Sam McGuire explains why Sam Allardyce might not be the guarantee many believe him to be in Leeds’ fight for Premier League survival.
Sam Allardyce is a no-frills appointment for Leeds United. There’s nothing long-term about this hire. The former England manager has been drafted in at Elland Road to keep the club in the Premier League (best price 4/7).
As things stand, Leeds are outside of the drop zone on goal difference. Under former manager Javi Gracia, they were in freefall. Their last clean sheet was in the Spaniard’s first match in charge - a 1-0 win over Southampton.
Following that, they picked up just eight points from a possible 30 while conceding 28 goals. Under the one-time Watford boss, Leeds had a goal difference of -13 across 11 matches.
It might be too little too late but a change was needed. If only to give them a fighting chance of survival.
Leeds still have to face title-challenging Manchester City, a Newcastle United side closing on Champions League football, a Spurs side still playing for a European spot and relegation-threatened West Ham.
Allardyce won’t have long to get his side organised but his message is, and always has been, very clear. Appearing on Sky Sports back in 2017, Allardyce gave insight into how he operates as a tactician.
"It only takes one goal to win a game. When you look at the clean sheets records, it gives you the platform to be successful in the season. You can't always score two or three goals depending on your squad and your position in the league. That and scoring first. Clean sheets and scoring first are the two easier ones for everybody to look at."
Betfred
- Huge range of regular promotions
- 24/7 live chat service
- PickYourPunt builder for custom bets
His plan is an obvious one. Allardyce is going to set Leeds up to not lose games. A win is a bonus but the primary objective is to not concede goals in the remaining few matches. Do that and they will get points on the board.
It is going to be easier said than done though.
Only Southampton have kept fewer clean sheets in the league this season (four to Leeds’ five) while statistically speaking, Illan Meslier is one of the worst shot-stoppers in the league. Per FBref, the Frenchman has conceded 10 more goals than the average goalkeeper would have this season.
Leeds have conceded four or more goals in three of their last five Premier League matches and momentum is not on their side right now.
Furthermore, the last time Allardyce was drafted in to save a team was during the 2020/21 campaign. West Brom appointed him in December and his new side conceded 13 goals in his first four matches in charge, including heavy defeats to Leeds (5-0) and Arsenal (4-0). Allardyce’s West Brom didn’t keep their first clean sheet until their 12th match under the ex-Bolton manager.
His stint at the Hawthorns ended in relegation, the first of his career.
Prior to that, he had successfully navigated Everton and Crystal Palace out of tricky situations. When hired by the Toffees, he was unbeaten in his first seven matches in charge, winning four times and keeping a clean sheet in five of the games. They did suffer a 4-0 loss to Spurs and a 5-1 defeat to Arsenal but they were the only two occasions the Merseysiders conceded four or more under him.
It was a bit of a different story at Palace. He was winless in five following his arrival and this included a run of four losses. They kept just one clean sheet in their first eight games under Allardyce, though things did eventually improve.
The worrying for Leeds is that in two of his last three jobs, he’s started off slow. They don’t have the luxury of time on their side right now and need immediate results to stay in the English top-flight.
Allardyce might not be quite the guarantee that many seem to believe he is.
Premier League Relegation Odds:
| Team | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1/40 | 1/66 |
| Leeds | 4/7 | 1/2 |
| Everton | 8/11 | 8/13 |
| Nottingham Forest | 10/11 | 8/11 |
| Leicester | 15/8 | 7/4 |
| West Ham | 33/1 | 18/1 |
*Odds accurate as of 11:30 on 03/05/2023.
