Architect Tips takes us through the big news stories from Leopardstown and the impact on ante-post markets for the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.
As most would have expected beforehand, the aftermath of day three of Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, which featured the feature race of the week, the Grade 1 Savills Chase, was always going to have an impact on the Cheltenham Festival ante-post markets.T
hat proved to be case as Conflated returned an impressive winner of the feature race, which earned him quotes of 12/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.
Home By The Lee now favourite for Stayers Hurdle after Christmas Hurdle success
It sadly wasn’t to be for the leading fancies Flooring Porter and Bob Olinger in the Christmas Hurdle who were both well beaten in fourth and fifth but the Joseph O’Brien-trained Home By The Lee proved his Grade Two Lismullen Hurdle success at 28/1 to be no fluke as he ground out victory to see off Ashdale Bob to land a first Grade One of his career.
Always handy, Home By The Lee and Ashdale Bob tracked last year’s second Flooring Porter and once Bob Olinger started to back-pedal, the pair loomed up large on the outside of the two-time Stayers’ Hurdle winner on the home turn and while Ashdale Bob travelled best, Home By The Lee found enough in reserve to see out the trip well under JJ Slevin and win by three lengths.
Home By The Lee wins the Jack De Bromhead Christmas Hurdle!
— oddschecker Racing (@oddsRacing) December 28, 2022
A fantastic performance from the stayer@itvracing pic.twitter.com/Sf7tXRn3Ys
His winning performance saw bookmakers cut him into 15/2 favourite from 20/1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle and there’s every chance he will improve on last year’s sixth in the race. The runner-up Ashdale Bob, who I advised ante-post for the Stayers’ Hurdle at 33/1 pre-race, ran a solid race in defeat and has been quoted up at 14/1 by most bookmakers. He is a lively player in March.
As for Flooring Porter, who could only finish fourth in this race this time round, he was pushed out to 9/1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle. He is well-suited to the demands of Cheltenham given he has won the Stayers’ for the last two seasons but he has looked far from his best this season so far and would need to bounce back if he’s to lift the trophy for a third consecutive time.
Conflated an impressive winner of the Savills Chase
While his task was made a bit more straightforward after Gold Cup hero A Plus Tard was withdrawn on veterinary advice, Gordon Elliott’s Conflated entered the Gold Cup picture after landing a second course-and-distance Grade 1 in the Savills Chase as he dispatched his rivals with authority under a confident Jack Kennedy ride.
Kemboy adopted his customary pace-setting role in the hands of Paul Townend and at the halfway stage, Conflated was sent up to contest the lead by Jack Kennedy and while both the front pair went hammer and tongue up the head of affairs, it was Conflated who poured on the pressure and steadily began to draw clear on the home-bend.
Whilst former winner of the race Kemboy, a winner of this race in 2018 and fourth, second and third in each of the past three years gave a valiant chase, last season’s Irish Gold Cup winner had too many gears on the day and cruised to a five-lengths success with stablemate Fury Road coming from further back to pick up third. Having previously pushed Clan Des Obeaux close in the Bowl at Aintree, he is now recognised as a leading player for the Gold Cup.
Conflated is now between 10/1 and 14/1 for the Gold Cup. https://t.co/JSuayQxVp6
— oddschecker (@oddschecker) December 28, 2022
A lot of firms were quick to react to his impressive victory as they slashed his price into as short as 12/1 from 33/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He fell when booked for second in the Ryanair last season over shorter but he is proving to be even better over further and could still be fair value at his current odds for next March’s showpiece.
As for A Plus Tard’s late absence from the race, his price remains unaltered at 9/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. Given the fact that his whole season so far hasn’t gone to according to plan after his no-show here following his Betfair Chase disappointment, it remains to be seen as to whether he will be found a confidence-booster elsewhere as plan b or head straight to the Gold Cup, which is far from an ideal preparation.
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