The Derby is the second of two Classics at Epsom on the horizon.
Just as in Guineas weekend at Newmarket, one classic quickly follows the next on Derby weekend.
As is the case with the Oaks, the beaten Guineas favourite retains their position at the top of the betting for the Epsom Derby. Indeed, Aidan O'Brien is the most successful trainer of the race with nine wins
If City of Troy was to bounce back in a similar fashion to last year's winner Auguste Rodin than he could notch a 10th win.
Epsom Derby Odds
| Derby Odds | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| City Of Troy | 2/1 | 7/4 |
| Ambiente Friendly | 5/1 | 4/1 |
| Los Angeles | 13/2 | 5/1 |
| Ancient Wisdom | 14/1 | 10/1 |
Epsom Derby Runners
The five-day confirmation stage for the Derby at Epsom comes on Monday, but there are four runners separating themselves from the pack in the ante-post market.
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City of Troy
Unbeaten in three starts at two, the son of Justify looked to have the world at his feet going into his classic season. Indeed, the bookmakers agreed as they priced him up as the 4/6 favourite for the Newmarket classic. However, he could only beat two rivals home as he trailed in nearly 17 lengths behind the winner in ninth.
It is thought that he got upset in the stalls that day, something he hasn't done before but that excuse doesn't seem to equate to his run. It was noted before the race that the strike rate for progeny of Justify drops off sharply after the juvenile season and City of Troy's lacklustre performance only compounded these worries.
He only raced over seven furlongs at two and whilst he was always strong at the finish, he really is stepping into unknown territory over 1m 4f. The ability is there but so are the doubts and there are many other 2/1 shots about who don't carry such concerns.
Although Auguste Rodin bounced back from a blow out in the Guineas to win this last year, that doesn't set any precedent and he is best avoided.
Ambiente Friendly
The second favourite in the betting is James Fanshawe's Ambiente Friendly who was most recently seen winning the Lingfield Derby Trial this month. He was impressive that day, too, running out a four and a half-length winner from Aiden O'Brien's Illinois.
After he was beaten into fourth in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket's Craven meeting it was positive to see him take a forward step with the step up in trip. Indeed, he seemed more outpaced than anything at Newmarket and did plug on into fourth.
He looked all stamina at Lingfield in a truly run race (102.9% finishing speed) and proved himself to be comfortable with undulations.
Anthony Van Dyck was the last horse to win at Lingfield before again at Epsom in 2019 but both Third Realm and English King went on to run promising races too.
Although conditions are positive however, his form does look a level below some of his rivals and he will need to take another step forward to win.
Los Angeles
One of the only unbeaten horses in the field is Ballydoyle's Los Angeles. This daughter of Camelot won twice at two including the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud and made a winning reappearance this year in Leopardstown's Derby Trial Stakes.
Although impressive, he only beat Euphoric by a length, a horse who was beaten over two times further in a conditions race the time before.
His sire Camelot won both the Epsom Derby and the Irish Derby so there seems no concerns about the step up to 1m 4f but the Criterium de Saint-Cloud also took a form knock with 2nd placed Stunning Peach and 3rd placed Illinois both beaten next time out.
Being unbeaten, it cannot be said that Los Angeles doesn't have the ability, but I would argue that we haven't seen the required level of form to be winning this race yet.
Ancient Wisdom
Ancient Wisdom is another horse who has slightly had his juvenile bubble burst. A winner of four of his five starts at two, this son of Dubawi had connections excited. His final win in the Group 1 Kameko Futurity Trophy Stakes really demonstrated his ability and his stamina.
Having won on both good to firm and heavy ground, he has proven to be versatile regarding underfoot conditions too. The disappointment was last time out in the Dante stakes where he was a beaten favourite as William Haggas's Economics ran out a six length winner.
Although Charlie Appleby's star has won on good to firm ground, I would argue he is better suited to softer conditions with both his Group 3 Autumn Stakes win and his Group 1 futurity win on soft and heavy ground.
Indeed, his only defeat to date has come on good ground. As such, his defeat in the Dante on good ground could be slightly excusable and stepping up further in trip, he could come into the reckoning if the heavens open.
Epsom Derby Date
The 2024 Epsom Derby will be run at 4.30pm at Epsom Downs racecourse on Saturday 1st June. The race is scheduled to be broadcast live on ITV.
Epsom Derby Tips
I do think the Ancient Wisdom form line is the one to be with but perhaps it may pay to side with DANCING GEMINI at a bigger price (14/1 on Sky Bet).
Roger Teal's son of Camelot was twice beaten by Ancient Wisdom at two but I thought he took a forward step on his seasonal reappearance in the French 2000 Guineas.
He ran on strongly from the back that day to only be beaten 1/2 length and was expected to come on well for the run.
As mentioned he is by Camelot which gives good signs regarding the step up in trip and he is a different angle into the race with Ancient Wisdom perhaps wanting more rain.
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