Matt Fitzpatrick looks the pick of those who hit the key trends identified by Niall Lyons for finding the US Open 2022 winner.
The 2022 US Open is nearly upon us and for golf fans across the globe the realisation will soon hit that we're only six weeks away from an almost nine month drought in major championship golf.
Personally, I'd love to see that change. The best golfers in the world try to peak for these few months and often they do, but with majors more spaced out I believe we'd see a different set of results. Trends would change. As of now, there are a few that hold firm and are always worthy of consideration heading into the big four.
Top 30 in the world, previous major appearance and season best certainly appear to be the three most valuable when narrowing down the search for a potential winner. Let's have a look at the last 10 winners of the US Open.
| Winners | Season Best Prior to US Open Win | First Time Major Winner? | Previous Major Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rahm 2021 | 5th Masters *Withdrew Memorial with six-shot lead after 54 holes* | Yes | 8th PGA |
| DeChambeau 2020 | Won Rocket Mortgage | Yes | 4th PGA |
| Woodland 2019 | 2nd Sentry TOC | Yes | 8th PGA |
| Koepka 2018 | 2nd Fort Worth (Injury meant he only played five times before US Open) | No | 13th PGA |
| Koepka 2017 | 2nd Texas Open | Yes | 11th Masters |
| Johnson 2016 | 3rd Memorial | Yes | 4th Masters |
| Spieth 2015 | Won Hyundai TOC | No | Won Masters |
| Kaymer 2014 | Won TPC Sawgrass | Yes | 31st Masters |
| Rose 2013 | 2nd Arnold Palmer | Yes | 25th Masters |
| Simpson 2012 | 3rd Hyundai TOC | Yes | 44th Masters |
Rahm's best finish was 5th that season prior to his US Open win, but we can conclude he certainly would have won the Memorial with his six-shot lead heading into the final day given the golf he was playing at that time. That means the last five winners would have had a win or runner up that season prior to winning the US Open.
The last 10 winners had managed a top three finish that season with only two of the last 10 either not winning or finishing runner up that season prior to winning the major. Eight of the last 10 winners had been first time major winners, and if we extend that, 14 of the last 17 winners of this event were winning their first major championship.
Of the last seven winners the worst Major performance in their previous outing was 13th. That as ever, remains the strongest trend towards finding a winner in these events. These are strong enough trends to delve deeper into the top 30 so let's analyse how those guys have performed this year and who fits the bill.
| Name | Season Best | Previous Major Finish | Won Major? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | Win x4 | MC | Yes |
| Jon Rahm | Win Mexico | 48th | Yes |
| Cameron Smith | Win x2 | 13th | No |
| Collin Morikawa | 2nd Genesis | 55th | Yes |
| Justin Thomas | Won PGA | Won | Yes |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2nd x2 | MC | No |
| Viktor Hovland | Won Dubai | 41st | No |
| Rory McIlroy | Won CJ Cup | 8th | Yes |
| Sam Burns | Won x3 | 20th | No |
| Jordan Spieth | Won Heritage | 34th | Yes |
| Xander Schauffele | 5th Byron Nelson | 13th | No |
| Hideki Matsuyama | Won x2 | 60th | Yes |
| Dustin Johnson | 4th MatchPlay | MC | Yes |
| Will Zalatoris | 2nd x2 | 2nd | No |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 2nd Wells Fargo | 5th | No |
| Tony Finau | 2nd Mexico | 30th | No |
| Billy Horschel | Won Memorial | 68th | No |
| Joaquin Niemann | Won Genesis | 23rd | No |
| Brooks Koepka | 3rd Phoenix | 55th | Yes |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 14th Phoenix | 60th | Yes |
| Abraham Ancer | 5th MatchPlay | 9th | No |
| Sungjae Im | Won Shriners | 8th | No |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 2nd Arnold Palmer | 13th | No |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 25th Sentry | MC | Yes |
| Paul Casey | 3rd TPC Sawgrass | DNP this year | No |
| Harris English | 30th Sentry | DNP this year | No |
| Shane Lowry | 2nd Honda | 23rd | Yes |
| Max Homa | Won x2 | 13th | No |
| Daniel Berger | 4th Honda | MC | No |
| Cameron Young | 2nd x3 | 3rd | No |
The criteria here is top 30 in the world > top three finish that season > top 13 in previous major > non major winner. This leaves us with six candidates. Smith (20/1), Zalatoris (25/1), Fitzpatrick (33/1), Im (66/1), Hatton (50/1) and Young (55/1). A strong bunch to go to war with in a Major Championship and I'd be absolutely amazed should one of these six not place at the very least.
Using true strokes gained data from this calendar year here is how these six rank in the respective SG departments.
| SG Putt | SG ATG | SG App | SG OTT | SG T2G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smith | 10 | 25 | 1 | 90 | 5 |
| Fitzpatrick | 17 | 10 | 45 | 14 | 9 |
| Zalatoris | 115 | 40 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| Im | 46 | 11 | 70 | 15 | 21 |
| Hatton | 5 | 99 | 31 | 74 | 48 |
| Young | 67 | 46 | 62 | 2 | 16 |
At a US Open you'd worry slightly about someone making a lot of their gains through their short game. Smith does that in spades but must be said his approach game is among the best in the world and has to be respected at every major venue.
Zalatoris and Young haven't let their ordinary putting year deter them and although both are still winless on tour they remain one of the more likely winners of these tough events.
There may be a slight question mark as to how the playoff defeat effects Zalatoris and whether he is in any way drained from competing in several majors in the past couple of years but he currently shows no signs up letting up in these Majors and could prove a feature once again.
Hatton has shown a good turn of foot lately and his game off the tee looks to be improving just at the right time. He may look to peak for St Andrews, the scene of a couple of his Links Championship wins (2016 & 2017) and should he show any sort of form at the US Open may shorten quite a lot for the year's final major.
Cameron Young displays all the qualities to be a champion and looks in the same mould of Zalatoris where he is likely to contend these on a regular basis. With no victory to date though, trend wise it may prove to favour one of the others.
Matt Fitzpatrick looks the pick of those who hit the trends given that he played in the final group with Mito Pereira at the PGA and gave it a good run during the back nine there. He will have learned a lot from that experience in how to handle the pressure cooker of a major championship Sunday.
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He will also have learned from the mistakes that the Chilean made and being a first-hand witness to that 72nd hole collapse can only be seen as a positive learning curve from his point of view. Yet to win in the US is a slight negative but he may just benefit from the good vibes of a return to the Country Club in Brookline where he landed the 2013 US Amateur Championship as an 18-year-old.
That may prove the difference and give him the confidence to clear that final hurdle in the States and add the US Open Championship to his Amateur Championship medal.
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