Harry Kane has been backed back into favourite ahead of Lamine Yamal for the Ballon d'Or.
Harry Kane is the 8/13 favourite to become the first Englishman to win the Ballon d'Or since Michael Owen in 2001. A week before the ceremony at the London Palladium, the market has swung back his way.
Voting closed on 28 September, but the prices have changed a lot since. Lamine Yamal led the betting at the start of October, but Kane has been odds-on with every bookmaker since the middle of the month.
Kane's case is built on goals. He scored 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich, a club record, and won the Bundesliga, the DFB Cup and the European Golden Shoe. He then scored six more at the World Cup, where England finished third.
Yamal's case is Spain winning the World Cup, a La Liga title, and the fact that he finished runner-up last year.
Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds
Who Is Favourite to Win the Ballon d'Or 2026?
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 8/13 | Betfair, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 2/5 |
| Lamine Yamal | 11/8 | bet365 | Evens |
| Lionel Messi | 20/1 | bet365, William Hill | 14/1 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 20/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 11/1 |
| Rodri | 50/1 | William Hill | 20/1 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 66/1 | bet365, William Hill | 16/1 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 10:09 BST, Monday 19 October: www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/ballon-dor/winner
At 8/13, Kane has around a 62% chance of winning, according to the odds. BetVictor is the shortest at 2/5.
He was between 6/5 and evens in the first week of October, then the market moved strongly in his favour. By 11 October he was around 4/9, and he has mostly been 8/15 to 4/7 since. He's the most popular bet on Oddschecker, ahead of Yamal, Messi, Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé.
The judges rank individual performances and how decisive a player was above team trophies, which suits Kane. Bayern went out of the Champions League in the semi-finals, but his 73 goals for club and country were the most of any player. Kane himself called it "my best season by far".
Lamine Yamal Ballon d'Or Odds
Yamal is 11/8 at best, and evens with Betfair, Sky Bet and Paddy Power, which works out at around 42%. He was cut to around 4/7 on 1 October, but he has drifted to about 2/1 since 11 October.
He had a strong season for Barcelona, winning La Liga Player of the Season as they won the league title. He also won the World Cup with Spain. However, it was a quiet, injury-hit tournament for him personally, and that's probably what's holding his price back.
Ballon d'Or 2026 Outsiders
Messi is 20/1 after a World Cup in which he scored eight goals, made four assists and won the Silver Ball before retiring from international football. David Beckham said: "In my opinion, he should win it." Mbappé is also 20/1. He won the Golden Boot with 10 goals and scored 42 for Real Madrid, but finished the season without a trophy. Rodri won the World Cup Golden Ball and is 50/1 for a second Ballon d'Or after 2024.
PSG retained the Champions League and have nine players on the 30-man shortlist. Even so, last year's winner Dembélé is a 300/1 outsider this time.
When Is the Ballon d'Or 2026?
The 70th Ballon d'Or ceremony is on Monday 26 October at the London Palladium, the first time it has been held outside France. The ceremony runs from 8pm to 10pm BST and is free to watch on DAZN after signing up, with a live stream on the Ballon d'Or website as well. The Kopa, Yashin and Gerd Müller trophies and the women's Ballon d'Or are presented on the same night.
Ballon d'Or 2026 Prediction
Last year's favourite won, when Dembélé was 1/6 on the day. Kane is a much shorter price than Yamal this time and he fits the voting criteria best. Spain's World Cup win is Yamal's main argument, but his own tournament was poor. Our prediction is Kane, but with voting already closed, there's no value at 8/13 in our view. This is an editorial view, not a tip.
