The odds suggest a return in May is the most likely scenario
The news broke yesterday that the BHA has extended the suspension of horse racing, with no set date for a return. The state of racing in Britain is currently a murky picture. With lockdown being set to be extended for another three weeks, horse racing fans are looking at a lengthy period with no racing.
However, it is not all bad news, as a return to action in May is currently the most likely outcome according to the bookmakers. In the ‘When will horse racing resume in the UK’ market, a return in May is priced at 10/11.
Further signs of encouragement are offered by the Betfair Exchange. They have a market of ‘UK racing to resume on or before 1st June’ which currently has the ‘Yes’ option available to back at 1.68. This is a 60% chance that racing will start up again by that date. Over £108,000 has been matched on this market.
A return in June looks is the second most likely date, currently priced at 13/8 by Coral and Ladbrokes. July comes in at 6/1, with August and September or late options both priced at an unlikely 11/1.
The bookmakers clearly think we will be racing by the end of June at the very latest which is a cause for optimism in these challenging times.
The Betfair Exchange backs up this viewpoint, with another market of ‘UK racing to resume on or before 1st July.’ This has only been introduced in the last day, meaning a small amount has been traded on the market.
Nonetheless, the ‘Yes’ option is priced at 1.25, which is an implied probability of 80%. Clearly, punters are thinking along the same lines as bookmakers when it comes to when we will see racing get back on its feet.
The Betfair Exchange has another interesting market. Their ‘Will racing go ahead? Royal Ascot 16th June’ has seen £135,000 matched on the event. Ascot has said they will hold the meeting behind closed doors if possible but the market suggests it may be difficult.
The ‘No’ option is currently 1.62, with ‘Yes’ priced at 2.52. People are taking the view it may just be too hard to stage such a big event so soon, even if there are no crowds. It is still relatively tight and a lot will change in the coming weeks.
These are uncertain times and racing should only start up again when it is entirely safe to do so. The markets suggest this will be sometime in May, but a lot is still up in the air. Hopefully, we can still salvage some of this flat season, getting the industry moving again. It will bring much-needed joy to fans across the country in the coming months.
Oddschecker spokesperson Callum Wilson: "Without getting ahead of ourselves - the resumption of racing looks like it's going to be sooner rather than later - if the bookies are to be believed.
"The month of May is an odds-on favourite and has received around 60% of all bets over the last week, in what will be reassuring news for punters."
