Steve Ryder looks forward to Sunday's 1000 Guineas, breaking down the confirmed field, race trends, and his recommended bet.
The 1000 Guineas is a Group 1 run over the Rowley Mile for three-year-old fillies. This year it is run on Sunday 3rd May at 3:35 and there are currently 22 entries.
1000 Guineas Winners, Trends & Stats
Desert Flower was the first winning favourite since Minding in 2016 last year when landing the race for the first time for Charlie Appleby. She attempted to emulate Love in following up in the Oaks at Epsom but came up short but Lake Victoria, who finished 6th, went on to win the Irish 1000 Guineas.
· 11 of the previous 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over a mile
· 10 of the previous 12 winners were rated 106 or higher
· 10 of the previous 12 winners had already won a Group race
· 9 of the previous 12 winners had run at Newmarket
· 7 of the previous 12 winners had already run that season
· 7 of the previous 12 winners were beaten on their previous start
Who is the favourite to win the 1000 Guineas?
At the time of writing, Precise is the 11/4 favourite to win the 1000 Guineas. He is followed at the top of the betting by Venetian Sun (11/2), Diamond Necklace (6/1) and True Love (8/1).
1000 Guineas Runners Guide
PRECISE
Starspangledbanner filly who finished 2nd on her debut before winning her next four starts. Those included a victory in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh over 7f and a 3 ¼ length success in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile over this course and distance. Aidan O’Brien stated that she hasn’t had the ideal preparation for the race but would still hold strong claims if allowed to take her chance.
VENETIAN SUN
Karl Burke trained filly who won her first four career starts including when beating Gstaad by a short neck in the Group 1 Prix Morny. She lost her unbeaten record when 3rd behind Precise in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes and would have stamina concerns over this step up in trip to a mile.
DIAMOND NECKLACE
Unbeaten in her three starts last season including a smooth success in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp over a mile at the end of the season. Aidan O’Brien stated that she is likely to head to the French 1000 Guineas unless Precise doesn’t make it to this race.
TRUE LOVE
Speedy No Nay Never filly who won the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot before following up in the Railway Stakes over 6f when beating Puerto Rico by five lengths. She won the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at this track over 6f last season and won over 7f at Leopardstown in a Group 3 on her reappearance. She would be another with stamina concerns over this 1 mile trip.
THE PRETTIEST STAR
Won a weak Nottingham maiden by 4 ½ lengths before finishing a close 2nd in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes over 7f at this track at the end of last season. She had a racecourse gallop at this track a month ago and the stable have started the season in good form.
ABASHIRI
Well bred daughter of Frankel who won a Kempton maiden at the end of last season by four lengths. Her future may well prove over distances further than a mile but she is respected for last year’s winning connections.
MY HIGHNESS
French raider representing Andre Fabre who won this race in 2014 with Miss France. She was beaten only a nose on her debut before winning her next three starts. She was a beaten favourite on her reappearance over 7f at Deauville but connections have booked Oisin Murphy for the ride.
INIS MOR
Won her first two starts on the July course at Newmarket before finishing 2nd at Longchamp on her final start last season. She appeared in need of the run when 4th beaten only two lengths in the Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7f here last time.
TOULEEN
An impressive winner on her first two starts, she finished 5th in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at this track last season before finishing 2nd on her reappearance in the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury when a beaten favourite.
AZLEET
Defied odds of 50/1 to win the Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7f here on her reappearance. She had previously finished 2nd to Spicy Marg over 6f in a listed race here on her final start last season. Could outrun her odds once again.
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1000 Guineas Trainers & Jockeys to Watch
Robert Robson is the leading trainer for this race according to the record books with nine victories between 1859 and 1883 but more recently it is a race that has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien who has won it seven times since 2005.
Ryan Moore rode four of those winners for Aidan O’Brien but both Oisin Murphy and William Buick have also won this race recently.
Betting Insights for the 1000 Guineas
As highlighted in the trends video, Evolutionist is a fascinating contender at odds of 25/1 but connections appear to be leaning towards the French 1000 Guineas with her instead. I am willing to take a chance on SPICY MARG (best priced at 66/1) at a huge price who boats strong course form. The daughter of Starspangledabanner made an impressive winning debut on 1000 Guineas day last year and ran well on her two other starts on this track. She finished a close 4th over 5f in a Group 3 before beating subsequent Nell Gwyn Stakes winner Azleet by 2 lengths over 6f when staying on strongly at the finish.
Connections have booked Tom Marquand for the ride and she could hit the frame at big odds.
Recommended Bet: SPICY MARG 66/1 - 0.5pt EW
Oddschecker Insights: PRECISE has been the most popular Ante-Post bet on Oddschecker this week, picking up 25% of the total bet share.
MY HIGHNESS and DIAMOND NECKLACE follow behind with 12% and 11% bets received in the last 7 days.
Explore the full market odds on the 1000 Guineas Betting Page on Oddschecker.
