Sam McGuire looks at where it all went wrong for Arsenal in their pursuit of a first Premier League title for 19 years.
Earlier this month, Arsenal were huge title favourites. In fact, they were as short as 8/15 with one bookmaker to land their first Premier League title since 2004.
It hadn't all been straightforward for the Gunners but Mikel Arteta's men had shown a title-winning mentality to get themselves out of trouble on a number of occasions. After every comeback victory though the narrative was that it was a sign of champions.
Their first title win in nearly two decades looked to be a formality.
Yet now, in the final week of April, Arsenal are a best price 10/3 to get their hands on the Premier League trophy after a forgettable month. So, where did it all go wrong? We track the best price for Arsenal through oddschecker before and after each of their last three matches.
| Sunday 9th April - Liverpool vs Arsenal | |
|---|---|
| Before kick-off | 8/11 |
| After the match | Evens |
As they made the trip to Anfield a little over two weeks ago, the Gunners were odds on to see out the remainder of the season in first place.
Arsenal hadn't won away to Liverpool since 2012 and many seemed to think this was their final hurdle. Win there and the momentum would see them over the line.
They got off to a dream start too, going 2-0 up inside of 30 minutes. But then a second half capitulation had the away side holding on at the end. Had it not been for the exploits of Aaron Ramsdale between the sticks, they would've lost.
It would've been mixed emotions for Arteta and his players. They no doubt would've been disappointed not to translate a 2-0 lead into all three points but they would've been relieved to have picked up a point after that second half display.
The away side conceded eight big chances against Liverpool as the hosts racked up an Expected Goals haul of 3.96.
| Sunday 16th April - West Ham vs Arsenal | |
|---|---|
| Before kick-off | 5/4 |
| After the match | 7/4 |
A week on, West Ham created three big chances against the Gunners as Arsenal allowed yet another 2-0 lead to slip. Bukayo Saka missed from the spot at 2-1 and moments later Jarrod Bowen levelled.
| Friday 21st April - Arsenal vs Southampton | |
|---|---|
| Before kick-off | 7/4 |
| After the match | 3/1 |
In a reverse of the previous two matches, Arteta's men found themselves 2-0 and 3-1 down against bottom of the table Southampton before rallying late on to claim a 3-3 draw at home.
Given the circumstances, it could be argued that it was a point gained. But when you're going for the title, a match against the bottom of the league has to reap three points, especially at home and with Pep Guardiola’s side hitting top form.
This sort of blip has been on the cards though for Arsenal. For example, in the 18 games they've played since the World Cup, they have conceded two or more on eight occasions. In 44% of their matches since the Premier League resumed, they have conceded a minimum of two goals.
In nearly half of these games, they have needed a minimum of three goals to pick up maximum points. That sort of thing just isn't sustainable. They got away with it in wins over Aston Villa (4-2), Bournemouth (3-2) and Manchester United (3-2), but it was only a matter of time before the attack wouldn't be able to bail out the defence.
Prior to the turn of the year, Arsenal had kept a clean sheet in 43% of their matches. In 2023, they've kept a clean sheet in just 31% of their games.
Despite claims this demise is tied to the absence of the injured William Saliba, this issue isn't a recent one and was apparent even when he was in the starting XI.
Betfred
- Huge range of regular promotions
- 24/7 live chat service
- PickYourPunt builder for custom bets
Arteta's men may be controlling possession but they're haven't been able to control matches for quite some time now.
By comparison, City (now a best price 1/4 to win the title) have conceded two or more in just two of their last 15 matches. They've lost twice during this period but they still managed to control the game in both instances - the 2-1 loss to United and the 1-0 defeat to Spurs.
City limit the opposition and ease the reliance on the attack to score goals. They strip back the chaos in a game and make it almost boring. Arsenal haven't yet mastered that aspect of the game.
It has allowed City to claw back points in this title race and get them into the position they're now in. A win on Wednesday takes them within two points of Arsenal with two games in hand.
