We check on the latest golf betting odds to find the bookmakers' favourite to win the PGA Championship 2023 at Oak Hill.
Who is the favourite to win the PGA Championship 2023?
Reigning Masters champion and world number one Jon Rahm is the favourite (15/2 best price) to win the PGA Championship 2023 at Oak Hill. World number two Scottie Scheffler can be backed at 8/1 through several bookmakers (worst price 15/2). Rory McIlroy is the third favourite at 12/1.
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Last week, Niall Lyons looked at some of the key betting trends to help us identify the likeliest winners of the year's second major. USPGA courses tend to be long and difficult and have been dominated in recent years by those who excel with their tee to green game (T2G).
Eight of the previous 12 winners of the PGA Championship finished that season inside the top 20 in strokes gained (SG) T2G, while seven of the last 12 had won a tournament that season and a further two who hadn't had landed a top five in a major earlier that year.
Here is the top 30 in the world (as of last week and bar Zalatoris who sits this out because of injury) and where they sit in the SG T2G statistic this year as well as if they've won this season or indeed landed a major top 10.
| RANKING | NAME | Masters 2023 Finish | SG Tee To Green 2023 | Win or Major Top 5 in 2023 | Ticks all 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Rahm | Win | 2 | Yes | Y |
| 2 | Scottie Scheffler | 10 | 1 | Yes | Y |
| 3 | Rory McIlroy | MC | 4 | Yes | |
| 4 | Patrick Cantlay | 14 | 8 | No | |
| 5 | Xander Schauffele | 10 | 6 | No | |
| 6 | Max Homa | 43 | 12 | Yes | |
| 7 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 10 | 45 | Yes | |
| 8 | Cameron Smith | 34 | n/a | No | |
| 10 | Jordan Spieth | 4 | 28 | Yes | |
| 11 | Tony Finau | 26 | 3 | Yes | |
| 12 | Viktor Hovland | 7 | 18 | Yes | Y |
| 13 | Sam Burns | 29 | 107 | Yes | |
| 14 | Justin Thomas | MC | 11 | No | |
| 15 | Cameron Young | 7 | 24 | No | |
| 16 | Collin Morikawa | 10 | 5 | No | |
| 17 | Tyrrell Hatton | 34 | 7 | No | |
| 18 | Sungjae Im | 16 | 13 | No | |
| 19 | Tom Kim | 16 | 14 | Yes | |
| 20 | Kurt Kitayama | MC | 68 | Yes | |
| 21 | Tommy Fleetwood | 33 | 9 | No | |
| 22 | Hideki Matsuyama | 16 | 29 | No | |
| 23 | Keegan Bradley | 23 | 39 | Yes | |
| 24 | Sahith Theegala | 9 | 65 | No | |
| 25 | Shane Lowry | 16 | 25 | No | |
| 26 | Joaquin Niemann | 16 | n/a | No | |
| 27 | Corey Conners | MC | 17 | Yes | |
| 28 | Russell Henley | 4 | 44 | Yes | |
| 29 | Billy Horschel | 52 | 149 | No | |
| 30 | Tom Hoge | CUT | 34 | No |
If we look at the table above in relation to the key trends already mentioned, Rahm, Scheffler and Victor Hovland (28/1) are the only three to have either a win or major top 10 this season and sit inside the top 20 in SG T2G for the season.
When was the last major at Oak Hill?
The Donald Ross design at Oak Hill last hosted a major championship 10 years ago for the PGA Championship. It has undergone some changes since then, but this was the leaderboard:
| POS | PLAYER | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jason Dufner | -10 |
| 2 | Jim Furyk | -8 |
| 3 | Henrik Stenson | -7 |
| 4 | Jonas Blixt | -6 |
| T5 | Scott Piercy | -5 |
| T5 | Adam Scott | -5 |
| 7 | David Toms | -4 |
| T8 | Jason Day | -3 |
| T8 | Dustin Johnson | -3 |
| T8 | Zach Johnson | -3 |
| T8 | Rory McIlroy | -3 |
Which golf courses are similar to Oak Hill?
Sedgefield, East Lake and Detroit Golf Club are other Donald Ross designs used on the PGA Tour and it's necessary to look at results from these courses down the years. Here is the performance of the top 30 in the world at these venues.
| NAME | East Lake Form | Sedgefield Form | Detroit Golf Club Form | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 US Open | 2019 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||
| Rahm, Jon | 15 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Scheffler, Scottie | 2 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | CUT | 0 | ||||||||
| Mcilroy, Rory | 1 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 7 | ||||||||||||
| Cantlay, Patrick | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Schauffele, Xander | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | ||||||||||||
| Homa, Max | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 25 | 0 | 42 | |||
| Fitzpatrick, Matthew | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | |||||||
| Smith, Cameron | 20 | 14 | 24 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | CUT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | |||
| Spieth, Jordan | 13 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 72 | MDF | 0 | |||||||
| Finau, Tony | 9 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 0 | ||||||||
| Hovland, Viktor | 15 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | |||
| Burns, Sam | 24 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 42 | |||
| Thomas, Justin | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Young, Cameron | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
| Morikawa, Collin | 21 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | |||||||
| Hatton, Tyrrell | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||
| Im, Sungjae | 2 | 20 | 11 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 53 | 21 | |||
| Kim, Tom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
| Kitayama, Kurt | 20 | 0 | CUT | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Fleetwood, Tommy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 11 | 0 | 65 | 59 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Matsuyama, Hideki | 11 | 26 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 0 | CUT | 0 | CUT | 11 | 0 | WD | 21 | 13 | |||
| Bradley, Keegan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 14 | 45 | 0 | |||
| Theegala, Sahith | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | CUT | 0 | ||||||||
| Lowry, Shane | 83 | 0 | 23 | 0 | CUT | ||||||||||||
| Niemann, Joaquin | 11 | 29 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |||
| Conners, Corey | 26 | 22 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 21 | 0 | CUT | 22 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | CUT | |||
| Henley, Russell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 31 | CUT | 10 | 0 | 0 | CUT | |||
| Horschel, Billy | 21 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | |||
| Hoge, Tom | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | CUT | 27 | MDF | 20 | 0 | CUT | CUT | 64 | |||
There are numerous golfers above who stand out with Ross form, with the pick of the non-major winners potentially being Sungjae Im (35/1), who has five top 10s from 11 appearances at these tracks with only once finishing outside the top 24.
Stand by for Niall's outright tournament preview later today.
