British bookies are unanimously odds-on that a general election takes place in 2019.
The Queen will today announce the government’s plans for the coming year, setting out Boris Johnson’s legislative agenda.
However, there is a possibility that Parliament could reject the announcement of the Prime Minister’s 22 proposed new bills. In this instance, the possibility of an imminent general election would loom large.
Bookmakers currently have 2019 as the year of the next election at 10/11, or an implied probability of 52.4%. This has drifted slightly this morning from 4/5, or 55.6%.
The next most likely year is 2020, priced at 27/20, which is the equivalent of a 42.6% implied probability chance.
Oddschecker spokesperson Callum Wilson: “Boris Johnson has no majority and the clock is ticking towards the 31st October Brexit deadline. Any resistance to today’s Queen Speech would see calls for a general election reach fever pitch.
“One UK bookmaker still has Boris Johnson odds-on to be the shortest-serving Prime Minister ever (under 119 days) at 5/6. That’s an implied probability of 54.5% that he doesn’t make it past 20th November in office.”
