Who have the bookies picked out as the most likely candidate to be sacked first in the Premier League?
Eleven managers left mid-season last year, and nine more have walked since May - Guardiola's City exit and the Maresca-for-Alonso swap at Chelsea the headline moves of a chaotic summer.
With five of the 20 current bosses only appointed in the last few months, the pressure to deliver from day one has never been higher. So who's most likely to be the first name axed once the season gets going? Here's where the betting markets stand.
Next Premier League Manager to be Sacked Odds
Jakirovic tops the market as clear favourite, with O'Neil the only other manager under 5/1. After that, the odds stretch out significantly.
Arbeloa, Glasner and Lampard are all grouped in the 9/1 to 17/2 bracket, suggesting bookmakers see a two-horse race at the top before a chasing pack forms behind.
Who is Favourite to be Sacked First in the Premier League?
Sergej Jakirovic heads into his first Premier League campaign as favourite for the sack, despite guiding Hull City to promotion via the play-offs against the odds last term. The Tigers are among the bookies' picks for an instant return to the Championship, and their opening fixtures; Manchester United, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Newcastle before the first international break, offer no easy introduction. Hull have also churned through managers at a rapid rate in recent years, which won't help Jakirovic's cause if results dip early.
Despite promotion last season, luck was very much on their side. If the table were decided by xG they would have finished in the relegation places, they scraped into the play-offs on the final day of the season, and they won the final with a last minute goal. Jakirovic might not see the same luck in the Premier League.
Gary O'Neil isn't far behind in the betting. Ipswich lost the man who built their promotion in Kieran McKenna over the summer, leaving O'Neil to integrate a heavily reshaped squad against a testing opening schedule that includes Sunderland, Manchester United and Liverpool. His recent Premier League record, including a rocky send-off at Wolves, hasn't done much to ease the scepticism from bookmakers.
O'Neil is dealing with a huge overhaul of a squad that was a settled unit under McKenna and a club that will no doubt be facing a big culture shock.
Further down the market, Alvaro Arbeloa carries obvious risk as a rookie top-flight manager taking over a Fulham side that's lost its two leading forwards from last season. Oliver Glasner arrives at Forest with an excellent CV, but inherits a club whose owner has burned through four managers since last season started. Frank Lampard's new contract to 2029 and hero status at Coventry suggest patience will be shown even if the Sky Blues' brutal opening fixtures (Arsenal, Manchester City) bite early.
Premier League Next Manager Sacked Betting
Punters have been busy in the past week, and the Oddschecker data tells a slightly different story to the headline odds, bettors are piling onto names further down the market rather than backing the favourites.
| Manager | Club | Share of Bets |
|---|---|---|
| Alvaro Arbeloa | Fulham | 25.4% |
| Enzo Maresca | Manchester City | 13.2% |
| Pierre Sage | Crystal Palace | 10.5% |
| David Moyes | Everton | 8.8% |
| Michael Carrick | Manchester United | 7.0% |
| Matthias Jaissle | Newcastle United | 6.1% |
Arbeloa accounts for more than a quarter of all sack-race bets placed in the last seven days, a striking gap given he's priced at 17/2 rather than favourite. It points to punters backing inexperience at a club that's lost its two main goal threats over a squad they see as more resilient in Jakirovic or O'Neil.
Arbeloa doesn't have a lot of experience and he certainly doesn't have the quality of player he had a disposal at Real Madrid.
The Maresca (20/1) and Sage (20/1) numbers are the real eyebrow-raisers, though. Neither features in the top five in the outright odds, yet they're attracting the second and third-highest share of bets. Some punters clearly fancy value in backing a big job under a demanding owner (Maresca at City) or a managerial change following a fan-favourite exit (Sage replacing Glasner at Palace) over the more obvious relegation-zone candidates.
