We look at the teams most at risk of dropping into the Championship with six games left to play until the end of the Premier League season.
While many eyes have been fixed on the top of the table tussle between Manchester City and Arsenal and the race to secure Champions League football, the relegation dogfight at the lower end of the table is arguably the most intriguing outright this season.
With just over a month left of the season, 10 points separate the bottom eight teams, with just two separating 19th place and 16th place. It is an interesting time for some of the big names in the relegation battle, with the likes of Everton, Leicester and Leeds United at high risk of going down.
Current Premier League Table
We’ll look at each of those bottom eight teams who are most at risk of going down based on the relegation market in the Premier League.
Southampton – 1/9
At a best price of 1/9, the bookmakers believe it would take a miracle for Southampton to stay up in the Premier League.
They have been around the lower end of the table for a few seasons now, and have only entered the top half once this season after their 2-1 win over Chelsea at the end of August.
It has been a tumultuous season for the Saints, which has seen three managers take charge and unable to change their fortunes. Ralph Hasenhuttl left his position at St Mary’s as the Saints dropped into the bottom three prior to the World Cup.
Nathan Jones took over and arguably produced an even worse job, losing seven of his eight games in charge, with the final straw being a 2-1 defeat at home to 10 men Wolves after taking the lead.
Ruben Selles got off to a flyer, keeping three clean sheets in his opening four games, including wins away at Chelsea and a point at Manchester United. Their latest draw away at Arsenal might be seen as a failure on the basis that they had a two-goal lead going into the dying stages of the match.
On the horizon, they host Bournemouth in their next match, before games against Newcastle, Fulham, Brighton and Liverpool, with another six-pointer against Nottingham Forest in May. Had they held on to win against the Gunners, the table would be looking a bit healthier for them. They run the risk of being cut adrift at the bottom and need nothing but a win against the Cherries.
James Ward-Prowse has been their key player this campaign, but with the Saints destined to drop he is surely too good for the Championship, hence the plethora of teams vying to sign the England international and set-piece specialist.
Nottingham Forest – 2/9
Play-off final winners last season, Nottingham Forest (best price of 2/9 for the drop) expected a struggle to remain in the Premier League even after making 30 summer signings.
There have been moments where Steve Cooper looked to be leaving the club, with intermittent rumours that he would depart quashed by the club. Regardless, they endured a tough start to life in the league and sat 18th before the World Cup.
In contrast, 2023 started in a very different vein, as Forest won three of their first five league games of the year and went unbeaten throughout January. However, the good period came to an end, and their last win in the Premier League was their 1-0 win over Leeds United back in early February.
They have now lost four games on the trot and look like they might be returning to the Championship next season. They host Brighton on Wednesday but still need to face Brentford, Chelsea and Arsenal, before travelling to Selhurst Park on the final day of the season.
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Everton – 10/11
Everton narrowly survived relegation last season, coming back from 2-0 down to beat Crystal Palace on the penultimate fixture of the season. It might be even tighter this time around, which shows in their best price of 10/11 to be relegated.
Current Chelsea caretaker manager Frank Lampard took charge of the Toffees to start with, following his heroics in keeping them up last year, but any optimism or momentum shortly ebbed away. Lampard won just three league games this season, leaving the team in 19th place.
However, Sean Dyche came in and looked to have turned Goodison Park into a fortress, winning his first two home games in charge, and has picked up 13 points from his 12 games in charge so far. However, the Toffees are now winless in five and have struggled to find wins.
They will face a jubilant Newcastle side who put six past Tottenham, followed by trips to Leicester and Brighton, before hosting Manchester City. They finish with what might prove to be a relegation showdown on the final day against Bournemouth.
If Everton are to beat the drop again, it might be very tight, especially with them joint with Leicester, who picked up a win last weekend against Wolves.
Leicester – 7/4
Not many fans and pundits expected Leicester to be anywhere near the bottom three this year, having only finished in the bottom half once since that famous title win in 2016, but a best price of 7/4 means they are right amongst it, with the situation changing every week.
Brendan Rodgers guided them to two successive 5th placed finishes in his first two full seasons in charge. After finishing 8th last season, another potential push for the upper end of the table looked on the cards.
What came was a dismal start to the campaign, where they had just a point after their first seven games. They looked to have gained momentum going into the World Cup break, where they were as high as 13th following a strong October and November, winning five of their eight league games.
However, since the return from that break, Leicester lost the first four games back. While they recovered to win back to back games against Aston Villa and Tottenham, a run of eight league games without a win dropped them back into the relegation zone in 19th and Rodgers was duly dismissed.
Dean Smith, Rodgers’ replacement, picked up his first win as Leicester boss against Wolves as he tries to move the Foxes away from danger. Their next match away at Elland Road is a major six-pointer for the two sides, now separated by just a point.
Leeds – 7/4
Leeds United retained their Premier League status on the final day of last season under Jesse Marsch, guided by talisman Raphinha. The Brazilian forward left for Barcelona while Kalvin Phillips departed for Manchester City and it looked like there would a major gap to fill in attack and midfield.
With new found sums to spend, they went out and brought Brendan Aaronson, Luis Sinisterra and Tyler Adams to the club. As is a recurring theme here, those signings have failed to live up to the high expectations of those before them, and they now find themselves in a basement battle at the key end of the season with a best price of 7/4 to go down.
Marsch and co got off to a fantastic start to the season, picking up seven points from nine which had them as high as 3rd. A winless eight-game run followed, but a shock win at Anfield and a seven-goal thriller against Bournemouth moved them further clear from the drop.
Things got darker for Leeds as they went through December and January without a win, and Marsch paid the price, with the defeat to Nottingham Forest being the final straw.
Since Javi Gracia came in, their fortunes have failed to turn. Three disappointing defeats in a row leaves them fighting for their lives once again. They rank bottom for form on the last three games, losing all three while conceding 13 in the process. Only Bournemouth have conceded more goals this season (63) according to WhoScored, which is staggering when you consider nine of those came in one game at Anfield.
Bournemouth – 10/1
That 9-0 defeat saw the end of Scott Parker, with many fans and pundits alreadu resigning them to a 20th place finish. Following that embarrassment, they were as short as 3/10 to go down.
Yet since Gary O’Neil came in, their prospects - unlike some of their relegation counterparts to make managerial changes – have brightened massively.
They have shown character and fight to stay above the dotted red line of relegation, now finding themselves in 15th place, five points clear of Everton in 18th.
A best price of 10/1 suggests that it would be very unlikely they will go down, but also highlights the fantastic work O’Neil has done since taking over at the Vitality Stadium with what many argue to be the weakest squad in the top tier of English football this season.
Two relegation six-pointers await them in Southampton and Leeds, but wins would move them well up the table. Wins at Leicester and Tottenham have definitely improved their position, as well as beating Liverpool in the reverse fixture to the 9-0 defeat suffered back in August. They are certainly not out the woods yet, but they could be home and dry by the end of this crucial week for them.
Wolves – 40/1
Bottom at Christmas, Wolves look set to become the first side since Leicester in 2015 to be bottom on Christmas Day and survive relegation.
Julen Lopetegui took charge after their defeat to Arsenal and has since transformed the team, bringing them up to 14th and six clear of the drop zone. Since taking charge, he has won five of his seven home games and picked up 24 points from a possible 51.
With a best price available at 40/1, it seems highly unlikely that they go down, given the teams below them are out of form and the good work Lopetegui has done since arriving at Molineux.
West Ham – 125/1
Another team that has flirted with the bottom three at times, they seem to have pulled away from the drop zone and an uptick in performances has shown. A dominant display on the south coast against Bournemouth has given them a big chance of staying up.
They also march onto the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League, with the potential to win West Ham’s first piece of silverware since 1980, where they beat Arsenal in the FA Cup final. Should they do so, it will look to be a successful season.
Next season might be a problem, with the likes of Declan Rice and Jarrod Bowen potentially moving elsewhere, but with confidence now oozing through the side, their best price of 125/1 indicates that they are all but safe for another campaign.
Premier League Relegation Odds:
| Team | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1/9 | 1/20 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2/9 | 1/6 |
| Everton | 10/11 | 8/11 |
| Leicester | 7/4 | 6/4 |
| Leeds United | 7/4 | 11/8 |
| Bournemouth | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| Wolves | 40/1 | 25/1 |
| West Ham | 125/1 | 33/1 |
