We preview the Melbourne Cup at Flemington this Tuesday.
The race that stops a nation is upon us. The 166th Lexus Melbourne Cup is a Group 1 handicap over 3200 metres, roughly two miles, and goes off at 3pm local time on Tuesday 3 November, which is 4am UK time, live on Sky Sports Racing. A maximum field of 24 will chase a total purse of A$10.2 million, with A$4.5 million going to the winner. Ciaron Maher saddles a record seven runners, Joseph O'Brien brings five from Ireland, and George Boughey, Roger Varian and Harry Charlton fly the British flag.
The final field took a couple of knocks at the weekend, with O'Brien's Defiantly failing a vet inspection and Japanese raider Stinger Glass also ruled out. Point Of Law heads a wide open market after his Geelong Cup romp, but Trustyourinstinct and Hopewell Rock have both been backed hard since the barrier draw.
The weather could have the final say. Flemington was a Good 4 on Monday morning with the rail out three metres, but rain was forecast through Monday and the track manager expects a Soft 5 or Soft 6 by race time.
Melbourne Cup Winners, Trends & Stats
- Favourites have a poor modern record. Only three have won since 2000 (Makybe Diva twice and Fiorente in 2013), and none in the 12 runnings since.
- The sweet spot is just behind the market leader. Twenty of the 26 winners since 2000 started between A$5.01 and A$20.
- Australian stables have won the last five renewals. The last overseas trained winner was O'Brien's Twilight Payment in 2020, although since 2005 the raiders have placed at almost twice the rate of the locals (18% against 10%).
- Barriers 5 and 11 have produced eight winners apiece since barriers were introduced in 1924, barrier 8 has seven (including Half Yours last year) and barrier 14 six. Only one horse, Verry Elleegant, has won from stall 18.
- Since 2005, horses carrying 56kg to 57.5kg have won five times from 47 runners, around three times the strike rate of those further down the weights. Twenty four of the 26 winners since 2000 carried between 51kg and 57.5kg.
- Six year olds have won 10 of the 26 Cups since 2000, more than any other age. No nine year old has ever won.
- Entires have won 10 of the 21 runnings since 2005 despite making up under a third of runners. Point Of Law and Zahrann are the only two in this year's field.
- Since 2000, seven winners came out of the Caulfield Cup, six out of the Cox Plate and three out of the Geelong Cup.
- Sixteen of the last 20 winners were having their first run in the race.
- No mare has won since Verry Elleegant in 2021.
- Joseph O'Brien is the only trainer in the field with two Cups (Rekindling in 2017, Twilight Payment in 2020). Maher won it with Gold Trip in 2022, and Mark Zahra (Gold Trip and Without A Fight) is the only multiple winning jockey riding.
- Last year Half Yours won for Tony and Calvin McEvoy and Jamie Melham, with Goodie Two Shoes second and Middle Earth third. Both placed horses are back.
Melbourne Cup Odds
Melbourne Cup Runners Guide
Sons And Lovers (Barrier 3, 57.5kg, Joseph O'Brien, Dylan Browne McMonagle)
Top weight, and he gets the plum draw among the O'Brien quintet. He won the Group 2 Prix Maurice De Nieuil at Longchamp by a head in July, dictating a steady pace, then filled second in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown under 63.5kg, finishing clear of stablemates James J Braddock and Goodie Two Shoes. He rarely runs a bad race and should land handy from stall 3. The worry is the burden, as the weights suggest he is running off his peak mark, and his rider is having his first Cup ride.
Trustyourinstinct (Barrier 18, 57kg, Joseph O'Brien, James McDonald)
A former hurdler who has kept improving on the flat, he took the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2816m in July and then ran a sound fourth, beaten four and a half lengths, behind Scandinavia in the Irish St Leger. That is the same route Twilight Payment took to win this race in 2020, and he has a turn of foot as well as stamina. McDonald, who won two Group 1s on Derby Day, is a huge plus. Against him, stall 18 has produced just one winner in Cup history and he may not want the rain that is forecast.
Knight's Choice (Barrier 2, 56.5kg, John Symons and Sheila Laxon, Robbie Dolan)
The 2024 winner at A$91 is back with the same rider but five kilos more on his back. His third, beaten a head by Pinhole, in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes was a sharp effort, but he trailed in 14th in the Caulfield Cup a week later, ten lengths behind Kingswood. Stall 2 gives Dolan options. Repeat winners are rare, though, and the weight makes this a far tougher ask.
Middle Earth (Barrier 1, 56.5kg, Ciaron Maher, Mark Zahra)
Third to Half Yours twelve months ago, he has followed almost the same programme this time, finishing ninth in the Caulfield Cup and then eighth in the Cox Plate, where he picked off a few runners late as an A$71 outsider. The whole year has been geared to Tuesday and Zahra has won this race twice. Stall 1 means he will save ground, but he is two kilos higher than last year and his recent placings don't jump off the page.
Vauban (Barrier 22, 56.5kg, Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, Jordan Childs)
This is a fourth crack at the Cup and his best effort was sixth last year. He reappeared after five months off with a battling ninth under 60.5kg in the Geelong Cup, so the Waterhouse and Bott team have had only one run to work with. His best Australian form has come over shorter trips, he is now a nine year old, and stall 22 is no help.
Enfjaar (Barrier 8, 56kg, Roger Varian, Ray Dawson)
The pick of the Caulfield Cup form on paper. Enfjaar arrived off an all the way win in the Group 3 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood and ran a cracker first time in Australia, hitting the front in the straight at Caulfield before being worn down into third, only a length behind Kingswood. Fourth home Cosmic Crusader went on to win the Cox Plate. Barrier 8 is a good gate. The question is stamina, as his connections had queried even 2400m in the past and this is a further 800m.
Royal Supremacy (Barrier 21, 56kg, Ciaron Maher, Ben Allen)
He won The Metropolitan last year and then faded to 15th in this race after racing close to a hot pace. He has picked up the Q22 and the Group 3 JRA Cup at Caulfield this year, both with the run of the race, but dropped right out to finish 15th of 18 in the Caulfield Cup. He likes some cut in the ground, which helps, but the draw in 21 and real doubts over a strongly run two miles make him easy to oppose.
Wine Dark Sea (Barrier 23, 56kg, Harry Charlton, Damian Lane)
He came to Australia off a smart front running win in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury, beating Dubai Honour. He was well backed for the Caulfield Cup but raced on the pace, got caught up in the mid race move and faded to 11th. Connections think the big Flemington track will suit better than tight Caulfield, and he is lightly raced, but he has to bounce back from a poor run and stall 23 doesn't help.
Asterix (Barrier 6, 55kg, Chris Waller, Jye McNeil)
He won the Group 3 Tattersall's Cup during the Queensland winter and ran a nice third to Zahrann in the Naturalism Stakes. Since then it has gone badly wrong. He was last of 13, beaten 43 lengths, in the Turnbull on heavy ground and never threatened when 12th in the Caulfield Cup. A good draw and a Cup winning rider aren't enough to make a case.
Goodie Two Shoes (Barrier 19, 55kg, Joseph O'Brien, Wayne Lordan)
A former jumper, she ran a cracker to finish second in this race last year at A$41. This season has been patchy. She won the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood by a nose, then trailed home last of ten in the Kilternan. She knows Flemington and will see out the trip. The catch is that she carries 55kg compared with 51.5kg last year and has drawn wide in 19. A place looks her ceiling.
Juja Kibo (Barrier 14, 55kg, Ciaron Maher, Sam Clipperton)
Juja Kibo is the in form local stayer. He won The Metropolitan at Randwick on soft ground by a length and three quarters, then took the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m at Flemington on Cox Plate day under 58kg, quickening from well back off a slow pace to beat Kings Valley. He has gone up 3.5kg since the weights came out, but he still meets most of these on decent terms, and stall 14 has produced six winners. Clipperton is bullish and any rain is a plus. The one niggle is whether that turn of foot holds up if this turns into a true stamina test.
Hopewell Rock (Barrier 15, 54.5kg, George Boughey, Zac Lloyd)
The market mover. Owned by Wathnan Racing, Hopewell Rock won over 2816m at Goodwood under 61kg, beating Small Fry, who went on to chase home Point Of Law in the Geelong Cup. He then went down by a head in a 22 runner Ebor at York under 60.5kg, and his rider dropped his whip in the finish. He has won or placed in eight of ten starts, drops to 54.5kg here and gets a talented young rider in Lloyd. He has never raced beyond 2816m and this is his first start in Australia, but the profile is very strong.
Onesmoothoperator (Barrier 13, 54.5kg, Tim Fitzsimmons, Declan Bates)
He won the 2024 Geelong Cup and the 2025 Moonee Valley Cup soon after arriving from Brian Ellison's yard, but he finished 12th and 16th in the two Cups that followed. Since staying in Australia he has gone backwards, finishing ninth in the Herbert Power and 11th in this year's Geelong Cup, nine lengths behind. He would need to find a huge amount of improvement.
Soul Of Spain (Barrier 5, 54.5kg, Chris Waller, Tommy Berry)
He has drawn barrier 5, joint top in Cup history, and he has proven form at the distance, having finished second in the Sydney Cup over 3200m in the autumn when the winner was allowed an easy lead. This spring has been a slow build. He was seventh in The Metropolitan, then eighth in the Caulfield Cup after making an early move round the field. He looks better than his price on the draw alone, but he still needs to find a few lengths.
Zahrann (Barrier 11, 54.5kg, Ciaron Maher, Ben Melham)
One of only two entires in the race, and he has drawn 11, the other most successful barrier in Cup history. Zahrann won the Naturalism Stakes, flopped in the Turnbull on rain affected ground and then went off second favourite for the Caulfield Cup, where he stayed on for sixth after his run was interrupted, four lengths behind Kingswood. He was once a single figure price for an Irish Champion Stakes, so the class is there. He has never raced at 3200m, and that is the big question.
So You Are (Barrier 7, 54kg, Bjorn Baker, Rachel King)
A great story. He was running in a Grafton Cup four months ago and has since won four on the bounce for Baker. Those wins include the ATC St Leger at Randwick over 2600m on soft ground and the Bendigo Cup last Wednesday under 58.5kg, the same lead up race Knight's Choice used two years ago. He handles any ground, has a good draw and drops 4.5kg from Bendigo. He is backing up only six days later, though, and he has been on the go since the autumn, so freshness is a concern.
Future History (Barrier 12, 53.5kg, Gregory Hickman, Jamie Melham)
He got in late through the scratchings, which gives Melham the chance to become the first female jockey to win back to back Cups. Formerly with Maher, he was 15th in the 2023 Cup, and this season he has run fourth in the Herbert Power and ninth in the Moonee Valley Cup. He has done nothing to suggest he can win this.
James J Braddock (Barrier 24, 53.5kg, Joseph O'Brien, Craig Williams)
James J Braddock is the unknown quantity. He won the Group 3 Leopardstown Derby Trial and then finished a gallant third on heavy ground in the Epsom Derby, but he ran poorly in the Irish Derby. He was gelded after that with this race in mind. His comeback sixth in the Kilternan, four lengths behind the winner, was a pass mark rather than a thriller. He is well weighted for a Classic placed horse and Williams is a former Cup winner, but stall 24 is the widest of all, so he needs a lot to go right early.
Kizlyar (Barrier 20, 53.5kg, Joseph O'Brien, Beau Mertens)
He came into the race when Defiantly was scratched, and the irony is that he beat Defiantly by a head in the Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles at Royal Ascot in June. Stamina is not in doubt. He was a disappointing 11th as a well backed runner in the Moonee Valley Cup, where the steady pace found out his lack of a finishing kick. Expect him to be ridden more positively this time. Barrier 20 complicates that plan.
Point Of Law (Barrier 9, 53kg, Ciaron Maher, Ethan Brown)
The favourite. Formerly owned by the King, he won his maiden at Newbury, finished fourth in the Queen's Vase and then won the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket before Australian owners bought him for Maher. On his first Australian start he sat outside the leader in the Geelong Cup and beat Small Fry by half a length, a run that rated very highly and took him to the head of the market. He is an entire who has had only five starts, carries just 53kg including a 2kg penalty and has a barrier his trainer called ideal. The doubts are real, though. He has never raced on a wet track, he raced keenly and hung at Geelong, and he will face a crowd of around 90,000. At 7/1 he is a fair price rather than a gift.
Strictly Business (Barrier 4, 53kg, Thomas Carberry, Dean Yendall)
She went from a Ballarat maiden win to taking the VRC Oaks within a fortnight and later finished third in the South Australian Derby. This spring has been a write off. She was second last in the Herbert Power and last in the Moonee Valley Cup, beaten 14 lengths. Michael Dee gave up the ride to stand by for Shockletz, and Yendall takes over. It is hard to see a revival.
Mr Monaco (Barrier 16, 52.5kg, Ciaron Maher, Jabez Johnstone)
A genuine soft ground horse, he won the Group 3 Bart Cummings over 2520m here on a wet track, ridden close to the pace, and then stayed on for third, under a length behind Juja Kibo, in the Moonee Valley Cup. He has a light weight and two good runs at the track this spring. Johnstone is bidding to become the first apprentice to win the Cup since 1948. He dropped out in the Sydney Cup over this trip in the autumn, so 3200m isn't proven, but he would be a lively outsider on a soft track.
Zakouma (Barrier 10, 52kg, Grahame Begg, William Pike)
Begg has had six months to aim him at this race since he won the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m in May. He finished a good fifth in the Herbert Power, only two and a half lengths behind, and his last of 11 over a mile on Cox Plate day was simply a sharpener. He gets a low weight and a good draw, and Pike rode the Cox Plate winner. He is an each way outsider worth noting.
Shockletz (Barrier 17, 51kg, Ciaron Maher, Harry Coffey)
A daughter of 2009 winner Shocking, she earned her place by winning the Archer Stakes over 2500m here in September by two and a quarter lengths. Since then she has run two eyecatching trials, sixth in the Herbert Power and a close second under 58kg in the Tesio Stakes over 2040m. She now drops to the bottom weight of 51kg, has won three times from nine starts at Flemington and has a good record on soft ground. The doubts are stall 17 and her rider. Coffey broke his collarbone in a fall on Derby Day and had surgery on Sunday, and Racing Victoria cleared him to ride only on Monday.
Melbourne Cup Trainer To Watch
Ciaron Maher is the trainer to watch. He has seven of the 24 runners, which is a record, and he is having a spring to remember, with The Everest won by Tempted plus Group 1 wins in the Manikato, the Thousand Guineas and the Coolmore Stud Stakes. He already has a Cup on his record with Gold Trip in 2022. His runners cover every scenario: the favourite Point Of Law from a good draw, the in form Juja Kibo, the lightweight Shockletz, last year's third Middle Earth and wet track specialist Mr Monaco. Five of his seven are among the first ten in the betting. Joseph O'Brien deserves a mention for his two Cups, but four of his five have drawn 18 or wider.
Betting Insights for the Melbourne Cup
This is an open renewal with no standout stayer, and the forecast rain could change things on the day. Point Of Law has the most raw talent and a lovely draw, but he will be favourite, a group that has drawn a blank for 12 years. He is also untried on soft ground and still learning his job, so at 7/1 I'd rather take him on. Trustyourinstinct has the class and the jockey, but stall 18 and a possibly soft surface put me off at the price. Hopewell Rock has a lot going for him, but most of the value went with the gamble.
JUJA KIBO is the one I like. He is the form horse among the locals, he has already won on soft ground this spring, and his Moonee Valley Cup win came at Flemington, quickening off a slow pace under 58kg. He drops three kilos from that run and has drawn barrier 14, which has a good Cup record. He is a six year old, the age group with the best modern record, and his stable is in the form of its life. You can get 12/1 with bet365, but I'd rather take 11/1 with Paddy Power, Coral or Ladbrokes, who all pay five places at a fifth of the odds.
For a second each way play, Shockletz makes plenty of appeal at 9/1 with Sky Bet, who are paying six places. She has bottom weight, form at Flemington and on soft ground, and two strong trials behind her. Check that Coffey has come through Tuesday morning before backing her. Mr Monaco at 22/1 is a bigger priced runner who would come into it if the track gets into the Soft 6 range or worse.
