Lamine Yamal has overtaken Harry Kane in the race for the Ballon d'Or.
Lamine Yamal is the favourite for the Ballon d'Or 2026, with Harry Kane the second favourite in a tight market at the top.
The ceremony takes place at the London Palladium on Monday 26 October, the first time the men's award has been presented outside Paris in the modern era.
Yamal's best price is 10/11 with Spreadex and Sporting Index. Kane is 6/5 with Ladbrokes and Coral.
Kylian Mbappé is the third favourite at 22/1, with Lionel Messi at 25/1 and Rodri at 40/1.
Voting closed on 28 September, so these prices are now a read on how the 100 national journalists are thought to have voted.
Ballon d'Or 2026 Winner Odds
Who is favourite to win the Ballon d'Or 2026?
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 10/11 | Spreadex, Sporting Index | 1/2 |
| Harry Kane | 6/5 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 1/1 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 22/1 | Spreadex, Sporting Index | 12/1 |
| Lionel Messi | 25/1 | Unibet | 12/1 |
| Rodri | 40/1 | Spreadex, Sporting Index | 25/1 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 80/1 | Spreadex, Sporting Index | 16/1 |
| Pedri | 80/1 | BetMGM | 66/1 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 66/1 | BetVictor | 66/1 |
| Bukayo Saka | 66/1 | BetMGM | 66/1 |
| Michael Olise | 100/1 | Spreadex, Sporting Index | 33/1 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 150/1 | Spreadex, Sporting Index | 22/1 |
Ballon d'Or Odds Movement
Kane was the favourite for most of August and September, then Yamal took over when voting closed on 28 September.
Through August and into mid-September, Kane was around 4/5 to 10/11 with the books (Spreadex had him at 4/7 on 8 September). Yamal was still an outsider around 4/1 in early September, then shortened through mid-month to about 11/4 by 20 September and 21/10 by 27 September, while Kane stayed around 8/13 to 4/6.
The swing came on 28 September, the voting deadline. Spreadex cut Yamal from 2/1 to 19/20 and Kane drifted from 13/20 to 21/20. By 29–30 September Yamal was favourite around evens to 4/7, and Kane had gone out to around 21/20 to 6/4.
Into early October Yamal shortened further (Spreadex down to 4/7 on 1 October, bet365 as short as 4/9), while Kane sat around 6/5 to 11/8.
When Is the Ballon d'Or 2026?
The awards are on Monday 26 October at 8pm BST, live on DAZN and ballondor.com. France Football published the men's shortlist of 30 on 8 September.
Journalists from the top 100 FIFA-ranked nations each ranked 10 players, scoring 15-12-10-8-7-5-4-3-2-1.
The reference period ran from 3 August 2025 to 19 July 2026 and included the World Cup.
Yamal and Kane: Ballon d'Or Front-Runners
Yamal finished 2025-26 with 24 goals and 17 assists in 45 appearances, 41 direct goal contributions, won La Liga and was named the league's Player of the Season, then played the full 120 minutes in the World Cup final as Spain lifted the trophy. That makes him a league champion and World Cup winner at 18, and he was runner-up in the 2025 Ballon d'Or vote.
Kane's case is the numbers. He scored 61 goals in 51 appearances across all competitions in 2025-26, including 36 goals and five assists in 31 Bundesliga games, and finished with the European Golden Shoe. Unlike a lot of his rivals, he backed it up with silverware, helping Bayern retain the Bundesliga and win the DFB-Pokal and German Super Cup. He then scored six goals at the World Cup, overtaking Gary Lineker as England's all-time leading scorer at the tournament. Add his England goals and he has 73 goals across club and country in one season.
Mbappé won the World Cup Golden Boot with 10 goals but Real Madrid collected no major club trophies in the reference period.
