We preview the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp this Sunday.
Sixteen runners line up for the 105th Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, off at 15:05 BST (16:05 in France) on Sunday 4 October. Europe's richest middle distance race is a Group 1 over 2,400m (1m 4f) worth €5 million, with around €2.86 million to the winner. This is the final Arc closed to geldings before the rules change in 2027.
Daryz is favourite to become the first colt to win back to back Arcs since Alleged in 1977 and 1978, and he has a good draw in stall 5. Kalpana has been the big mover since the draw, while Maltese Cross has drifted after drawing stall 11. Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Benvenuto Cellini.
The ground is drying. The penetrometer reading has gone from 3.7 on Thursday to 3.5 on Friday and 3.4 (good to soft) on Saturday. There will be no more watering, and Sunday is forecast sunny with highs of 25C, so expect a quicker surface than the official description suggests.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Winners, Trends & Stats
Daryz won last year by a head from Minnie Hauk at 12/1, from stall 2. That performance earned a Timeform rating of 131, the best Arc figure since 2019.
Key trends:
- Three year olds have won 10 of the last 20 runnings, but only three of the last 10
- Fillies and mares have won 10 of the last 20 and five of the last 10
- Only eight horses have won the Arc twice, and no colt has done it since Alleged in 1978
- Four of the last 12 favourites have won, and seven of the last 12 winners came from the first three in the betting
- 11 of the last 12 winners had already won a Group 1
- A Timeform study of 2000 to 2014 found that stalls one to four made the first three more often than chance
- The last winner from stall 1 was Zarkava in 2008
- Japanese trained runners are 0 from 38, with four second places
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Odds
Kalpana has been backed into 4/1 from 7/1 since declarations, and Benvenuto Cellini is in from 25/1 to 16/1 after Moore chose him. Maltese Cross has eased from 5/1 to 7/1 following his draw, and Diamond Necklace is out from 9/1 to 14/1 after drawing stall 16.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Runners Guide
Daryz (stall 5, Mickael Barzalona)
Francis Henri Graffard's defending champion has won the Ganay, the Ispahan and the Foy this year. His only defeat came in the Prince of Wales's Stakes, where connections said he had a virus. He won last year's Arc on very soft ground and the Foy on fast ground, so the conditions do not concern him. Barzalona said, "Five is a pretty good draw… I'm pretty confident," and Graffard added that Daryz needs a strong pace. He is the most likely winner, but at 13/8 he is short for a horse facing 48 years of history.
Maltese Cross (stall 11, Tom Marquand)
William Haggas's colt has won five of his seven starts, finishing second in the other two. He won the Grand Prix de Paris over this course and distance by a head, beating Varandir, then took the Great Voltigeur under a 5lb penalty in what Haggas called probably a career best. His only defeat this season came on soft ground in the Derby, and the drying conditions suit him. Marquand described the draw as "one of those random quirks... you just have to play the cards you are dealt". Haggas says the ground "will be fine for him whatever it is".
Kalpana (stall 6, Colin Keane)
Andrew Balding's mare has the best fast ground form in the field. She won the King George by a length and a half from Calandagan on good to firm, then took the Yorkshire Oaks by a shoulder. She was only seventh in last year's Arc on very soft ground, but this time the conditions have turned her way, and Balding said the team are "very happy with the draw". The market has noticed, and 4/1 now looks short enough.
Thundering On (stall 3, Pierre-Charles Boudot)
Joseph O'Brien's filly won the Oaks by three and three quarter lengths, finished fourth in the Polly Stakes and then bounced back with a win in the Blandford Stakes. She has a good draw and gets the three year old filly allowance. Her trainer says she is best on the softer side of good, so the drying ground is a slight concern.
Diamond Necklace (stall 16, Christophe Soumillon)
Aidan O'Brien's filly won her first six starts, including the French 1000 Guineas, the Prix de Diane and the Nassau Stakes, before she was beaten at 2/9 in the Prix Jean Romanet on very wet ground. She has never raced over 12 furlongs and has drawn the widest stall, and her price has drifted as a result.
Varandir (stall 4, Clement Lecoeuvre)
Graffard's second runner won the Prix Hocquart and the Prix Niel, beating Benvenuto Cellini in the Niel. Between those wins he was fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris, less than a length behind Maltese Cross. He has a good inside draw and is an interesting price for a horse who has been improving all season.
Minnie Hauk (stall 10, William Buick)
She was beaten a head in last year's Arc. This season she was second in the Prince of Wales's Stakes, eighth in the King George and third in the Yorkshire Oaks. Buick takes the ride.
Bay City Roller (stall 15, Oisin Murphy)
George Scott's colt won the Coronation Cup by 10 lengths on soft and was second to Daryz in the Foy. Scott is going "with cautious optimism", but a wide draw and drying ground are both against him.
Friendly Soul - James Doyle
The Gosdens' mare made all to win the Prix Vermeille in record time on fast ground, which earned her a free supplement into the Arc. She won the Opéra in 2024 and was second in the Nassau this summer. Drying ground suits her, and she is one of the likely pace setters.
Benvenuto Cellini - Ryan Moore
The Irish Derby winner was third in the King George. He was then only fifth in the Prix Niel at 4/6, which leaves him with plenty to prove.
Meisho Tabaru (stall 13, Yutaka Take)
The dual Takarazuka Kinen winner runs without a prep race. Take would have wanted an outside draw but has noted that Tabaru has been successful from outside draws before and plans to go forward and set his own pace.
Admire Terra (stall 12, Cristian Demuro)
The Hanshin Daishoten winner has proven stamina and is ridden by a dual Arc winning jockey, but he has a wide draw and no prep run.
Saddadd (stall 9, Ray Dawson)
Roger Varian's colt won the Grosser Preis von Baden and has been third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and fourth in the Eclipse. He needs plenty to go right.
Chestnut Rocket (stall 2, Marvin Grandin)
He was a neck second in the Grand Prix de Deauville on heavy ground. This is a big step up, and the conditions are against him.
Arrow Eagle (stall 14, Ioritz Mendizabal)
Jean Claude Rouget's five year old won last year's Prix Royal Oak and was sixth in the 2025 Arc, but his best form has come on very soft ground.
Bright Light (stall 8, Benjamin Marie)
The German three-year-old was beaten a neck in the Grosser Preis von Berlin and finished third at Baden. His trainer thinks he would benefit from softer ground with the last two runs coming on very hard ground.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Trainer To Watch
Francis Henri Graffard won last year's Arc with Daryz and took two of this season's three trials, the Foy with Daryz and the Niel with Varandir. Both run from low stalls, five and four, so they should have every chance.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Tips
The draw has shaped the market. Daryz, Kalpana, Varandir and Thundering On all come from low or middle stalls, while Maltese Cross and Diamond Necklace will need to work from further out. With the ground drying towards good and Meisho Tabaru and Friendly Soul set to make the pace, this should be a true test that favours class at the trip.
Daryz is the one to beat, but 13/8 does not compensate for the risk in a 16 runner race. Kalpana has the right profile, but her price has been cut from 7/1 to 4/1. Varandir at 10/1 is the best of the low drawn alternatives.
Maltese Cross is the value. What he's achieved this year has been spectacular and there is more improvement to come. The draw has pushed him out to 7/1, but the bigger issue for him was always soft ground, and that is no longer a concern. He showed a high-class turn of foot to win the Group One Grand Prix de Paris over today’s course and distance, he beat Varandir on that occasion, and he is still improving. He clocked an even faster speed (43.1mph) there than Daryz’s fastest at ParisLongchamp in the Prix d'Ispahan. He then comfortably landed the Great Voltigeur at York, with the Derby winner four lengths behind. Stall 11 in a field of 16 is not extreme.
