We preview the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp this Sunday.
Sixteen runners have been declared for the 105th Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, which is due off at 15:05 BST (16:05 in France) on Sunday 4 October. Europe's richest middle distance race is a Group 1 over 2,400m (1m 4f), run right handed, with €5 million in prize money and around €2.86 million to the winner. It is also the last Arc closed to geldings before the rules change in 2027.
Longchamp had 7.5mm of rain on Wednesday and overnight, which pushed the official penetrometer reading to 3.7, or "souple". The GoingStick shows the ground is no worse than good to soft, though. With dry weather forecast well into next week, the Arc looks set to be run on ground no slower than good, and it could be good to firm.
Daryz bids to become the first colt to win back to back Arcs since Alleged in 1977 and 1978, and the draw is revealed at 19:45 BST on Thursday evening.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Winners, Trends & Stats
Daryz won last year's renewal by a head from Minnie Hauk at 12/1, with the pair five and a half lengths clear. That performance earned a Timeform rating of 131, the best Arc figure since 2019.
- Three year olds have won 10 of the last 20 runnings, but only three of the last 10 (Enable, Ace Impact and Daryz)
- Fillies and mares have won 10 of the last 20 and five of the last 10
- No colt has won back to back Arcs since Alleged in 1977 and 1978; only eight horses have won the race twice
- Four of the last 12 winners were favourite, and seven of the 12 came from the first three in the betting
- 11 of the last 12 winners had already won a Group 1, with Daryz last year the exception
- A Timeform study of 2000 to 2014 found stalls one to four made the first three more often than chance; Daryz won from stall 2 last year
- Japanese trained runners are still searching for a first win after 38 attempts, with four seconds
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Odds
Diamond Necklace has been backed into 9/1 from 16/1 since Monday, and Varandir has shortened to 12/1 from 16/1. Thundering On, Bay City Roller and Admire Terra have all eased slightly. Maltese Cross is still 5/1 with some firms but as short as 7/2 elsewhere. The market may still be adjusting to the going news, so expect further moves before and after the draw.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Runners Guide
Daryz - Mickael Barzalona
Francis Henri Graffard's four year old is the defending champion, and he is unbeaten in France this season after the Ganay, the Ispahan and the Foy. His only defeat came when he was third in the Prince of Wales's Stakes, which connections put down to a virus. He won last year's Arc on very soft ground and the Foy on fast ground, so the going holds no fears. Graffard says he is sharper now than before the Foy. He is the most likely winner, but 7/4 before the draw is short for a horse trying to end a 48 year run.
Maltese Cross - Tom Marquand
William Haggas's three year old has won five of his seven starts, finishing second in the other two. He won the Grand Prix de Paris over this course and distance by a head, then took the Great Voltigeur by two lengths under a 5lb penalty, which Haggas called probably a career best. His only defeat this season came on soft ground in the Derby. Marquand has called quick ground "music to my ears", and good or faster ground is exactly what connections hoped for.
Kalpana - Colin Keane
Andrew Balding's mare has the best form in the race at a mile and a half, having won the King George on good to firm by a length and a half from Calandagan. She followed that by taking the Yorkshire Oaks by a nose. She was only seventh in last year's Arc on very soft ground, but this time she gets the better surface Balding wanted. She has nine wins from 18 starts, and the faster ground makes her a real threat.
Thundering On - Pierre-Charles Boudot
Joseph O'Brien's filly won the Oaks by three and three-quarter lengths before finishing fourth in the Pretty Polly Stakes. She bounced back to win the Blandford Stakes on good ground, but O'Brien says she is best on the softer side of good. Dylan Browne McMonagle was not cleared in time after a fall in August, so Boudot takes the ride.
Diamond Necklace - TBC
Aidan O'Brien's filly won her first six starts, including the French 1000 Guineas, the Prix de Diane and the Nassau Stakes. She was then beaten two lengths at 2/9 in the Prix Jean Romanet on very wet ground. O'Brien wanted nice ground for her first try at 12 furlongs, and she should get it, although stamina is unproven. He expects Ryan Moore to ride her, but that is not confirmed.
Varandir - Clement Lecoeuvre
Graffard's second runner won the Prix Hocquart and the Prix Niel, and between those wins he was fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris, less than a length behind Maltese Cross. He won the Niel on good to soft and handles cut, so faster ground removes one of his advantages.
Minnie Hauk - TBC
She was beaten only a head in last year's Arc but has not reached that level this year. She was second in the Prince of Wales's, then weakened to eighth in the King George before finishing third in the Yorkshire Oaks.
Bay City Roller - Oisin Murphy
George Scott said he would not run on watered ground, and there has been some natural rain. He won the Coronation Cup by 10 lengths on soft and was second to Daryz in the Foy on quicker ground than he likes. He is a soft ground Group 1 winner at 25/1.
Friendly Soul - James Doyle
The Gosdens' mare made all to win the Prix Vermeille in record time on fast ground, which earned her a free supplement into the Arc. She won the Opéra in 2024 and was second in the Nassau this summer. Drying ground suits her, and she is one of the likely pace setters.
Benvenuto Cellini - TBC
The Irish Derby winner was third in the King George. He was then only fifth in the Prix Niel at 4/6, which leaves him with plenty to prove.
Meisho Tabaru - Yutaka Take
He has won the Takarazuka Kinen for the past two years and comes straight here without a prep run. He is in France, has worked at Longchamp, and Yutaka Take rides him in his 12th Arc. Take has suggested he may go to the front.
Admire Terra - Cristian Demuro
This Japanese raider has proven stamina after winning the Hanshin Daishoten over 3,000m. Cristian Demuro, who has two Arc wins, takes the ride.
Saddadd - Ray Dawson
Roger Varian's four year old won the Grosser Preis von Baden by half a length, after finishing third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and fourth in the Eclipse. He looks to need plenty to go right.
Chestnut Rocket - Marvin Grandin
He was beaten a neck in the Grand Prix de Deauville on heavy ground and has won on heavy. This looks a big step up.
Arrow Eagle - Ioritz Mendizabal
Jean Claude Rouget's five year old won last year's Prix Royal Oak on very soft and was sixth in the 2025 Arc. He was third on heavy ground in the Grand Prix de Deauville. He would need a big improvement to win and his best form has come with cut, so faster ground is against him.
Bright Light - Benjamin Marie
The German trained three year old was beaten a neck in the Grosser Preis von Berlin and finished third in the Baden race behind Saddadd. His trainer says he is better on soft ground.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Trainer To Watch
Francis Henri Graffard won last year's Arc with Daryz and has taken two of this season's three trials, the Foy with Daryz and the Niel with Varandir. He runs both, and both handle ease in the ground. Joseph O'Brien is also worth noting, as Thundering On's trainer says the ground is close to what she wants.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Tips
The GoingStick says good to soft at worst, and with several dry days ahead this looks a race on good or even good to firm ground. That suits Maltese Cross, Kalpana and Friendly Soul. It goes against Thundering On, Bay City Roller, Arrow Eagle and the German raiders. Meisho Tabaru and Friendly Soul look likely to share the lead, so there should be a fair pace.
Daryz deserves to be favourite, but at 7/4 before the draw you are not getting enough for the risk of a bad stall or the history against him. Kalpana at 7/1 is the each way bet. She has top class form on fast ground, and the conditions that beat her last year are gone. If Thundering On drifts on the firmer ground, she is one to leave alone.
The bet is Maltese Cross. He is still 5/1 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral, and other firms have cut him to 4/1 and 7/2. He has already won a Group 1 over course and distance, his only defeat this season came on soft ground, and a quick surface is what his team wanted. His win in the Great Voltigeur under a penalty suggests he is still improving. Check the draw at 19:45 BST tonight before placing a bet.
