Architect Tips assesses the winners and losers from the handicap weights reveal for the Cheltenham Festival 2023.
With less than two weeks to go until the start of the Cheltenham Festival, the weights plus ratings for all the handicaps across the four-day meeting are now public.
In the aftermath of the announcement of the weights, it is fair to say some intended runners were given a fair weight and mark, while others weren’t so nicely treated.
So who were the winners and losers from the Cheltenham weights? Here I have collated a list of eight horses to put under the microscope. Some might surprise you, some might not.
Ultima Handicap Chase
Next Destination - WINNER
NEXT DESTINATION (14/1) was a high-class horse when trained by Willie Mullins with plenty of quality form to his name. He has raced sparingly throughout his career given he’s fragile but this former Grade 1-winning hurdler, who was third in the 2018 Ballymore at the Cheltenham Festival, took well to the larger obstacles in the 2020/21 season, winning his first two chase starts.
Those wins came in a pair of Grade 2 events before returning to the Cheltenham Festival in 2021 to contest the National Hunt Chase. He ran a great race to finish second to Galvin and was rated 153 going into that assignment. He hasn’t been seen since but has joined Nicky Henderson and I think this will be the race he turns up in should he line up at the Festival for a fourth time.
He has made the frame in all three previous visits to the Festival and the assessor has kindly allotted him a weight of just 11-0 plus a nice mark of 145 for his handicap debut. Based upon his overall form, he is well-handicapped if he makes his stable debut here and makes plenty of appeal despite his absence.
Betfred
- Huge range of regular promotions
- 24/7 live chat service
- PickYourPunt builder for custom bets
Lifetime Ambition - LOSER
I don’t think Jessie Harrington will be best pleased with the mark and weight LIFETIME AMBITION has received here. The eight-year-old has been consistent so far in his career but he finds himself 8lb higher than when beaten in the Troytown, so he is going to need a personal best if he lines up in this race lumping 11-13 off 158.
His latest fourth in a Grade 2 was slightly underwhelming and he lacks course form at Cheltenham as well, which is a negative. He might be the horse you want to rely on to make the frame but he has a tough task on his hands carrying such a big weight off a near-impossible mark to win this. It would be an incredible performance but the reality is, that is unlikely to happen unless everything falls into his lap.
His only other entry is the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase, so while that race is deep, I think he would be better suited to it and have more of a chance of being involved. He’s the sort of horse to sit on the fence with in regards to his mark because he’s short of Grade 1-winning form but is too high in the handicap. Perhaps connections will bite the bullet and just wait for the Grand National instead.
Boodles Juvenile Hurdle
Perseus Way - WINNER
Gary Moore might be satisfied with the mark PERSEUS WAY (10/1) has been given for the Boodles as I think that’s really lenient given what he has already achieved over hurdles. He might have beaten Nusret last weekend in the Grade 2 Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle but for making a mistake at the last hurdle when two lengths clear.
All the momentum was with the eventual winner, who took full advantage of his mistake but I loved the way he stuck to the task when headed to rally towards the finish as the pair drew clear of the well-touted Rare Middleton. I think an opening mark of 132 carrying just 11-0 is really essential in the context of this race.
He has won two of his five hurdle starts and has placed in the other three, which have all been in good-quality Grade 2 races. All in all, Gary Moore’s smart youngster has an excellent each-way chance off a nice weight from an attractive mark if he features in the final declarations with some of the best form on offer of the entries.
Grand Annual Chase
Saint Roi - WINNER
I have put up SAINT ROI as an ante-post bet on my column for the Arkle Chase but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if connections decided to tackle the Grand Annual as a mark of 153 could prove exploitable despite being high up in the weights.
The only horse above him in the weights is last year’s second Andy Dufresne, who is on the same mark of 155, and let’s face it, Saint Roi has a lot of Grade 1 form in the book, including a success at the highest level back in December, which reads well.
He unseated his rider in the Irish Arkle last time when still going well and that could prove to be a blessing in disguise. He’s a County Hurdle winner at the Festival and was fourth in last season’s Champion Hurdle. I think he has seriously strong claims if he lines up.
Pertemps Network Final
Shewearsitwell - LOSER
The Willie Mullins-trained SHEWEARSITWELL has received a high-enough mark of 148 in my opinion for the Pertemps. I know she beat Queen’s Brook last-time-out but I don’t think the runner-up was at her best that day and my instinct tells me not to trust the form.
It would make sense for her to tackle the Ryanair Mares’ Hurdle instead, which is her only other entry, as she only scrambled home over this distance on her penultimate start and the second, My Immortal, is only rated 130.
With this in mind, I cannot help but feel as though a mark of 148, which is 11 pounds higher than that neck victory mentioned, is excessive and this is a tougher race. The better option would be to tackle her own sex in the Mares over a favourable distance.
Plate Handicap Chase
Midnight River - LOSER
The Magners Plate Handicap Chase is always a difficult race to dissect and Dan Skelton’s MIDNIGHT RIVER will need to find more improvement to back-up his Paddy Power New Year's Day Chase win to succeed here off a seven pounds higher mark should he line up in this contest.
He did the job well last time but a seven pounds rise seems harsh and I have never thought he is a 150+ rated individual. I could be wrong but he has already been beaten off lower marks over hurdles and over fences and there seems to be better treated rivals in this race, though his course form is a bonus.
County Hurdle
Zanahiyr - LOSER
ZANAHIYR’s season is in danger of being a complete disaster and his season could get a lot worse if he goes for this race, as a mark of 157 for a horse who has declined this season seems really savage.
Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old finished third in last season’s Champion Hurdle but has recently been disqualified from that race due to a banned substance and he has subsequently turned in a lacklustre performance when last of five in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
It would be some training performance if he bounced back to his best in this race but that looks doubtful and, ideally, he would have more of a chance in the Coral Cup despite his stamina being unproven over the distance.
The Model Kingdom - WINNER
Noel Meade’s THE MODEL KINGDOM a fascinating entry in the County Hurdle, who also has the option of the Ryanair Mares but could for the County Hurdle handicap instead after she has been given a pretty handy mark of 134 here.
She has won five of her nine starts and has been unfortunate to bump into some really good prospects in her three defeats in this sphere. This six-year-old mare is a strong-traveller and has plenty of class.
She will get a lovely pace to aim at in this larger-field scenario and she holds a far better chance than the market indicates now that the weights and ratings have been published. Great each-way chance.
