Masters Tips 2022: Riviera holds the key to finding Augusta winner

If you're old enough to remember Masters coverage from your youth, you'll remember getting three hours of coverage per night and relying solely on teletext for early updates from the final round as we didn't get to see the leaders until they made the turn onto the back nine. 

Thankfully, coverage has improved 10-fold since then and there's little we can't see nowadays, be it live or a few seconds behind. It has also been a romantic tournament to analyse because we have had little or no stats come from the event from many years. In 2021, DataGolf gave us the full array of stats we now know and love and I'll delve into that later.

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What has become one of the most important aspects of picking a major winner is looking at big efforts in recent majors. As the major season progresses we will get a better idea of this and some who perform well at the Masters 2022 can be expected to go on and contend the PGA also. 

Collin Morikawa (18/1 for this year) is the outlier here as he had only one previous major outing (35th in US Open) before landing his victory at Harding Park then going on to even bigger things by winning the Open the following year. Let's have a look at the others...

The last couple of majors are clearly very important in determining who may succeed in the next. Very few players catapult themselves to a major victory like Morikawa did, and we all know how special a talent he is. If we consider those who haven't yet won a major, there are a few who catch the eye when looking at the above results.

• Xander Schauffele (22/1) has finished 3rd and 7th in two of his last four majors
• Tony Finau (66/1) has three top 15s in last four majors and a host of other strong efforts
• Scottie Scheffler (16/1) has three top eight finishes in last three majors
• Robert MacIntyre (125/1) was 8th at the last major and had a previous top 10 at Portrush
• Daniel Berger (40/1) has finished 7th and 8th in last two majors
• Paul Casey (66/1) has two top 10s in last three majors
• Corey Conners (70/1) has two top 10s and two top 20s in last five majors
• Mackenzie Hughes (250/1) came sixth at the Open last year

There are numerous other players with form oozing from recent majors but it may be worth concentrating on those yet to finish the job as we've seen first time major winners increase in the last few decades.

In terms of stats Augusta has long been a mystery so it's worth noting how the winners fared across the season. Tiger Woods didn't record enough rounds in 2019 to get a full season ranking for the main stats but we'll look into the other four most recent winners and see where they finished.

These rankings are of no surprise with the last two winners ranking inside the top 20 on tour on Approach and from Tee to Green (T2G). This is where the Masters is won and lost.

Commentators will keep reminding you of the importance of the short game around Augusta and – while that’s true - eliminating those players who have an average short game heading to Augusta would not have proved fruitful in the past.

Matsuyama's frailties on and around the greens have been evident throughout his career, and although he has seen improvement - especially around the green - he would be far from someone you could rely upon. Garcia is another who has battled short game issues spanning a couple of decades, as well as two time Masters winner Bubba Watson. 

Patrick Reed of course is one who makes his gains on and around the greens, but these examples are sparse when it comes to those who have a green jacket tucked away in their Augusta locker. Short game and putting are important every single week on tour, with some more so than others. 

The lesson here is that any single golfer can perform highly in that category in any given week and it is more volatile than the other stats. Go with those who perform consistently T2G with a potential bigger upside from their short game on the weeks where it's firing.

Thankfully in 2021 we landed some valid stats for this category and we can have a look courtesy of DataGolf. It has been no secret that T2G prowess is the key to unlocking Augusta – and now we have it in black and white. Remarkably nine of the top 10 in the T2G stats finished tied 10th or better last year at the Masters. 

Matsuyama (won) was 2nd T2G, Spieth (3rd) was 1st T2G, Schauffele (3rd) was 3rd T2G and so on. This result is similar to that of the Genesis Invitational played at Riviera. When Niemann won there this year he topped the T2G stat for the week and four others who posted a top seven finish that week also finished inside the top 10 in T2G. 

The result at Riviera was similar in 2021 when four of the first five home ranked in the top five T2G that week. Of course, it is worth noting this stat does include work around the green, so it is always worth paying attention to that side of the argument also. Riviera is a worthy form guide to what may happen at Augusta. Since the turn of the century, let’s look at some winners there. 

The game needed to win both events is very similar and there will no doubt be more overlapping winners and contenders from both events. Joaquin Niemann (50/1), Morikawa, Cameron Young, Max Homa (125/1) and Finau have made up the winners and runner ups at Riviera over the past couple of years and it'd be no surprise to see a couple of those figure at Augusta next week.

Plenty to ponder before tee off on Thursday!