Oddschecker's EFL expert Matthew O’Regan has delved into the permutations and given his verdict on the Final Day showdown to avoid League Two relegation.
Despite their only being two relegation spots in League Two, no side are officially down heading into the final day. Five teams will be battling out to avoid the dreaded drop to Non League.
Barrow -1/500
Fixture: Newport County (H) – 21st
Permutations:
The market has effectively written Barrow off. Bottom of the table and three points from safety, Sam Foley’s side must win and then rely on both Harrogate Town and Crawley Town losing. Even then, Barrow would still need to overturn an eight-goal deficit on goal difference.
Anything other than victory confirms relegation.
Verdict:
Relegation looks inevitable. Just two wins from their last 15 matches underline why Barrow are overwhelming odds-on for the drop. The scale of the required goal swing is implausible, and their seven-year stay in the Football League appears set to end.
Harrogate Town – 11/10
Fixture: Barnet (H) – 9th
Permutations:
Harrogate remain firmly in the danger zone and will need to rely on other results to survive.
- Win: Survival unless Tranmere, Newport and Crawley all win
- Draw: Enough if Barrow beat Newport County, or Tranmere lose by four or more goals, or Crawley lose
- Loss: Relegation likely unless Crawley are beaten by five more goals than Harrogate
Verdict:
Once seemingly dead and buried, Simon Weaver’s side have mounted a late revival with consecutive wins. Barnet have nothing riding on the outcome and may rotate, though their recent attacking form has been strong - four wins in a row, scoring 16 goals in the process.
A draw could be enough for Harrogate- and that is the outcome I expect. An added advantage lies in the contrast in managerial experience: Weaver’s 17 years at the club versus Colin Kazim-Richards’ two months in the role. Weaver has a squad that will fight for him and won’t overthink the occasion.
Crawley Town – 6/5
Fixture: Salford City (H) – 4th
Permutations:
Crawley’s superior goal difference gives them a slender cushion.
- Win: Survival assured unless Harrogate win by five or more goals
- Draw: Enough unless Harrogate win - also keeps Crawley up on goal difference if Tranmere or Newport lose
- Loss: Relegation if Harrogate avoid defeat
Verdict:
The return of popular former boss Scott Lindsay did not have the desired effect in attempting to stave off a potential back-to-back relegation. Colin Kazim-Richards was handed his first senior managerial role in March and has taken eight points from six games.
The Red Devils could only name six substitutes in the 3–3 draw at Accrington and continue to lack a proven goalscorer. They now face a Salford side still chasing promotion, meaning Crawley will be under pressure from the first whistle. For me, they are the second team relegated, alongside Barrow.
Newport County – 6/1
Fixture: Barrow (A) – 24th
Permutations:
Newport are close to safety but not yet secure.
- Win: Guaranteed survival
- Draw: Enough if either Harrogate or Crawley fail to win
- Loss: Relegation if Harrogate and Crawley both avoid defeat
Verdict:
For much of the season it looked like Newport and Harrogate were destined for the drop, but the inspired appointment of Premier League winner Christian Fuchs has sparked a transformation. His side have avoided defeat in 13 of his 30 games in charge.
Newport also appeared set to enter the final day inside the relegation zone after Bobby Kamwa missed a penalty in the 90+15th minute against Oldham- only for the 26-year-old to make amends minutes later, sending the Rodney Parade crowd into raptures.
Fuchs has his side doing the basics well, and that composure should be enough to see them over the line. However, Barrow have nothing to lose so will throw all caution to the wind, so the Austrian will be pondering his approach.
betkwiff
Tranmere Rovers – 14/1
Fixture: Grimsby Town (H) – 6th
Permutations:
Tranmere are the least likely relegation candidates and would need three teams to overtake them to face the drop.
- Win: Survival
- Draw: Survival unless Newport, Crawley and Harrogate all win
- Loss: Relegated if Newport and Crawley avoid defeat and Harrogate win
- They can also go down if beaten by four goals while Harrogate draw
Verdict:
It has been a catastrophic fall from grace for Tranmere, who have taken just eight points from a possible 63 since early January. Rovers were priced as big as 100/1 for relegation only a couple of months ago.
The appointment of Pete Wild has failed to inspire, with six defeats in nine matches further alienating a disgruntled fan base. Tranmere supporters would have welcomed Grimsby’s five wins from six to secure a play-off berth -reducing the stakes slightly for the visitors - but David Artell’s side can still finish anywhere between fourth and seventh.
I think Tranmere have just enough on the board to survive, but an early Grimsby goal or two could send a toxic Prenton Park into full panic mode.
