Architect Tips looks ahead to 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, where it will take “one hell of a performance” to beat ante-post favourite and Craven Stakes winner, Native Trail.
The feature race of the day yesterday at Newmarket was the bet365 Craven Stakes, where all eyes were on the unbeaten and odds-on favourite Native Trail for the boys in blue and he undeniably strengthened his case as the one they all have to beat in the 2000 Guineas with a dominant performance in the hands of William Buick.
We learnt was that he had no issue stepping up to a mile, as he travelled beautifully. Once William asked him to lengthen and go through the gears, the response was immediate as he powered away to a comfortable three-and-a-half length win extending his unbeaten record to five.
11111
— oddschecker Racing (@oddsRacing) April 13, 2022
Native Trail lands the Craven Stakes and extends his unbeaten run. Next up, the 2000 Guineas.
He's been cut from 9/4 to 6/4 in places with 2/1 still available.
@RacingTV pic.twitter.com/qTsvHPTBa1
Unsurprisingly, that performance saw his odds for the 2000 Guineas shorten instantly; he’s now best priced 6/4 (in from 9/4 yesterday) to win the Classic at the end of the month.
It is going to take one hell of a performance to bring an end to Native Trail’s winning sequence but is his price value at this stage? I’m not quite sure but it does look like his race to lose as there appears to be very few chinks, if any, in his armour.
Perhaps stablemate Coroebus (currently best priced 7/2), who did a nice piece of work on the gallops yesterday morning, is the main danger to the former.
He returned an impressive winner of the Autumn Stakes over the Rowley Mile in the autumn and Charlie Appleby recently expressed that he intends to skip the Greenham Stakes and head straight to the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket with James Doyle expected to take the ride.
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Aidan O’Brien, meanwhile, has two leading prospects in the shape of Luxembourg (best price 9/2), who maintained his unbeaten record in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes when last spotted alongside Point Lonsdale (10/1), who could renew rivalry with Native Trail, who ended his unbeaten record of five in the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes back in September.
He could be set to try and reverse the form but will need to have improved since we last saw him in order to gain revenge, which looks a tall order given how impressive Native Trail was on his return.
At an even bigger price, however, Richard Fahey’s Perfect Power at a best price 20/1 could offer some value to punters. A two-time Group 1 winner last term, this three-year-old has yet to compete over a mile but the manner in which he’s finished his races strongly suggests the step up in distance could suit and therefore cannot be discounted.
It has the makings to be one of the strongest 2000 Guineas in recent years. If all four at the top of the betting are declared at the final declarations stage, then we are in for a real treat in just over two weeks’ time at HQ.
| Horse | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Native Trail | 6/4 | 5/4 |
| Coroebus | 7/2 | 11/4 |
| Luxembourg | 9/2 | 4/1 |
| Point Lonsdale | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| Dubawi Legend | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| Perfect Power | 20/1 | 12/1 |
*Odds accurate as of 12:00 on 14/04/2022
