With declarations revealed for the 2026 Nunthorpe Stakes, we take a look at the runners, trends and pick out a betting tip.
The Nunthorpe Stakes brings together a fascinating mix of proven Group 1 sprinters, York specialists and exciting unexposed speedsters for Friday's five-furlong showdown.
Nunthorpe Stakes 2026 Declarations
Ain't Nobody Kevin Stott
American Affair Paul Mulrennan
Cover Up William Buick
Jm Jungle Jason Hart
Night Raider James Doyle
Partisan Hero Tom Marquand
Redorange PJ McDonald
Rumstar Rob Hornby
Starlust Rossa Ryan
Bacio Juan Hernandez
Mission Central TBC
Asfoora Oisin Murphy
Azure Angel Daniel Tudhope
Heavenly Heather Barry McHugh
Rayevka Mickael Barzalona
Time For Sandals Kieran Shoemark
Fitzella Colin Keane
Pershaada Silvestre De Sousa
Nunthorpe Stakes 2026 Runners Guide
Bacio
Bacio has quickly developed into one of the most exciting five-furlong horses in training, winning four of his five starts. His Royal Ascot success in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse was particularly striking, powering clear by three and three-quarter lengths after making all.
The concern is the class jump. He recorded an RPR of 117 at Ascot, while the average winning RPR for the Nunthorpe over the past decade is 122. He therefore needs to find another level, and unlike many of his rivals, he has never raced at York.
His high cruising speed should be an obvious asset around the Knavesmire, but at around 3-1 there is little room for doubt.
American Affair
American Affair arrives with one of the strongest pieces of recent form after an impressive victory in the King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood. Paul Mulrennan allowed him to roll along rather than restrain him, and the change in tactics produced a much more convincing performance.
He has already shown that he handles York, including a course-and-distance success, while his Goodwood win came against a number of horses who reoppose here. The main question is whether he can reproduce that level in a Group 1.
His profile is nevertheless packed with positives: proven course form, a Group win and a victory this season. Those are three boxes ticked by the historical trends.
Asfoora
Last year's winner returns for what is expected to be her final start, and a repeat would provide a fitting ending to a remarkable career.
Asfoora has endured a frustrating season without winning, but connections remain convinced that her performances have been better than the bare results suggest. She was third behind American Affair at Goodwood and should be sharper for that run.
Her biggest advantage is that she already knows exactly how to win this race. A course-and-distance Group 1 winner cannot be dismissed, particularly if she gets the favourable draw her trainer is hoping for.
Rayevka
Rayevka brings high-class European form to the table after finishing just a head behind Mission Central in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot.
She possesses a devastating finishing kick and has been deliberately kept fresh for this assignment. Fast ground is considered ideal, although she can handle some ease.
The slight concern is tactical. Rayevka tends to be held up, meaning she will need the race to unfold perfectly. Five furlongs at York can leave little room for error, particularly if the leaders establish a strong position.
Mission Central
Mission Central has a strong case based on his Ascot victory over Rayevka. He showed plenty of stamina to get the better of her late and has since had a crack at six furlongs in the July Cup.
That effort was only fair, but the drop back to the minimum trip could bring about a revival. His Ascot performance suggested that five furlongs is his optimum distance, particularly when the race is strongly run.
His double-figure odds make him interesting from a value perspective, especially given Aidan O'Brien's excellent record in this race with three-year-olds.
Cover Up
Cover Up has quietly assembled a compelling sprint profile. He was beaten three and a half lengths in the King Charles III at Royal Ascot, but his trainer felt he was compromised by being held up and meeting traffic.
He put that behind him when producing a sharp turn of foot to land the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh. That victory provides an important piece of collateral form for this race.
The six-year-old is now back against the best sprinters in Europe, but his recent form suggests he deserves to be taken seriously.
Redorange
Redorange is an intriguing big-price contender with much more going for him than his odds suggest.
His latest York victory was visually impressive, particularly given that he had raced away from the main pack before producing a powerful surge to join and pass his rivals. The performance came with a strong speed figure and confirmed his liking for the Knavesmire.
He also has previous C&D form and could arguably have an unbeaten record here had he enjoyed a clear passage on his earlier visit.
At around 20-1, his price reflects the uncertainty surrounding his step into Group 1 company, but his York credentials are difficult to ignore.
Night Raider
Night Raider was fourth in this race last year and returns to York on a track that should suit him better than some of his recent assignments.
He looked a transformed sprinter after being gelded, winning the Palace House Stakes and Temple Stakes, but his subsequent efforts have been disappointing. His King George run was particularly underwhelming, although he did miss the break and never really looked comfortable.
A return to a flat, sharp track could help him bounce back. His previous Nunthorpe run proves he can handle the environment, but he needs to rediscover his best form.
Rumstar
Rumstar finished second to American Affair in the King George Qatar Stakes and therefore brings solid recent form into the race.
He has also finished prominently in previous Nunthorpe editions, but his best efforts have arguably come when given a more searching test than the sharpest five furlongs York can provide.
His Goodwood performance means he cannot be ruled out, although the balance between his recent form and his course requirements will be crucial.
Pershaada
Pershaada is the fascinating youngster of the field after an emphatic Molecomb Stakes victory at Goodwood.
The two-year-old receives a massive weight allowance from Bacio and her elders, while trainer Richard Hannon believes she possesses exceptional natural speed.
However, the historical record is strongly against juveniles. Kingsgate Native in 2007 was the last two-year-old winner, while only one other juvenile has succeeded since 1954.
Her raw ability makes her dangerous, but she is attempting to overturn a major historical trend.
Starlust
Starlust has the advantage of proven York form and has already won over the course and distance.
That is particularly significant given that every one of the last 12 Nunthorpe winners had previously raced at York. He also fits several of the broader trends better than many of the shorter-priced runners.
The question is whether he possesses the necessary Group 1 class to beat the likes of Bacio, American Affair and Asfoora. His course credentials make him one to consider at a bigger price.
Partisan Hero
Partisan Hero is another with York experience and has already won over the course and distance.
He has been involved in some useful sprint form this season, but the historical trends are less favourable given that he has yet to win a Group 1-3 contest.
That does not rule him out in such an unpredictable division, but he needs a career-best performance to take this.
Azure Angel
Azure Angel has C&D winning form, which is a major positive when applying the historical trends.
However, her recent form leaves questions to answer after finishing last behind American Affair in the King George Qatar Stakes. She will need to reverse that form considerably to play a major role.
Her York record at least gives her a foundation that several of the market leaders lack.
Jm Jungle
Jm Jungle has already shown his liking for York and was a respectable fifth in last year's Nunthorpe.
He was behind American Affair at Goodwood but has enough course experience to make him interesting if returning to his best. The concern is his lack of a recent Group 1-3 victory, which puts him on the wrong side of one of the strongest trends.
Ain't Nobody
Ain't Nobody produced one of the biggest shocks in recent Nunthorpe history when finishing second at 100-1 last year.
That effort proves he can handle the race and the course, but reproducing that performance is another matter. He has plenty of familiarity with the Knavesmire, yet his overall recent profile leaves him needing another sizeable step forward.
Time For Sandals
Time For Sandals has been involved in the sprinting picture throughout the season and finished behind American Affair at Goodwood.
That collateral form gives him something to work with, although he needs to reverse the considerable gap between them. His claims would also be strengthened by a favourable draw and a strongly-run race.
Fitzella
Fitzella adds another lightly exposed option to a race where several runners are difficult to assess.
She lacks the depth of York and Group-level form possessed by some of the established contenders, meaning this represents a major test. Her advantage is that the race could develop into a searching speed test, which can sometimes expose horses with untapped ability.
Heavenly Heather
Heavenly Heather completes the field and faces a demanding task against a deep field of established Group performers.
The race contains several horses with proven York form and recent high-level sprint performances, so she will need considerable improvement to become a serious factor.
Nunthorpe Stakes 2026 Odds
Nunthorpe Stakes Trends
The historical trends provide a useful way of separating the established contenders from the more speculative runners.
Age: 11 of the last 12 winners have been aged four or older. Winter Power was the sole exception during that period, meaning Bacio and Pershaada face a significant historical obstacle.
Course form: Every one of the last 12 winners had previously raced at York, while eight had already won there. That gives a significant advantage to American Affair, Asfoora, Redorange, Starlust, Jm Jungle, Partisan Hero and Azure Angel.
Group-class form: 10 of the last 12 winners had already won a Group 1, 2 or 3 race. American Affair, Asfoora, Rayevka, Mission Central, Cover Up and several others satisfy that requirement, while Redorange, Jm Jungle and Partisan Hero do not.
Recent winning form: 11 of the last 12 winners had won earlier in the season. American Affair is particularly well placed here after his Goodwood success, whereas Asfoora, Rayevka and Starlust would be attempting to buck the trend.
Draw: Nine of the last 12 winners came from stall eight or lower, making the draw an important factor once the final stalls are known. The historical data suggests that an inside-to-middle berth could be particularly valuable.
Nunthorpe Stakes 2026 Betting Tip
I’d make American Affair the selection at 13/2. He has arguably the strongest overall profile in the field, combining proven York form with a Group-level victory and a win this season, three key trends that favour recent Nunthorpe winners.
His latest King George Qatar Stakes success was particularly impressive, with a change in tactics allowing him to bowl along and produce a devastating finish. He also has the crucial C&D form that Bacio, Rayevka and several of the market leaders lack.
Bacio is clearly the one with potential to improve past him, but he has to make a sizeable leap from handicap company into Group 1 level and is short enough at around 3/1. American Affair has far fewer questions to answer and 13/2 looks the better value play.
Bet: American Affair – 1pt Win @ 13/2
