Liverpool’s chances of finishing in the top four reduce by the week, but Sam McGuire thinks missing out might not be a bad thing.
Liverpool Top 4 odds on the drift
If results go against Liverpool in the Premier League this weekend, the Reds could find themselves 13 points off of a top four spot (best price 23/10). Jurgen Klopp’s side host Chelsea at Anfield knowing anything other than a win makes the second half of the campaign a complicated one.
If they fail to pick up maximum points against the Blues and top four rivals all pick up positive results, there is an argument that the Reds should put all of their eggs in the Champions League basket.
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They have a tricky match against Real Madrid, a team Liverpool haven’t beaten since 2009, to navigate, but if they’re able to knock the holders out, they might fancy their chances of going all of the way once again. Lifting ol’ big ears ensures their place in the Champions League next term. It is a big ask but the alternative comes with a risk.
The Merseysiders could look to make up ground in the Premier League. After all, they have done it before. However, if they fail this time around, there is a chance they end up playing in the Europa League next term and nobody wants the inconvenience of playing Thursday and then Sunday. Even worse, they could end up in the Europa Conference League.
Premier League Top 4 Finish Odds
| Team | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City | 1/50 | 1/200 |
| Arsenal | 1/18 | 1/200 |
| Man Utd | 1/4 | 1/7 |
| Newcastle | 5/6 | 4/7 |
| Liverpool | 23/10 | 6/4 |
| Spurs | 4/1 | 5/2 |
| Brighton | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| Chelsea | 12/1 | 8/1 |
Champions League or Bust for Liverpool?
Liverpool’s approach could well be Champions League or bust, and you wouldn’t blame them.
Though the Reds would be missing out on the riches of Europe’s premier club competition and that is no doubt a blow to their revenue, the model they have adopted means that a year without European football might actually see them have more money to spend.
As we know, a lot of the contracts are heavily incentivised meaning the more successful the club are, the more money is paid out to players.
An example of this made it into the news in 2018 when a report claimed Roberto Firmino allegedly earns £25,000 for each of his first five goals a season, £45,000 for his goals between six and 10, £65,000 from 11 to 15, and £85,000 from then on.
Having done this for Firmino, it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume others have similar clauses in their deals. It would go some way to explaining why despite having a set wage structure, the Reds saw their annual wage bill increase on an almost yearly basis.
Winning games does not come cheap. Liverpool hit 90+ points in three of their last four seasons. They’ve had multiple Golden Boot winners and the best defensive record in the English top flight. That is before considering the cost of their exploits in Europe.
The Reds shouldn’t purposely tank the season now but an 8th place finish, for example, brings the wage bill down. Obviously, revenue will take a hit but the way the Premier League operates means every club gets a fair chunk of money due to TV rights.
On paper, revenue remains fairly high while the percentage spent on wages drops. It is the perfect storm for transfers. Some will claim the club aren’t an attractive project without European football but rivals have managed to attract talent without it over the years.
One year without it won’t put players with long-term ambition off. Who wouldn’t want to be part of a retooled Klopp side with a sole focus on winning the Premier League next season?
Chelsea finished 10th in 2015/16 and then won the title in 2016/17 with 93 points. Liverpool went from 8th in 2015/16 to 4th the following season without the distraction of European football. It has been done and can be done again. It isn’t ideal but needs must.
Liverpool’s approach to the January window
It might be why the Reds aren’t going to break the bank in January to add a midfielder. They would be paying a premium fee and there is no guarantee it will lift them into the Champions League places.
According to multiple reports, Liverpool will move for both Matheus Nunes and Jude Bellingham in the summer. It makes sense too as the club will know what their 2023/24 season looks like.
Missing out on Europe wouldn’t be the disaster some think it will be. It wouldn’t tarnish Klopp’s legacy at Anfield either. If they get it right in the summer, it could even enhance it.
