Sam McGuire has five reasons why Newcastle United will beat Manchester United to lift the Carabao Cup trophy next Sunday at Wembley.
At the start of the season, few people would’ve had Newcastle United against Man United in the Carabao Cup final. But on Sunday 26th February, the two teams face off at Wembley in the first domestic cup final of the season.
It looks set to be one of the most fiercely contested finals in recent memory with a single place separating the two teams in the Premier League this term. Though the Red Devils will likely be favourites under new manager Erik ten Hag (currently best price 3/4 to lift the trophy), we feel the Magpies will be the team lifting the trophy at the end of the match (6/5).
And here’s five reasons why.
Driven on by such a long trophyless period
Newcastle United last won a major trophy during the 1954/55 campaign when they claimed the FA Cup following victory over Manchester City. The last time the Toon Army made the trip to Wembley was in 1999. They lost 2-0 to Manchester United with the Red Devils going on to complete the treble a few days later.
Now, Man United are suffering something of a trophy drought themselves having last won a trophy in 2017. However, this isn’t a want for Newcastle, this is a need. Success in the Carabao Cup doesn’t just end their 67 year wait for a domestic trophy, it could kickstart a new era for the club. After all, once Manchester City won their first FA Cup, a Premier League title soon followed.
This game is about much more than a domestic cup for the Magpies.
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Locking down Wout Weghorst
Not many teams have the players to handle someone like Wout Weghorst, but Newcastle are one of them. The 6ft 6in striker arrived on loan in January and has already had an impact on ten Hag’s side.
He may have only netted once, coincidentally in the Carabao Cup at Nottingham Forest, but his sheer presence in the team has created opportunities for others on the pitch and this is why the Red Devils signed off on a deal to bring the Dutchman in.
However, the Magpies possess two of the most aerially dominant centre-backs in the league in Sven Botman and Fabian Schar.
Botman has won 66% of his aerial duels while Schar has won an impressive 68%. Both are imperious in the air and will go some way to nullifying one of Man United’s biggest threats. If they manage to do that, they disrupt their entire attacking structure. Once this happens and ten Hag’s men revert back to being individuals, they are easier to handle.
Overreliance on Rashford
Manchester United have been racking up wins since the turn of the year, even recording a 2-1 victory over neighbours Manchester City, but things aren’t as good as they seem.
Marcus Rashford isn’t necessarily carrying them but in the 15 matches he’s appeared in since returning from the World Cup, he has scored or assisted in 13 (best price 16/1 to win POTY).
Rashford actually has 13 goals and four assists during this period. It isn’t quite as simple as stop him and stop United, but we are getting awfully close to that. After all, this team isn’t filled with goals.
The midfield battle
Casemiro has been a revelation since his summer switch from Real Madrid but Newcastle United have their very own difference maker in the middle third in Bruno Guimarães.
Ten Hag’s team haven’t looked as composed, dominant or assured without the Brazilian in their team following his sending-off against Crystal Palace. He was also on the periphery against Manchester City and that was a game United struggled in until their equaliser.
If Guimarães is able to dictate the game and put his stamp on proceedings while simultaneously limiting what his Brazilian counterpart can do, Newcastle have the advantage. Given he’s been one of the best midfielders in the league this season, you wouldn’t bet against the Newcastle No. 39 outperforming his Brazilian compatriot.
And finally... the data
It sounds fairly basic but Newcastle United have better numbers this season. They have a better defensive record - in fact, their record is one of the best in the Premier League - and their offensive numbers dwarf those posted by the Red Devils.
The game isn’t won on a spreadsheet but the point is Eddie Howe’s men should be filled with confidence going into this game. They shouldn’t go into it as underdogs. They have gone toe-to-toe with the best in the Premier League this term and held their own. Their performances are sustainable and their threat is very much real.
