back-to-back playoffs in his first job, an achievement not to be overlooked especially after seeing the Swans’ languid 15th placed finish this year. And yet what happened next is something no Forest fan would have been able to predict.
Over the next 39 games, Forest collected 79 points. In fact, If the season had started from Gameweek eight Cooper would have won the league, five points clear of Fulham in 2nd and yet his influence wasn’t limited to the league. Along a FA Cup quarter-final run which included knocking out the two previous holders in Leicester and Arsenal, Cooper broadcasted his new-look team on terrestrial television to inject a new lease of life to a season which seemed over by September.
This only ended at the hands of quadruple-hunting Liverpool in a narrow 1-0 defeat in the quarter-finals but by this time promotion seemed possible and attention was returned to the league.
This cup run showed Cooper’s impact. He didn’t just win, he galvanised the city and brought an atmosphere back to the City Ground that had been lacking. With 29 managers since relegation in 1999, fans had grown used to instability, an ever-changing squad and disappointment. But they latched onto Cooper as their average attendance went up to the second highest it’s been since the start of the century with Forest surging up the table.
Although dealing with an increased fixture list, a team made up of largely loan players and several injury problems including to their top scorer Lewis Grabban, Cooper maintained his positive “next man up” mentality to guide Forest on the brink of automatic promotion. And even when these dreams were crushed in a 1-0 defeat at Bournemouth, he again lifted up his players, and the fans, to win the playoffs on a memorable Wembley afternoon to guide Forest back to the big time.
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Key signings?
Dean Henderson
Henderson, who is a product of Manchester United’s academy, has failed to break into the first team during his time at Old Trafford and has subsequently spent nearly all of his time out on loan. However, it was on these loans that he established himself as one of the brightest young English keepers around. In the 2018-19 season he helped Sheffield United win back promotion to the Premier League winning the clubs Young Player of the Year award, as well as the league’s Golden Glove, keeping 20 clean sheets throughout the season.
The next year, he was loaned out again to the promoted Blades and endured a terrific campaign prompting Manchester United manager Ole Gunnar-Solskjaer to say that he saw Henderson as United’s future first-choice keeper. Henderson played a huge role in guiding the Blades to a 9th placed finish in their first season back and was subsequently not loaned out the following year.
However, after failing to beat David De Gea to a regular starting spot, Forest have lured Henderson away again with the promise of regular Premier League football. A keeper with Premier League experience and importantly something to prove, he looks like an excellent addition and even an upgrade form the mercurial Brice Samba.
Neco Williams
Forest have moved smartly to acquire Liverpool graduate Neco Williams. Williams, who has been at Liverpool since he was eight, finally has succumb to the realisation that he is not part of Liverpool’s first team plan.
However, that is no dig at the Welshman as Klopp possesses potentially the best full-back in the competition in Trent Alexander-Arnold, who already has 45 Premier League assists at the age of 23, is established as a cult hero at Liverpool and seems immovable from the starting XI.
However, that only seems to Forest’s benefit with their acquisition of Williams who does have Premier League appearances to his name and a bright future ahead of him at 21. Indeed, it will be interesting to see the link up play between himself and fellow Welsh team mate Brennan Johnson, something which Spence and Johnson developed throughout last year.
Jesse Lingard
The most famous signing is that of Jesse Lingard but it could also prove to be the best. On paper, Lingard is a cut above a team at Forest’s level. He’s played over 150 premier league games and has 32 caps for England. But Lingard, who is no doubt a joker in any deck, has been suffering the consequences of his actions of the pitch. From launching his own clothing brand to having nearly 10 million followers on Instagram, Lingard’s attention has never solely been on his football.
But Lingard has spoken openly and publicly of his desire to return to the England squad for the World Cup and comes to Forest with a point to prove. Both parties have something to gain and this “quid pro quo” arrangement may help Cooper tease out the Jesse Lingard who registered nine goals and five assists in 16 games at West Ham. If he can do this, then Forest may have secured the coup of the season and Lingard may well be on the plane to Qatar.
And who’s out?
Brice Samba
As alluded to above, many of Forest’s starting XI were loanees and so they knew they needed to rebuild. However, one thing they did not foresee is their playoff hero Samba leaving after failing to agree a new contract. Samba, who memorably saved three penalties in Forest’s semi-final penalty shoot-out win, claimed he was insulted by the terms of his contract and subsequently left.
Samba’s impact wasn’t just limited to one night, however, as he kept 17 clean sheets and was second in the league for save percentage (76.5%). Still, it is dangerous to credit Forest’s clean defensive record to Samba alone with Cooper’s back five system meaning he enjoyed the cover of three high-class centre-backs in Worrall, Cook and Mckenna.
Moreover, Ethan Horvath’s three clean sheets during his six-game spell in the team, due to Samba’s suspension, further credits the ability of Forest’s defensive line to shield the goal and relieve pressure off the keeper. Credit must therefore be extended to the entire defensive unit rather than simply to Brice alone. With Henderson a fantastic replacement, too, fans shouldn’t be too worried.
Djed Spence
One departure Forest could have predicted was that of star wing-back Djed Spence who was only loaned to them from Middlesborough. Spence, one of five first-team loanees, was perhaps the best as he earned a place in the Championship team of the year. His impressive performances earned him a £20 million move and a five-year contract at Tottenham where he has the opportunity to play Champions League football. Williams, as written above, has been signed as replacement.
Who is their star man?
Brennan Johnson
One player Forest had to keep hold of this year was their starlet, Brennan Johnson. The 21-year-old achieved 16 goals and nine assists in his breakout season subjecting him to £18 million bids from Brentford in January. He performed when it mattered too with a goal in both of the semi-final legs and perhaps the best news of the summer, despite all of the signings, was Johnson penning a new four-year deal keeping him in the garibaldi red until 2026. His breakthrough also extended to his National team as Wales have secured their first World Cup qualification since 1958.
Johnson played on the right flank and enjoyed a productive partnership with full-back Spence whose departure sparked worries over Johnson's subsequent effectiveness for the Premier League. However, Forest have secured Johnson's international team-mate Williams to settle any fears. If he can reproduce his form of last year than he will be an invaluable asset to Forest’s chance of survival.
What can we expect from them in 2022/23?
Although Forest have already added 11 new additions and look set to spend up to £100 million this summer, a word of warning must be issued. Recently, two other previous Championship playoff final winners have spent heavily and yet suffered depressingly disappointing seasons.
In 2017/18 Fulham were promoted via the play-offs and, like Forest, had six first-team members on loan, so needed to spend big. During the summer, they spent over £100 million on 15 new additions but could only manage a tame 19th, 10 points adrift of safety. In 2019, Aston Villa, again playoff winners, spent £133 million and managed to finish 17th surviving the drop by a single point.
However, there are some differences to discern from these two recent examples. Firstly, Fulham lacked a central spine to their team. After their loan players returned to their parent clubs, the remaining residue didn’t inspire much hope. Players like Cyrus Christie, Floyd Ayite and Denis Odoi seemed destined for Championship-level football and didn’t offer hope they could make the step up to the Premier League.
However, Villa, who unlike Fulham managed to survive did have a promising spine remaining even when starlet loanee Tammy Abraham returned to Chelsea. Players like Tyrone Mings, John McGinn and Jack Grealish (who all still remain Premier League players) meant that there spending had a core to build on.
Forest arguably possess a similarly promising spine in the shape of Joe Worrall, Ryan Yates and Johnson and it must be remembered that they would have finished top of the league if it had started from Cooper’s arrival. It is therefore dangerous to treat them like previous playoff winning sides but a caution must be given before fans run away with a dream of a top-half finish.
Where do the odds project them to finish?
Nottingham Forest are 2nd favourites to be relegated at odds of 11/8.
Any recommended bets?
Cooper’s men are a best-priced 8/11 to stay up and should be backed maximum stakes to achieve this. However, their lack of squad depth and Premier League experience means fans should be wary at backing them to achieve a top-half finish.
Although Chris Wilder guided Sheffield United to a 9th placed finish in their first season in 2019-20, Cooper may need some more time before achieving the same fate. I envisage them coming anywhere from 14th – 17th.
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