The Arc De Triomphe, is it all about Girl Power…and if so, where’s the ante-post value?
I’m taking a look at the success that fillies are having in The Arc and how that trend has changed over recent years as well as looking ahead to October and 6 that should be on your radar from an Ante-Post perspective.
It will always be up for debate, across both codes of the sport as to whether these high class fillies and mares should be receiving 7lbs allowance from the colts and geldings but has improved and a better invested Fillies/Mares program, over recent decades, led to there being a strong bias towards fillies and mares in this French showpiece event in October?
Historic Winning Percentages (Fillies vs Colts)
Through the entire history of The Arc, the race winners are broken down as follows:
- 3 Year Old Colts - 48 Wins
- 4 Year Old Colts - 21 Wins
- 5 Year Old + Horses - 8 Wins
Total = 77
- 3 Year Old Fillies - 13 Wins
- 4 Year Old Fillies - 11 Wins
- 5 Year Old+ Mares - 2 Wins
Total = 26
That means that fillies and mares as a whole, through the history of The Arc represent 33% of the winners in this event but if we look at more recent history that figure rises significantly.
There was a long wait for a filly winner following the success of Urban Sea in 1993 and it wasn’t until Zarkava won this event 15 years later in 2008. She of course, is the grandmother to the super talented, somewhat divisive and certainly quirky, Zarigana and we’ll get to her later.
Recent History Winning Percentages (Fillies vs Colts)
Following that win by Zarkava in 2008 with Christophe Soumillon on board for The Aga Khan, a filly/mare has won The Arc on 10 occasions, from the last 17 renewals:
- 2008 - Zarkava
- 2011 - Danedream
- 2012 - Solemia
- 2013 - Treve
- 2014 - Treve
- 2016 - Found
- 2017 - Enable
- 2018 - Enable
- 2022 - Alpinista
- 2024 - Bluestocking
So since 2008, a massive 59% of wins are coming from the girls. Now it could be argued that we had some exceptional fillies within that time period given that both Treve and Enable won this back-to-back but even so the trend is clear and perhaps the 7lbs allowance is a punters gift when it comes to these very high class fillies and that should be a starting point when looking into this race and trying to identify some decent ante-post value.
Now, a few other things to note.
Weight For Age
The 3 Year Old Fillies also get the weight for age allowance from the 4 year old colts meaning that there’s a 10lbs gap between them. Naturally, that also plays into the hands of the top class fillies especially on what is usually testing ground at Longchamp over the 2400 metres.
Ignore The Mares
A slight contradiction on my part but 3 and 4 year olds is where your analysis wants to be focused. In the entire history of The Arc, there’s only been two mares to enter the winners enclosure. Corrida in 1937 and Alpinista in 2022.
Draw Bias
If Ante-Post isn’t your thing and you’d rather be bookmarking this and referring back to the market with all the information to hand then it would also be worth waiting for the draw with around 66% of winners coming from stall 8 or lower, (8 from the last 12) which would appear to be a valuable bias to consider albeit that it’s not an enormous sample size.
So which fillies should be on your radar for The Arc and what is the shortlist that you should be drawing up based on the above.
ZARIGANA @ 50/1
- 3 YO Filly
- Rated - 112
The impeccably bred Aga Khan horse is somewhat of an enigma. She definitely has her quirks. Seemingly needing to be held up to deliver her challenge late, however, questions can be asked about her genuineness:
- Did she want to go by in the Prix Marcel Boussac?
- Was she ever going to go past She’s Perfect?
- Did she stop when hitting the front at Royal Ascot?
Soft ground and a step up in trip could well unlock more from her and if you were tempted to play her I wouldn’t blame anyone. Blinkers may well be applied on future runs and clearly she’s extremely talented and you’re getting 50/1 to answer all the questions marks that surround her. Worse 50/1 shots out there in my opinion.
AVENTURE @ 16/1
- 4 YO Filly
- Rated - 120
From a 3 year old to a 4 year old and while one is all about promise and potential, Aventure has been there and very almost done it. In keeping with this piece, her performance from last season further backs up both the stall and filly trends for The Arc. She was second behind Bluestocking meaning the girls finished 1-2 and both came from stalls 3 and 4.
She’s already amassed £1.4m in prize money and doesn’t look like stopping anytime soon with two runs this season so far and winning on both occasions in Group 3 and Group 2 company.
KALPANA @ 14/1
- 4 YO Filly
- Rated - 118
A horse that was impressive on Champions Day at Ascot and you’d think she’ll be seen to best effect with some cut in the ground which of course is common for this race in early October. I’m sure Andrew Balding would have liked to get her out more frequently so far this season but she is declared for the weekend and I’m sure connections will have plenty of targets in the second part of the season and perhaps Juddmonte are hopeful of having a crack at back-to-back Arc’s.
GEZORA @ 14/1
- 3 YO FILLY
- Rated - N/A
Already a Group 2 winner at Longchamp and she followed that success up in the Prix De Diane at Chantilly.
She moved to Francis Henri Graffard at the start of this season and has clearly progressed under her new trainer. They will be trying to follow in the footsteps of Zarkava and Treve who both won this race before going onto Arc success.
ESTRANGE
- 4 YO Filly
- Rated - 114
This daughter of Night Of Thunder was last seen in the Lester Piggott Stakes at Haydock where she stepped up into Group 3 company for the fist time. Another that clearly likes a bit of cut in the ground and you can be sure that connections are working back from this race with quotes from trainer, David O’Meara confirming that as not just the plan but “the dream”
Following that success he stated that “We’ve waited for a little bit of ease in the ground and you’d like to think you’d get that at ParisLongchamp in October, so we’ll work back from that and see what happens – that is the dream and we’ll try to keep the dream alive.”
FRIENDLY SOUL
- 4 YO Filly
- Rated - 116
An impressive winner of the Prix de l’Opera at ParisLongchamp on the same card as the Arc last October but sadly is yet to be seen on track this season. She’s had a couple of setbacks which is far from ideal but for course form lovers, she is one to have on your radar following that win on very soft going conditions.
She has won four of he five starts and is held in high regard by John & Thady Gosden ““She’s just had a setback and hopefully we will see her later on in the season,” explained Thady Gosden.“We’ll have to wait and see and she is obviously an extremely high-class filly, so she will be given all the time she needs”
Let’s hope she can get back on track as she’s sure to have the potential to be a player in this race however, injured horses can be an ante-post recipe for disaster so my advice, tread carefully.
They are the 6 fillies that I’ve focussed on and I know there’s a glaring admission of any horses trained by Aidan O’Brien. He has the likes of Minnie Hauk, Lake Victoria and Whirl all quoted in the betting so should one of his fillies be on your radar then be sure to check the Oddschecker price grids to ensure you’re getting top price.
Do you have a fancy for The Arc? We’d like to hear your thoughts so why not drop us a message on X with who your idea of the winner is - @Oddschecker or @AntepostValue
