Andy Holding with his latest thoughts on the two Group 1 Classics at Epsom next weekend.
With some of the last throws of the dice made by several Derby and Oaks candidates this week, it is now probably a good time to reflect on what has occurred over the last month or so regarding who is in the driving seat for those two Group 1 Classics at Epsom next weekend.
2023 Epsom Derby Odds
Military Order (7/2) is the favourite for the colts’ contest following his taking performance in the Lingfield trial and it is hard to argue with that given the numbers he posted at the Surrey venue.
In what was a strongly run race of its kind, Charlie Appleby’s inmate proved extremely tenacious in the latter stages to fend off the persistent challenge of Waipiro and with the boxes ticked regards trip, being well balanced and the going on the day come what may, the imposing three-year-old has all the attributes to follow in the footsteps of previous winners from his stable, Masar and Adayar.
The Dante was the other notable trial to produce a big speed figure and although not everyone was pleased with the eventual outcome, it would be dangerous to underestimate the form.
The winner, The Foxes (pictured above), had solid form at a high level prior to shipping up on the Knavesmire, so it was not a massive shock he was good enough to oblige, and despite several others getting their wires crossed, he came out of the race a worthy Derby contender.
The runner-up, White Birch, did his futures prospects no harm with a career high effort and it is easy to make a strong case out for him hitting the frame in the Epsom Derby at the very least.
The way he finished off his race from the back of the field pointed towards him being a strong stayer at the trip and if he does find the contours of the Surrey venue counting against him, that certainly will not be the case come the St Leger around the wide-open spaces of Doncaster.
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Epsom Derby Ante-Post Preview
Many will view Passenger unlucky in the Dante, none more so than his pilot Richard Kingscote, and while that may be true, whether just two runs is sufficient experience to land the world’s oldest Classic is open to debate. Still, there is no denying his raw ability and if connections decide to supplement him, the decision by connections will have to be taken seriously.
Prior to the last vital clues at York, both Arrest and San Antonio threw their caps in the ring with victories at Chester and, while the two sets of figures they achieved were not earth-shattering by any stretch of the imagination, they still must be regarded as viable contenders.
The former would be a great way for Frankie to sign off before his retirement and his mount certainly has enough stamina to provide the Italian with realistic hope, while the latter, not considered Ballydolye’s number one hope, will also see the trip out better than most.
Augustine Rodin (9/2) remains one of the favourites for the Derby according to both trainer and bookmakers alike but there is no doubt he still has questions to ask regardless of all the hype.
Whether it was his sketchy preparation for the 2000 Guineas, the trip or a combination of both, there is no getting away from the fact he was extremely disappointing and, as a result, he makes limited appeal at his current price.
2023 Epsom Oaks Odds
While the Derby picture still appears a little unclear, the same cannot be said for the fillies’ version, with Savethelastdance (6/4) seemingly head and shoulders above her compatriots.
The overall time figure and, in particular, her well-documented backend sectionals compared to Arrest over the same C&D, suggests she has to be rated as top class and with stamina and ability to quicken proven, it is hard to see her not landing another Oaks for her connections.
Epsom Oaks Ante-Post Preview
In contrast to the Cheshire Oaks won by Savethelastdance (pictured above), the Musidora at York - won by Soul Sister - was noted for its slow speed figure, so while John & Thady Gosden’s inmate proved she can quicken well off a steady pace, it remains a bit of a guessing game whether she can repeat the dose when the tempo is considerably higher in the Epsom Oaks.
On the numbers, her stable mate Running Lion posted much more convincing data at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting and she makes far more appeal as a solid each-way alternative to the favourite at this stage.
