We preview the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp this Sunday.
Europe's richest middle distance race returns to ParisLongchamp on Sunday 4 October, with the 105th Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe due off at 15:05 BST (16:05 in France). It is a Group 1 over 2,400m (1m 4f) for three year olds and upwards, open to colts and fillies, with €5 million in prize money and around €2.86 million to the winner. Fillies and mares receive a 1.5kg allowance, and three year olds get weight for age from their elders. This is the final Arc to exclude geldings before the rules change in 2027.
Final declarations are made on Thursday morning, with the draw revealed at 19:45 BST that evening, so several of the names below are still doubtful. France Galop's clerk of the course expects good to soft ground for Arc weekend, with rain forecast midweek before a drier run into Sunday.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Winners, Trends & Stats
Daryz won last year's renewal by a head from Minnie Hauk at 12/1, with the pair five and a half lengths clear. That performance earned a Timeform rating of 131, the best Arc figure since 2019.
- Three year olds have won 10 of the last 20 runnings, but only three of the last 10 (Enable, Ace Impact and Daryz)
- Fillies and mares have won 10 of the last 20 and five of the last 10
- No colt has won back to back Arcs since Alleged in 1977 and 1978; only eight horses have won the race twice
- Four of the last 12 winners were favourite, and seven of the 12 came from the first three in the betting
- 11 of the last 12 winners had already won a Group 1, with Daryz last year the exception
- A Timeform study of 2000 to 2014 found stalls one to four made the first three more often than chance; Daryz won from stall 2 last year
- Japanese trained runners are still searching for a first win after 38 attempts, with four seconds
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Odds
Daryz has shortened from 10/1 in the spring to 7/4 after wins in the Ganay, Ispahan and Foy. Maltese Cross has come in from 13/2 to 5/1 over the past few days. Alam has been withdrawn with a setback, Item is out for the season, and Almaqam, Aventure and Sunly are all heading elsewhere.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Runners Guide
Daryz
Francis Henri Graffard's four year old is the defending champion, and he has won the Ganay, the Ispahan and the Foy this season. His only defeat came when he finished third in the Prince of Wales's Stakes, and connections pointed to a virus and disruption before the race. He tracked the leader and won the Foy comfortably, though that trial was slowly run and he had been due to improve for it. He handles a range of ground and Mickael Barzalona keeps the ride. The case for him is clear, but he has to beat a 48 year run without a colt winning the race twice, and 7/4 before the draw leaves no margin.
Maltese Cross
William Haggas's three year old has won five of his seven starts, and he was second in the other two. That includes his only defeat of the season, when Christmas Day beat him by two and three quarter lengths in the Derby on soft ground. He has since won the Grand Prix de Paris over this course and distance by a head, finding a gap late, and then took the Great Voltigeur by two lengths under a 5lb penalty. Haggas described that York win as probably a career best. Tom Marquand says he has no shortage of speed over 2,400m, and connections want good ground. He is confirmed for Paris.
Kalpana
Andrew Balding's mare is Juddmonte's only runner after wins in the King George and the Yorkshire Oaks. At Ascot she beat Calandagan by a length and a half on good to firm, which is top class form. She won by only a nose at York after drifting right in the closing stages. She has nine wins from 18 starts, including four Group 1s. She was seventh in last year's Arc on very soft ground, and Balding has suggested she will appreciate a better surface this time. Colin Keane rides.
Thundering On
Joseph O'Brien's filly won the Oaks by three and three quarter lengths, having come from last, and followed up in the Blandford Stakes. She was only fourth when dropped to 10 furlongs on fast ground in the Pretty Polly in between. O'Brien says she likes some juice in the ground and has not ruled out missing the Arc, with the Opéra an alternative. Her regular jockey, Dylan Browne McMonagle, faces a fitness test. She is doubtful until declared.
Diamond Necklace
Aidan O'Brien's filly won her first six starts, including the French 1000 Guineas, the Prix de Diane and the Nassau Stakes. She was then beaten two lengths at 2/9 by Aventure in the Prix Jean Romanet on very wet ground, and O'Brien offered no ground excuse. She has yet to race over 12 furlongs, and she holds an Opéra entry as well.
Varandir
Graffard's second string won the Prix du Lorient, then finished fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris, beaten less than a length by Maltese Cross. He came from fifth turning in to win the Prix Niel on good to soft, and connections believe he will handle softer ground. Reports indicate he is expected to run alongside Daryz. Barzalona rides the stablemate, so a jockey booking is still needed.
Minnie Hauk
She was beaten only a head in last year's Arc, but her 2026 season has been more mixed. She was second in the Prince of Wales's, then weakened to finish eighth in the King George and ran third in the Yorkshire Oaks. She remains in contention as one of several possible runners for Ballydoyle.
Bay City Roller
George Scott's colt won the Coronation Cup on soft ground and was second in the Foy on quicker ground than he likes. Scott has said he will not run on watered ground and needs natural rain, so he is doubtful and has the Champion Stakes as an alternative.
Friendly Soul
John and Thady Gosden's mare made all to win the Prix Vermeille in record time on her first start at 12 furlongs, earning a free place in the Arc. She won the Opéra in 2024, and connections have not yet decided which of the two races she will contest. She is doubtful for now.
Constitution River
He won the Prix du Jockey Club and the Eclipse, then finished third in both the Juddmonte International and the Irish Champion Stakes, the latter as favourite. His price has drifted from second favourite in July to 40/1.
Benvenuto Cellini
The Irish Derby winner was third in the King George. He was then only fifth in the Prix Niel at 4/6, which leaves him with plenty to prove.
Meisho Tabaru
He has won the Takarazuka Kinen for the past two years and comes straight here without a prep run. He is in France, has worked at Longchamp, and Yutaka Take rides him in his 12th Arc.
Admire Terra
This Japanese raider has proven stamina after winning the Hanshin Daishoten over 3,000m. Cristian Demuro, who has two Arc wins, takes the ride.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Trainer To Watch
Francis Henri Graffard won last year's Arc with Daryz and has taken two of this season's three trials, the Foy with Daryz and the Niel with Varandir. He comes in with the defending champion and the Niel winner. John Gosden has won three Arcs since 2015 and now shares his licence with Thady, who are represented by Friendly Soul if she takes her place.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Tips
Good to soft ground, with midweek rain and a drier run into the weekend, is a fair test for most of the leading contenders. Maltese Cross wants a good surface and Varandir handles cut. If the rain is heavier than forecast, the picture changes for Kalpana, who prefers better ground, and for Bay City Roller and Thundering On, who want some give. The draw on Thursday evening is the next key moment, as recent winners have tended to come from lower stalls.
Daryz is the most likely winner on form and ratings, and there is no doubt he will run. However, 7/4 before the draw is short for a colt trying something no colt has done since 1978, especially after a slowly run Foy that told us little new. Kalpana has top level form from the King George and would suit each way at 7/1. Varandir at 16/1 offers insurance on softer ground if he is declared.
The bet is Maltese Cross. He is confirmed, he has already won a Group 1 over this course and distance, and his only defeat came on soft ground in the Derby. His Great Voltigeur win under a penalty suggests he is still improving, and at 5/1 he is more than twice the favourite's price.
