Ballon dOr Odds take a big twist as Kylian Mbappe's price drops massively.
The 2026 Ballon d’Or betting market has seen a major shake-up, with Kylian Mbappé making a dramatic late move to overtake Lamine Yamal in the race for football’s most prestigious individual award.
Mbappé was available at 12/1 just two days ago, but his odds have since crashed to a best price of 7/4. Meanwhile, Yamal has drifted from 2/1 to 7/1, leaving the Barcelona star under increasing pressure in the betting.
Harry Kane remains the favourite to take home the Golden Ball, despite a marginal drift in his price. With the ceremony approaching, the market is pointing towards a three-way battle between the Bayern Munich striker, Mbappé and Yamal.
Who is the Favourite to Win the Ballon d’Or?
Harry Kane is the favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or, priced at 4/11 with Sky Bet. Kylian Mbappe has overtaken Lamine Yamal as his nearest challenger at 2/1, with the Barcelona forward now available at 9/2. Mbappe’s price has shortened significantly from 12/1 just days before the ceremony.
Kane remains the man to beat in the Ballon d’Or race. His prolific scoring record for Bayern Munich and his importance to both club and country have helped establish him as the leading contender.
Although his odds have drifted slightly, the movement has been far less dramatic than the changes affecting Mbappé and Yamal. Kane’s position at the top of the market suggests bookmakers still believe his overall body of work gives him the strongest case for the award.
The main question is whether his individual achievements and team success will be enough to secure the prize ahead of two formidable challengers.
Mbappé is the big mover in the market. Having been priced at 12/1 just two days ago, the Real Madrid forward is now available at a best price of 7/4.
That represents a huge shift in expectations. His odds have shortened sharply as he has moved ahead of Yamal to become a leading challenger to Kane.
Mbappé’s individual quality, goalscoring threat and ability to deliver on the biggest stage make him a serious contender. At 7/4, however, the market movement also means punters considering backing him now face a much shorter price than they would have found just days ago.
Yamal has experienced the opposite movement to Mbappé. The Barcelona winger was best priced at 2/1 just a few days ago, but his odds have since drifted to 7/1.
That is a significant change for a player who had been among the leading contenders. Yamal’s talent and influence for Barcelona and Spain remain clear, but the latest prices suggest the market has become less confident about his chances of winning the award.
At 7/1, he is now a bigger-priced outsider than Mbappé, despite previously being much closer to the front of the betting.
Oddschecker's Ballon dOr Betting Trends
According to Oddschecker data over the last 7 days, Harry Kane leads the Ballon d’Or betting with 38% of bets placed, narrowly ahead of Kylian Mbappe on 37.5%. The gap between the two is minimal, highlighting how closely punters are split between the leading contenders.
Lamine Yamal ranks third, attracting 16.24% of bets placed, while Lionel Messi accounts for 3.07%, leaving him well behind the top three in betting popularity.
According to Oddschecker data, Kylian Mbappe has attracted the most bets placed in the last 24 hours, accounting for 57% of all bets on the top three contenders. Harry Kane ranks second with 28%, while Lamine Yamal accounts for 12%. Mbappe’s significant lead in recent betting activity suggests punters have been backing the French forward heavily over the past day.
