oddschecker have the latest on the Next Prime Minister Odds, with a Boris Johnson exit date in 2022 now as short as 1/2.
Boris Johnson has now been cut into 1/2 to exit in 2022, with bookies cutting their odds once again in light of the controversy surrounding his comments about Sir Keir Starmer.
The Prime Minister accused Starmer of trying to “prejudge a police inquiry”, adding that as director of public prosecutions from 2008 to 2013 he had “spent most of his time prosecuting journalists and failing to prosecute Jimmy Savile”.
Many Tory MP’s called on Johnson to retract these comments, causing inevitable uproar in Parliament. At the time of writing, four of Johnson’s senior aides have quit - the chief of staff, chief of communications, policy chief and the official who runs his private office.
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Is there any way back for the Prime Minster?
Admittedly, it does not look good for the Prime Minister now that four senior officials have abandoned ship. However, there is some value in the market - a Johnson exit date in 2023 or later is currently 7/4. An exit date of 2024 or later, meanwhile, is priced at best odds of 39/10.
If Johnson doesn’t willingly step down, the Tories will have to pass a unanimous vote of no confidence in the PM. Currently, just 17 Conservative MPs have submitted these letters, with 54 needed to trigger a leadership contest.
Other markets
Will Boris Johnson resign before Februrary 28th? Currently 7/4 for Yes and 2/5 for No.
Will a no-confidence vote be triggered? 11/8 for Yes and 8/15 for No.
Next Prime Minister Odds:
In terms of a replacement for ‘Bojo’, the bookies current favourite is Rishi Sunak at 15/8, closely followed by the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Liz Truss, at 39/5. Sir Keir Starmer is the first non-conservative candidate on the list, with current best odds of 10/1.
Elsewhere in the market, we have Tom Tugendhat (25/2) and Penny Mordaunt (29/2), while Sajid Javid is 30/1. Longer picks include Michael Gove, Nadhim Zahawi and Iain Duncan Smith all at 33/1.
