Are we heading for a summer election in the UK?
UK bookmakers today have slashed odds for there to be a General Election between July and September following rumours Rishi Sunak will call a snap election.
A General Election taking place between July and September is now the most likely time according to the latest odds on oddschecker.
Having been 2/1 on Wednesday morning, the latest adjustment has seen them now at a shortest 1/2, an increase in implied probability from 33% to 56%.
It remains a best price 5/6 on Paddy Power.
Next Election Odds Date
| Date of General Election | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| July – September 2024 | 5/6 | 1/2 |
| Oct – Dec 2024 | 5/4 | 5/6 |
| 2025 or later | 18/1 | 14/1 |
| April – June 2024 | 50/1 | 25/1 |
The latest betting trends on oddschecker show that 66% of bets placed on the Date of the General Election market have backed it to take place between July – September 2024 (compared to 24% of the bets in 2024 previously).
A General Election being held between October and December had previously been the most likely outcome at odds of 1/3 (now 5/4 on BetMGM).
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Leon Blackman from oddschecker said: “The betting market which allows punters to bet on the date of the Next General Election has sprung into life on Wednesday morning.
“Having been dormant for months, with an election expected between October and December 2024, it is all change in the betting.
"After inflation fell from 3.2% to 2.3%, rumours are circulating that Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives will call a snap election.
“These rumours have led to a General Election happening between July and September 2024 being the most likely date, according to the bookies.
“On oddschecker, we’ve seen a surge of bets come in Wednesday backing this, as the odds have been cut from 2/1 to 1/2. This translates to an increase in implied probability from 33.3% to 56%.”
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