PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is here with his latest power rankings ahead of Round 1 on Thursday from TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.
PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers For The 2023 FedEx St Jude Championship
After an entertaining 2023 PGA Tour season, we've reached the first of three FedExCup playoff events. The top 70 ranked golfers in the FedExCup rankings were decided with the final regular season event at the Wyndham Championship, where veteran Lucas Glover secured his fifth career win over Russell Henley after a brief rain delay.
Justin Thomas, who was the biggest name on the FedEx bubble, came up one stroke short, nearly holing out from a chip shot around the green on the 72nd hole.
It's been a few weeks since we've seen all of the PGA Tour's top golfers competing in the same field, but the FedEx St. Jude Championship is loaded with all of the best players, led by Scottie Scheffler at 13/2, followed by Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm at 8/1 rounding out the top three outright betting favourites.
For Niall Lyons' tournament preview, click here.
The pressure intensifies entering the first of three FedExCup playoff events. Unlike previous years, where 125 golfers qualified, it's been whittled down to the top 70 for the St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. The top 50 advance to the BMW Championship, culminating with the third and final FedExCup playoff event at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, for the 2023 Tour Championship.
Let's look at opening tee times, how to watch the FedEx St. Jude Championship, then analyse some of the current outright betting odds. Then, we'll conduct a course review of TPC Southwind, ending with my top-five power rankings comprised of golfers to bet on in available PGA Tour outright betting markets.
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FedEx St Jude Championship Course
TPC Southwind is a par 71 that runs just south of 7,300 yards in length. It's been the host site for the St. Jude Championship, formerly known as the St. Jude Invitational, which has produced a wide range of winning scorecards. Players will face three par 5s and four par 3s, with two of these par 5s situated on the third and fifth holes.
Water hazards abound here, along with over a dozen doglegged fairways, featuring numerous sand bunkers and tree-lined fairways with tall rough penalizing errant tee shots and approach shots. The greens are smaller than average, featuring undulations, which will create unique lies even with accuracy. The entire golf bag will be relied upon to climb the leaderboard at TPC Southwind.
Tony Finau and Dustin Johnson have been the only outright winners in the past five years to score -20-under-par or lower, showcasing the teeth of the course. Ball striking, total driving, and of course, putting are key stats for success in this course.
| Name | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 7/1 | 6/1 |
| Rory McIlory | 9/1 | 15/2 |
| Jon Rahm | 9/1 | 13/2 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 16/1 | 12/1 |
| Xander Schauffele | 18/1 | 16/1 |
2023 FedEx St Jude Championship Power Rankings | Matt MacKay Outright Bets
Jon Rahm 9/1
Jon Rahm has had a few weeks to prepare for TPC Southwind, which is a course he has consistently produced T10 finishes. The Spaniard already has four outright wins under his belt this season while surging late to briefly challenge Brian Harman at The Open Championship in his last outing. At 8/1, the odds are short, but Rahm ranks first in birdie average and fairway proximity and second in total strokes gained. Let's confidently place a couple of units on Rahm at this price.
Collin Morikawa 25/1
Collin Morikawa has been on the precipice of a few outright wins this year, so betting on him is a bit risky. However, the 26-year-old has five T10 finishes this season and ranks second in strokes gained approaching the green, fourth tee-to-green, and 28th total driving.
The putter has been an issue, but I still like Morikawa's value at 25/1, considering he bounced back from consecutive missed cuts to yield a T5 finish at TPC Southwind in 2022. Let's invest a unit in Morikawa due to his sharp irons and quality driving skillset.
Brian Harman 45/1
I suggested wagering Brian Harman's 120/1 outright odds during the fourth major at The Open Championship a couple of weeks ago, and it hit. So, naturally, we're back on Harman for his second outright win in two consecutive starts.
Yes, we're landing a third of the value we had at Royal Liverpool, but 40/1 is still solid. Especially looking at Harman's previous finishes at TPC Southwind. The Georgia native has gone T11, 75th, and T3 in his last three appearances at this event, so wagering a unit is a smart investment, especially with his red-hot putter and sharp ball-striking ability.
Cam Davis 90/1
Cam Davis continues to be a huge value and is underpriced by oddsmakers. The Aussie has been heating up lately, managing to squeeze into the top 70 to compete at TPC Southwind, where he turned in a T13 finish in 2022.
With five T10 finishes, including two consecutive T10s at the 3M Open and Wyndham, Davis is in a rhythm and could wind up with his second career win on the PGA Tour. He's ranked ninth in strokes gained off-the-tee, 31st tee-to-green, and 14th in total hole outs. 75/1 is worth sprinkling half a unit on Davis' outright odds due to his current form and course history.
Harris English 95/1
We watched Harris English nearly pull off the outright win at TPC Southwind in 2020, going -5-under-par or better in each of the first three rounds before a quieter -2-under-par in the final round. It was an under-the-radar outing, as Dustin Johnson won at -30-under-par, beating English by 11 strokes, but it's worth noting that he's been successful here in the past.
English has four outright wins on the PGA Tour, ranks 17th in strokes gained putting, and 20th in strokes gained around the green. He's definitely worth sprinkling a quarter unit on ahead of Thursday's opening round from Memphis.
