64% of bets in the last 24 hours have gone on a second referendum being called.
After a catastrophic defeat for Theresa May’s Brexit deal in the House of Commons on Tuesday evening, bookmakers have once again slashed odds on a second referendum being called.
Priced at 11/8 before the latest events in parliament, the second referendum outcome is now as short as 11/10. That’s seen the implied probability leap from 42.1% to 47.6%. No second vote is still odds-on, but has drifted from 1/2 out to 4/6.
In what was the most crushing loss in recent memory, the Prime Minister yesterday saw her withdrawal agreement slapped down by 432 MPs, with only 202 backing her.
Despite this, the government are expected to survive the resulting confidence vote called by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, as short as 1/66 in places.
With the focus still firmly on how to deliver Brexit and ‘no-deal’ the likely scenario, the possibility of a second referendum had drifted from odds-on in mid-December as far as 13/8 at the beginning of 2019.
However, as calls grow for Article 50 to be delayed or even revoked, the People’s Vote campaign will once again see a window of opportunity as they push for another referendum.
Oddschecker spokesperson George Elek: “Having been odds-on at the height of the Brexit chaos before Christmas, it seemed the second referendum arguments had since worn thin. Yet, after last night’s vote and the only real option looking like leaving the EU with no deal, the betting markets now suggest the People’s Vote alternative is back on.”
