We preview the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket this Saturday.
Twenty nine runners have been declared for the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch at 3.40pm on Saturday, three short of the maximum of 32, so there is no ballot.
The two top rated entries, A Piece Of Heaven and Samui, were not declared, which has pushed every weight up by 7lb. Defending champion Beylerbeyi now shoulders 9st 11lb.
The big story of the week has been the gamble on Joseph O'Brien's Dawn Rising, who has been backed from 16/1 into 13/2 with Ryan Moore booked. Sea Lantern has also been punted, although his trainer has said he needs rain.
The ground is still good to firm after Wednesday's rain fell well short of the forecast, and only light showers are expected before Saturday.
Cesarewitch Winners, Trends & Stats
| Year | Winner | Age | Weight | SP | Trainer | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Beylerbeyi | 5 | 8st 11lb | 7/1 | Ian Williams | 5 of 19 |
| 2024 | Alphonse Le Grande | 5 | 8st 3lb | 33/1 | Cathy O'Leary | 19 of 24 |
| 2023 | The Shunter | 10 | 9st 1lb | 14/1 | Emmet Mullins | 3 of 31 |
| 2022 | Run For Oscar | 7 | 8st 11lb | 4/1 | Charles Byrnes | 9 of 21 |
| 2021 | Buzz | 7 | 8st 13lb | 8/1 | Nicky Henderson | 6 of 32 |
| 2020 | Great White Shark | 6 | 8st 6lb | 9/2 fav | W P Mullins | 20 of 34 |
| 2019 | Stratum | 6 | 9st 7lb | 25/1 | W P Mullins | 20 of 30 |
| 2018 | Low Sun | 5 | 9st 2lb | 10/1 | W P Mullins | 13 of 33 |
| 2017 | Withhold | 4 | 8st 8lb | 5/1 fav | Roger Charlton | 24 of 34 |
| 2016 | Sweet Selection | 4 | 8st 8lb | 7/1 | Hughie Morrison | 23 of 33 |
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried 9st 2lb or less. Stratum (9st 7lb) is the only exception, and Beylerbeyi's 9st 11lb would be the most carried by a winner in the decade.
- 9 of the last 10 winners were rated between 86 and 97.
- 7 of the last 10 winners were aged four to six, and no eight or nine year old has won in that time.
- 7 of the last 10 winners returned 10/1 or shorter.
- Only 2 of the last 10 favourites won, and none of the other eight even finished in the first four.
- Irish trained horses have won 6 of the last 10 runnings.
- Low and middle draws have provided most of the first four finishers in the last decade, although the bias is only mild.
Cesarewitch 2026 Odds
Cesarewitch 2026 Runners Guide
1. High Fibre
James Owen's seven year old is drawn in stall one with De Sousa on board and carries 8st 8lb off 84. He has been backed into 20/1 from 33/1 and bigger earlier in the week, and the low draw is a plus.
2. Valedictory
The Gosden runner takes William Buick and carries 9st 9lb, including a 4lb penalty. He won at Doncaster and over 1m6f at Newmarket this season, but 2m 2f is a big step up and the penalty pushes him above the weight trend.
3. Kirchner (Fourth Favourite)
James Owen's four year old was second in the Northumberland Plate and won over two miles at Ascot in July. He was then beaten behind Mountain Road at York. Rossa Ryan rides off 9st 7lb. He was a strong favourite in the making earlier in the week but has eased to around 6/1 to 9/1.
4. Bahadur
Simon Woods's four year old has a good low draw and C Fallon rides at 9st 1lb off 91. He was second last time and is one of the more unexposed runners at a big price.
5. Dawn Rising (Third Favourite)
Second in this race last year, beaten a length and a quarter by Beylerbeyi, and now 10lb better off with the winner. Ryan Moore rides for Joseph O'Brien and owner JP McManus, and the money has poured in. His recent Flat form has been poor and nine year olds have a weak record, but the gamble is hard to ignore.
6. Naval Tribute
The third James Owen runner has won four of his six handicaps and races off a lightweight 8st 9lb, including his penalty, from a good low draw with George Wood riding. He has drifted from 20/1 to 40/1 with the bookmakers, but he is much shorter on the exchanges, which makes the bookmaker price look generous.
7. Align The Stars
Charlie Johnston's five year old carries 9st 10lb off 100 with Muscutt riding. The weight looks a big ask on the trends.
8. Appier
Tom Carroll's seven year old races off 79, and Coppins's 5lb claim brings his weight down. He was sixth last time and looks up against it.
9. Manxman
Second in the 2024 Cesarewitch, he won on soft ground at Goodwood in September and carries 9st 7lb with his penalty. Toby Moore's 7lb claim helps, but he was behind Mountain Road at York and would want more rain than looks likely.
10. Highwind
Willie Mullins's only runner has drifted from 20/1 to around 25/1, with one firm offering 33/1. He races off 85 with 8st 9lb and Lordan riding. His third at Clonmel and fifth over 2m 4f at Goodwood suggest stamina, but the drift is a concern.
11. Gooloogong
George Baker's six year old won two starts back and carries a penalty at 8st 6lb, with Chalmers claiming 7lb. He is a 40/1 outsider.
12. Pole Star
Charlie Johnston's four year old won last time and carries 8st 11lb, including his penalty. S D Bowen rides, and he is 33/1.
13. Wahraan
He was second to Cock And Bull at Galway in July and has since been well beaten. He is a three figure price and hard to fancy.
14. Alphonse Le Grande
The 2024 winner at 33/1 is 33/1 again. His form this season is poor, but he returns to the scene of his biggest win with McGettigan claiming 5lb.
15. Berkshire Sundance
Andrew Balding's six year old has drifted badly, from 20/1 to 50/1, and carries 9st 9lb with Redman claiming 7lb.
16. Premiere Ligne
Hughie Morrison's seven year old won over course and distance on 19 September and carries a penalty to 8st 5lb with S Osborne riding. Course and distance winning form is a positive, but he is rated only 77.
17. Sea Lantern (Second Favourite)
The four year old has run only four times, won at Pontefract and has been the big mover in the betting. However, Brian Ellison has said he needs some rain and could wait for the November Handicap instead. On drying ground he is a doubtful runner.
18. Tactician
Andrew Balding's five year old has drifted from 18/1 to 33/1. He is top weight at 9st 12lb before C Tucker's 7lb claim.
19. Reverend Hubert
Charles Byrnes won this with Run For Oscar in 2022 and this eight year old won last time. He carries 9st 5lb with Shoemark riding and has been supported into the low teens, but no eight year old has won in the last ten years.
20. Dream On Baby
Emmet Mullins's second string won last time, has been backed from 25/1 to 16/1 and carries 8st 11lb with Gavin Ryan riding.
21. Percy Shelley
Another James Owen runner. He has been runner up twice this year and carries 8st 8lb with N Currie riding.
22. Beylerbeyi (Favourite)
The defending champion has Billy Loughnane again, was fifth in the Ebor and second in the Doncaster Cup, and is the most reliable horse in the field. However, he has not won this year, is drawn high in stall 22 and now carries 9st 11lb, much more than the 8st 11lb he won with last year. He is a strong place candidate but short enough at 4/1 to 5/1 to oppose for the win.
23. Cock And Bull (Fifth Favourite)
Emmet Mullins and James Doyle, who teamed up with The Shunter in 2023, have been well backed, from 16/1 into 10/1. He won at Galway in July, but the rebase and a 10lb rise for that win mean he now carries 9st 2lb. He has a wide draw in 23 and hasn't run for 73 days. Much of the value has gone.
24. Shrimp Shady
Andrew Balding's four year old carries 9st 1lb off 91 with Hornby riding. His form is mixed, and he is unconsidered in the betting.
25. Letsbefrank
Jim Goldie's six year old won last time and carries 8st 6lb, with Young claiming 5lb. He is overshadowed by his stablemate Mountain Road in the betting.
26. Mountain Road
Jim Goldie's seven year old has the best recent staying form in the race. He was beaten only a length at York with Kirchner, Manxman and Valedictory behind him. He carries 9st 2lb off 92, right on the trends, and Mulrennan rides. Stall 26 is a drawback and he has yet to prove he stays 2m 2f, but at 12/1 he is the value.
27. Vaguely Royal
Ian Williams's second runner is racing from out of the handicap with a 5lb claim from Tindall. He looks up against it.
28. Sax Appeal
Charlie Johnston's six year old won last time and carries 8st 12lb with a penalty. Sheehy rides, and he is among the outsiders.
29. Tashkhan
Brian Ellison's eight year old has struggled for form recently and carries 9st 5lb from the widest stall.
Trainer To Watch
Emmet Mullins has two runners, Cock And Bull and Dream On Baby, and both have been backed. He won this race with The Shunter in 2023 and is a master at preparing horses for staying handicaps. James Owen has four runners, High Fibre, Kirchner, Naval Tribute and Percy Shelley, and Naval Tribute is the one to note at a big price.
Cesarewitch Betting Tips
The market has had a shake up since Monday. Dawn Rising and Sea Lantern have been heavily backed, Cock And Bull has gone from 16/1 to 11/1, and Kirchner has drifted. Beylerbeyi is still favourite but has to defy a weight no winner has carried in the past decade, from a high draw and without a win this year.
Sea Lantern is a doubtful runner on fast ground. Dawn Rising's price has collapsed on a booking and a stable gamble, not on his form this year.
Mountain Road looks the bet now. He has the best recent form among the stayers and beat several of these at York. He also carries 9st 2lb off a rating of 92, which fits the trends, and he still trades at 12/1. Take the extra places where you can, with Boyle's six places at 12/1 the best terms.
For a bigger priced each way alternative, Naval Tribute at 40/1 has the right weight, a good low draw and a much shorter exchange price.
