Caroline Lucas has the safest seat of the main party leaders...
If any seat is supposed to be assured for a particular political party, it should be the constituency that said leader is standing in.
But just how likely are each of the main party leaders to retain their constituency?
We had a look into Boris Johnson’s seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Jeremy Corbyn’s stronghold of Islington North, Jo Swinson’s seat in Dunbartonshire East and Caroline Lucas’ constituency of Brighton Pavilion.
Boris Johnson (Conservative)
No surprises here, Johnson is clear favourite to win his constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip and is priced at 1/6 to do so.
That’s an implied probability of 85.7% that it votes Tory. Elsewhere, Labour are the next biggest challengers at 4/1, followed by Liberal Democrats (25/1).
Jeremy Corbyn (Labour)
Bookmakers do not see this seat as even a remote contest, with Corbyn and the Labour priced at 1/33 to retain the seat.
That’s a percentage chance of 97.1% that Islington North remains red. Elsewhere, the next nearest challengers are the Liberal Democrats, priced at 10/1.
Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrats)
Swinson’s seat is a little more precarious, with her Lib Dem party priced at just 1/4 to be elected in Dunbartonshire East.
The SNP are the next nearest challengers at 11/4, in what should essentially be a two-horse race.
Elsewhere, the Conservative party and Labour party are both 50/1.
Caroline Lucas (Green Party)
The only constituency in the UK currently where the Green party are favourite is Brighton Pavilion, of which Lucas sits.
With Brighton penned as a huge stronghold for the Greens, Lucas an enormous favourite to retain her seat and the only seat held by the Green Party.
Currently priced at 1/50, it looks all but certain she’ll hold onto her seat.
Interactive Constituency Map
Using our interactive map, punters and those interested in politics can scour the country and see exactly which political party is expected to win in each individual constituency.
The graph is interactive, zoom in and out and hover over each constituency to see its name and favourite to win.
