Baaeed is the undoubted star turn in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday, but Architect Tips believes there is value further down the betting market.
The Group 1 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes takes place at Newbury this weekend and it is set to be another high-class and hugely informative renewal for which a strong field of nine runners have been declared, with the exceptional and unbeaten star attraction Baaeed making his eagerly-awaited return to action at the head of the market (1/2 favourite).
Baaeed well set for reappearance at Newbury
Trainer William Haggas has said that “everything’s gone according to plan; so far we haven’t had a blip”. This is a good sign, of course, but his task will be far from straightforward as Saeed bin Suroor’s dual Group Two winner Real World (best price 9/1) is set for a return to turf after failing to handle the dirt in either the Saudi Cup or the Dubai World Cup, while Richard Hannon will be represented by Chindit (18/1) and Etonian (100/1).
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Mother Earth the bookies second favourite
The main danger to Baaeed according to the bookies is Aidan O’Brien’s top-class filly Mother Earth, who won both the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Prix Rothschild at Deauville last term in good style and is currently second-favourite at best price 6/1.
Some will fancy her to turn over the favourite given she’s race-fit on the back of a winning return in the Group Three Park Express Stakes at the Curragh in late March.
What’s the main target for Baaeed?
Baaeed, the son of Sea The Stars, enjoyed a fantastic debut campaign last term, where he progressed through the ranks since his Leicester debut victory to complete his season unbeaten in six, including a pair of Group 1 victories.
Firstly, in the Prix Moulin De Longchamp in Paris before taking the scalp of the classy Palace Pier in the QEII on Champions Day at Ascot in mid-October, solidifying his status as one of the best horses in the world.
His main target is likely to be the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, for which he’s best price 4/5, with those odds likely to shorten if successful on his reappearance this weekend. All eyes will be on the potential superstar in the field as he gets his season under way with Jim Crowley doing the steering and with very few chinks in his armour, if any, I expect him to pass this test with flying colours.
Where’s the value in the Lockinge Stakes?
Despite what I’ve said about the chances of Baaeed, and I do expect him to win, the price of 1/2 wouldn’t be for my liking. Maybe for a multiple bet, but one who holds a better chance than her huge odds of 16/1 might suggest is ALCOHOL FREE, trained by Andrew Balding.
| Horse | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Baaeed | 1/2 | 2/5 |
| Mother Earth | 6/1 | 9/2 |
| Real World | 9/1 | 7/1 |
| Alcohol Free | 16/1 | 10/1 |
| Chindit | 18/1 | 16/1 |
| New Mandate | 20/1 | 16/1 |
| Sunray Major | 33/1 | 25/1 |
| Sir Busker | 66/1 | 40/1 |
| Etonian | 100/1 | 66/1 |
Alcohol Free is closely matched with Mother Earth on their respective clashes in last year’s 1000 Guineas and the Falmouth Stakes where the former was just in behind Aidan O'Brien's filly in third but she had beaten that rival in the Coronation Stakes and went on to gain her second Group 1 in the Sussex Stakes.
She ended last season on a rather disappointing note but shaped quite well on her seasonal debut to finish third in the bet365 Mile despite returning a beaten favourite and should be spot on for this weekend’s test in regard to fitness. She was behind Baaeed in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last season but was probably burnt out for the campaign as it was her seventh outing for the season and I expect a better performance this time round.
Essentially, she’s two-from-two at Newbury, so the track will hold no fears and conditions will be ideal in order to put her best foot-forward. While I acknowledge that the favourite is probably going to win and continue where he left off last season, at double-figure digits this two-time Group 1 winner is overpriced and could easily fill the frame so is therefore the standout each-way value in this weekend’s feature contest.
