In a controversial week for the Conservative party featuring the release of the 'mini-budget', new Prime Minister Liz Truss has seen her exit date odds for 2022 slashed.
How likely is Truss to leave in 2022?
Last Tuesday, the odds for Liz Truss to leave office in 2022 sat at 66/1; amazingly, those odds are now as short as 4/1 (7/1 available).
Truss’ exit date to be 2022 is the most backed politics market on oddschecker in the past seven days, accounting for 25% of total politics bets.
Despite the betting attention, 2023 remains the favourite year for her to leave office at odds of 11/8 (32/21 best price). 2024 is the next shortest in the market at 23/10 best price, with an exit date of 2025 or later priced at 7/2.
Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, has seen his price in the next cabinet minister to leave odds slashed from 20/1 into the 5/2 favourite.
Labour fancied for most seats after terrible week for Tories
The uproar to the Conservative cabinet’s 'mini-budget' has only strengthened the position of Keir Starmer and the Labour party, according to bookmakers.
Labour is in their strongest position to have the most seats at the next General Election (according to average odds) since we opened in 2019, with one bookmaker giving them a 63% implied probability.
They are as short as 1/2 (best price 3/4) to win the most seats at the next GE, with the Conservatives 18/11 best odds giving them an implied probability of 38% (lowest since market opened).
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Starmer strengthens position in next Prime Minister market
Following his own strong reception at the Labour Party Conference combined with the Tory troubles, Starmer’s odds to become next Prime Minister after Truss is odds-on across our grid (10/11 best).
The Labour leader leads Rishi Sunak (8/1) and, remarkably, Boris Johnson (10/1) as the top three favourites in the market for next Prime Minister after Truss.
What will government look like after the next General Election?
Labour majority is now the favourite in the government after the next general election market with odds of 2/1, shortening from 9/2 earlier on this week.
On the other hand, a Conservative majority is at its widest odds since the market opened in 2019, with one bookmaker offering 7/2.
Bookmakers view a Labour – Lib Dem as the most likely coalition at the next general election with odds of 11/1 available (15/2 shortest odds).