The final round of the World Cup group stage gets underway today. After two matchdays, these are the leading contenders to lift the trophy.
The FIFA World Cup is only two matchdays old, yet the landscape already looks dramatically different from the one that existed before a ball was kicked. Established powers have flexed their muscles, dark horses have emerged from the shadows, and a handful of contenders have already seen their credentials questioned.
With the group stage entering its decisive phase, the outright market is beginning to take shape. Some nations have shortened significantly after impressive starts, while others have drifted following unexpected stumbles. The question now is simple: who looks most likely to be lifting football's most coveted trophy next month?
Who is the Favourite to Win the 2026 World Cup?
According to the latest odds at Oddschecker, France remain the favourites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 4/1, which translates to an implied probability of 20.0%. Spain sit second in the betting at 6/1, giving them an implied chance of 14%, while defending champions Argentina are close behind at 7/1, equivalent to a 13% probability.
England are priced at 15/2 and carry an implied chance of 12%, despite their disappointing draw with Ghana on Matchday Two. Portugal, one of the standout teams of Match Day Two, are available at 10/1, implying an 9% chance of lifting the trophy. While France remain the bookmakers' favourites, the market suggests there is little separating the leading contenders, with Spain, Argentina, England and Portugal all viewed as genuine threats heading into the knockout stages.
France
France remain the favourites at 4/1 (20.0% implied probability) despite not quite hitting top gear yet. The depth of Didier Deschamps' squad remains unmatched, with world-class options in every area of the pitch. Kylian Mbappé continues to be the team's talisman and, historically, France have shown they know how to navigate tournament football better than almost anyone. Their combination of experience, athleticism and knockout-stage pedigree keeps them at the top of the market.
Spain
Spain are second favourites at 6/1 (14% implied probability) after carrying their excellent pre-tournament form into the World Cup. Luis de la Fuente's side have looked organised, dominant in possession and dangerous in attack, with Lamine Yamal and Pedri providing creativity and energy. Spain's ability to control games through midfield remains one of their biggest strengths, and bookmakers clearly believe they have the balance required to go all the way.
Argentina
Tournament football often comes down to moments, and no player in the competition remains more capable of delivering those moments than Lionel Messi.
Argentina have not been flawless through their opening two matches, but they have won both and conceded just once. More importantly, Messi has been responsible for every single goal they have scored at this World Cup. His brace against Austria moved him beyond Miroslav Klose as the tournament's all-time leading goalscorer, as he sits on top of 2026 Golden Boot Winner race.
The concern for Argentina is obvious. Their dependence on Messi is bordering on extreme. While the supporting cast remains talented, they have yet to consistently share the attacking burden. The positive is that tournament-winning teams often ride one transcendent player deep into the competition, and Argentina possess the greatest tournament player the sport has ever seen.
England
England remain among the leading contenders at 15/2 despite a frustrating 0-0 draw against Ghana on Matchday Two. Thomas Tuchel's side opened their campaign with an impressive 4-2 victory over Croatia and still sit in a strong position to progress from Group L, but the Ghana result exposed a familiar issue against deep defensive blocks. England dominated possession and territory yet struggled to create clear-cut opportunities, with Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham largely kept quiet by a disciplined Ghana defence.
The positive for England is that few nations can match their depth of talent, with Kane, Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Marcus Rashford and Morgan Rogers capable of deciding matches in the knockout rounds. If Tuchel can find the right attacking balance against organised opponents, England have the quality to challenge for a first World Cup title since the 1966 FIFA World Cup.
Portugal
If any side has strengthened their outright credentials more than Portugal after Match Day Two, it is difficult to identify them.
Roberto Martínez's side displayed a ruthless 5-0 dismantling of Uzbekistan on Matchday Two after a shock 1-1 draw against DR Congo that attracted widespread criticism. Cristiano Ronaldo found the net to break his World Cup draugh, while Bruno Fernandes continued dictating games from midfield.
What makes Portugal particularly dangerous is their balance. They possess elite attacking talent, creativity in midfield, and enough defensive quality to control matches against both elite opponents and lesser nations.
Unlike previous Portuguese generations that occasionally felt reliant on Ronaldo's brilliance, this squad appears capable of winning matches through multiple routes. That versatility is often what separates contenders from champions.
World Cup 2026 Dark Horses
Netherlands
The Dutch arrived with relatively little fanfare compared to some of Europe's traditional giants, but that is changing rapidly.
Their demolition of Sweden was arguably the most impressive team performance of Matchday Two. Cody Gakpo delivered a perfect 10.0-rated display, scoring twice and terrorising the Swedish defence throughout, while the rest of Ronald Koeman's side looked organised, aggressive and clinical.
The Netherlands have historically thrived when expectations are moderate. Their current squad combines tournament experience with genuine attacking firepower, and there is a growing sense that they may be peaking at exactly the right moment.
If Koeman's men continues producing at this level, few teams will relish facing the Oranje in the knockout rounds.
Brazil
The reaction to Brazil's opening performances has been somewhat mixed, largely because the standard expected of them is impossibly high.
Yet there are encouraging signs everywhere. Matheus Cunha has emerged as a major attacking weapon, the squad depth remains unmatched by most rivals, and Carlo Ancelotti's influence is becoming increasingly visible with every passing game.
Brazil have often started tournaments steadily before exploding into life once the knockout rounds begin. Their ability to rotate quality players without significantly weakening the side could prove invaluable as fatigue begins to impact other contenders.
The ceiling remains incredibly high, and few coaches are better equipped to navigate a tournament as big as World Cup than Ancelotti.
Germany
Germany are available at around 12/1 (7.7% implied probability) and remain firmly in the conversation despite sitting just outside the leading group in the betting. They produced one of the most dominant results of the tournament with a 7-1 victory over Curacao and possess the attacking firepower to trouble any defence. Germany's biggest strength is their tournament pedigree. Few nations are better equipped to handle the pressure of knockout football. If players such as Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz continue to perform, Julian Nagelsmann's side could quickly emerge as one of the most dangerous teams left in the competition.
Morocco
Morocco have been one of the stories of the tournament and are priced at around 20/1 (4.8% implied probability) to win the World Cup. After becoming the first African nation to reach a World Cup semi-final in 2022, they have shown that run was no fluke. Brahim Diaz has been central to their attacking threat, contributing in both World Cup matches so far, while the team continues to display the defensive organisation and resilience that made them so difficult to break down four years ago.
Morocco may not possess the squad depth of France or Spain, but their combination of structure, belief and individual quality makes them a genuine dark horse capable of causing problems for any nation in the knockout rounds.
