The top four in the ante-post betting market held their ground today for next month’s Derby at Epsom.
We are less than three weeks out from the Epsom Derby and the race is starting to take shape. In this article what we are going to do is take a look at the main contenders, see how popular they have been in the market and then give an outline to all of their chances in the big race.
Epsom Derby Odds
The current favourite among the entered runners for this year’s renewal is The Lion In Winter (5/2 Betfred) who bids to give Aidan O’Brien an 11th win in the Derby.
He was exceptional as a 2yo winning both starts in good style and in the second of his two wins, he put the 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court in his place over 7 furlongs at York.
The Lion In Winter remains Epsom bound for the Derby but the following runners are all out at today's scratching stage - the last before confirmations on Monday 2nd June. Twain for Aidan O'Brien had been the fifth favourite before today (as short as 7/1 just last Thursday).
- Acapulco Bay – Aidan O’Brien
- Calla Lagoon – Ralph Beckett
- Devil’s Advocate – John & Thady Gosden
- Enea – Mario Baratti
- Green Impact – Jessica Harrington
- Hotazhell – Jessica Harrington
- Isambard Brunel – Aidan O’Brien
- Mount Kilimanjaro – Aidan O’Brien
- Pinhole – Ralph Beckett
- Push The Limit – Ralph Beckett
- Rock of Cashel – Aidan O’Brien
- Royal Playwright – Andrew Balding
- Seacruiser – Ralph Beckett
- Spanish Voice – Andrew Balding
- Thrice – Aidan O’Brien
- Trinity College – Aidan O’Brien
- Twain – Aidan O’Brien
The Derby is of course over a trip 5 furlongs further than that run but as a horse by Sea The Stars, The Lion In Winter should by pedigree be able to see out the trip in time. Now he had gone on a slight drift in the market after defeat on his 3yo debut in the Dante, but reports didn’t necessarily suggest he was 100% fit for the run so you would hope that he would come on for it.
This was also his first attempt up at 1m2f so he did have a few excuses and it would still be no surprise to see him come on a ton for that effort. Another angle that seems to have grabbed punters attention is the fact that Aidan O’Brien has had horses beat before winning the Derby in recent years too, so the first-time out loss can be given a bit of grace.
In 2023 Auguste Rodin finished 12th in the 2000 Guineas, then last year City Of Troy finished 9th in the 2000 Guineas, but both went on to win at Epsom and I think this is what punters are keeping the faith in. That first run of the season hasn’t scared many away though and he is proving to be very popular having taken 25% of the total bets placed through oddschecker since the latest entry stage.
Delacroix is another representative of Aidan O’Brien and Ballydoyle and he went favourite for a couple of days after The Lion In Winter was beat on seasonal debut. This is a colt that also deserves major respect and he has done nothing but improve this season. Delacroix is available at 5/1 best price which looks fair considering he has strong credentials to offer and he has continued to come in for steady support as the season has gone on.
It’s not too great surprise either as he looks like a really powerful colt who travels very well in his races, and I like the fact he is so straightforward too. His two starts this season have both been in Group 3’s where he improved from his first start to his second which is very encouraging and he sets a fair standard considering he looks sure to stay the extra distance in a Derby.
The fact that his rivals have a little bit to prove out in trip, makes him quite appealing at this stage and he is a strong addition the Ballydoyle team. He has less to prove than most so it’s no surprise to see that he has been popular amongst punters.
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This year’s 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court has an exceptional profile as a Justify colt and he was very good at Newmarket. Going from a Guineas over the mile trip, to a Derby over 1m4f isn’t going to be easy, but he goes in as a Group 1 winner now and does look like the extra trip will be within range.
That being said, he hasn’t proven to be as popular as you would perhaps expect with the credentials that he has on offer. This doesn’t look to be the greatest Derby field we have seen but Ruling Court has proven his class this season already and has to come into the equation.
It’s just interesting though that he was taking up nearly 10% of the placed bets for the Derby before his Guineas win, but since the 6th of May to the present, he has only taken roughly 6% of the bets placed since.
If you follow markets, you would have expected that percentage to perhaps increase after his Guineas win but it hasn’t, and that may be a slight concern for those that like to watch how the markets take shape. It doesn’t worry me personally as he looks to be improving run for run, but it is noteworthy that punters haven’t followed the hype after his Guineas win.
The surprise package this season is the Ralph Beckett trained Pride Of Arras who has emerged as a genuine contender here. He won a maiden as a 2yo and then wasn’t seen for nearly 300 days, but he returned to action as a 3yo by winning the Dante on his very first start of the season.
It was a huge performance because he travelled so strongly throughout and when he was asked to win his race, he really stuck his neck out and found a strong turn of foot which was very eye-catching.
A strong case can be made for the favourite The Lion In Winter coming on for his first start of the season, but you can easily say the same for the winner here who beat him by nearly 6 lengths. I’d say it’s certainly no given that the form gets reversed because Pride Of Arras looked superb.
He is by New Bay and out of a Dam that has produced three other horses and all have won when they have stepped up to 1m4f. It’s very possible that this colt still has a lot more to offer. I mentioned how Ruling Court winning the Guineas didn’t fill the public with much confidence with regards to his Derby hopes, but Pride Of Arras’ win in the Dante has got punters latched on to him and he is proving to be very popular indeed.
These four horses take up the vast majority of the bets placed through oddschecker this year and if the percentages prove correct, then The Lion In Winter will win the Derby, followed by Delacroix in second, Pride Of Arras in third and then Ruling Court fourth.
It will be interesting to see how this race pans out, and it’s worth keeping an eye on the markets here on oddschecker as we get closer to the big race.
Derby Betting
| Derby Winner | % Bets This Year | % Since Last Scratching |
|---|---|---|
| The Lion In Winter | 23 | 25 |
| Delacroix | 11 | 13.6 |
| Ruling Court | 9.5 | 6.1 |
| Pride Of Arras | 7.2 | 11.7 |
