Bookies think the Prime Minister is facing a landslide defeat in the House of Commons.
The long awaited ‘meaningful vote’ on Theresa May’s draft withdrawal agreement is due to take place this evening.
According to bookies, the most likely outcome is that just 200-249 MPs of the more than 600 expected to vote on the issue will side with the proposed Brexit deal. Priced odds-on at 8/11, that’s an implied probability of 57.9% that those are the final numbers in favour.
Elsewhere, the pitiful possibility that the government are backed by only 151-199 MPs has been cut from 6/1 to 3/1, as bookies predict further humiliation for Theresa May.
The most recent Commons defeat last week determined that the government would have just three days to come up with a ‘Plan B’ on Brexit should they lose the meaningful vote this evening.
If that’s any indication, the number of MPs siding with the government that time was 297. 250-299 votes can be backed at 4/1, while the narrower window of 290-299 MPs in favour is priced at a hefty 20/1.
Having called off the original vote before Christmas, the Prime Minister went in search of reassurances from Brussels.
In the midst of a domestic storm that saw senior party officials resign and a confidence vote tabled from within the Conservative Party, Theresa May failed to gain any noticeable support for the draft deal and has struggled ever since.
Oddschecker spokesperson George Elek: “The government will be scrambling to prepare their ‘Plan B’ ahead of the meaningful vote. It’s set to be far from a contest, with the only real question being how far the losing margin will prove to be for the government.
“Bookmakers price the deal being rejected by MPs at 1/33, implying just a 2.9% chance it goes through.”
