The Masters betting odds market is taking shape with just over two weeks until the start of the tournament, but what trends can help us find this year’s Augusta winner?
With coffers either boosted or booted following the Cheltenham bonanza, attention inevitably turns to Augusta and the year's first Major Championship, The Masters.
Shota Hayafuji gave us all an image to remember last year having helped guide Hideki Matsuyama to his major triumph in Georgia. Having placed the flag back into the cup on the 18th green he faced down the fairway and bowed to the hallowed turf.
That small acknowledgement from Hayafuji was a reminder of how special this place is and just what it means to players and caddies alike to be able to walk the 18 holes. For many, it is the most special grass you'll ever walk upon. What makes it all the sweeter is being able to bow to your betting shop cashier on the following Monday whilst collecting the winning docket.
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With a few weeks to go there is a lot to ponder and we await more evidence before making the decision on who to bet come the first week in April. In the meantime, we can delve into some of the history and see if this points us in any particular direction.
Do we need to target previous Masters winners?
Let's talk about multiple Masters winners. Many punters will place former winners high up their list of potential winners but it is worth noting that since the turn of the century Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson are the only players to oblige.
Tiger and Phil are two of the game’s greatest ever players and sit alongside the likes of Faldo, Nicklaus and Palmer in winning multiple Masters.
Bubba somewhat changed the game with taking lines never seen before on the 13th hole and others on way to winning twice in the space of three years. He capitalised upon what seemed like a turning point at Augusta where it could be tamed by a different method.
If we take it back to Adam Scott's win at Augusta in 2013 (Bubba won it in both 2012 & 2014), here is how each of the winners has placed in the subsequent years.
| YEAR | WINNER | SUBSEQUENT MASTERS FINISHES |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Dustin Johnson | MC |
| 2019 | Tiger Woods | 38-DNP |
| 2018 | Patrick Reed | 36-10-8 |
| 2017 | Sergio Garcia | MC-MC-DNP-MC |
| 2016 | Danny Willett | MC-MC-MC-25-MC |
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | 2-11-3-21-46-3 |
| 2014 | Bubba Watson | 38-37-MC-5-12-57-26 |
| 2013 | Adam Scott | 14-38-42-9-32-18-34-54 |
What we can conclude here is that even though Augusta form is always worth noting in the run up, past winners tend to struggle and Matsuyama may find it difficult, especially with the increase in media attention he will get during the week as opposed to last year.
Instead, should we look to those who may have a little bit more hunger for the Augusta win and a good record here. 9/1 favourite Rahm? McIlroy? Scheffler? Thomas? Smith?
The top 30 in the world rankings is the place to look
We know from recent history the top 30 in the world is the place to look for Major winners. Rarely are they won by players outside this bracket; if that trend is bucked it's usually by someone special, namely Phil Mickelson (125/1 for this year on bet365).
In the past 12 tournaments, nobody with a world ranking lower than 30 has won the Masters. Charl Schwartzel was ranked 29th when he won in 2011, with Patrick Reed the next lowest ranked winner (24th when he won the 2018 Masters).
What are the other top trends to consider?
Keeping in mind the likelihood of a top 30 player donning the Green Jacket on Master Sunday, let’s delve into some of the other recent trends at Augusta.
- Eight of the last 10 winners had posted a top 10 across their three previous starts prior to winning – the only exceptions were Matsuyama and Garcia, who won the Dubai Desert Classic five starts previous
- All winners this century had a top 40 finish at the Masters previously
- Seven of the last 10 winners had a previous top 10 at the Masters
- Five of the last 10 had won earlier in the season
- Excluding the November renewal (obviously played much later in the year than usual), seven of the last 10 winners had not missed a cut that year.
So, who is the last man standing?
We are still a few weeks out but at the time of time of writing there are just two golfers who hit all those above trends and sit inside the top 30 in the world – Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama.
Having concluded that it is extremely difficult to go back-to-back (only Woods, Faldo and Nicklaus have done so), we are left with McIlroy as our number one pick.
There are two more tournaments before we can rubber stamp it, but the early lean trend wise is towards McIlroy (best price 14/1) finally slipping on the green jacket and landing the Grand Slam.
