General Election Odds: Which seats are the Reform Party most likely to win?

General Election Odds: Which seats are the Reform Party most likely to win?

Which seats are Nigel Farage's Reform Party most likely to gain in the upcoming general election?

The conservatives were dealt a double blow yesterday as not only did a poll reveal that Labour were set to win the biggest majority of any party in a century, but they also learned that Nigel Farage would be standing as MP for the Reform party in the upcoming general election.

Farage will be running for the eigth time as he aims to offer voters what he described as a serious right wing option at this election.

It is believed that the presence of the high profile former UKIP leader will peel away further Tory voters and take a share of their already diminishing support.

Which constituencies are considered by the bookmakers as the most likely to be won by the Reform Party?


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General Election 2024: Most Likely Reform Seats

Constituency Best Odds Worst Odds Worst Odds Implied Chance
Clacton 4/11 1/3 75%
Boston And Skegness 7/2 2/1 33%
Ashfield 15/4 5/2 29%
Normanton And Hemsworth 8/1 7/1 13%
Basildon South and East Thurrock 11/1 10/1 9%
Castle Point 9/1 17/2 11%


Clacton MP Odds

Farage will be running for the Clacton seat which was known for its high percentage of leave voters which might explain Farage's decision to run there.

It is also the only constituency to elect a UKIP MP at a general election (2015).

However, it is also one of the safest Conservative seats in the region with a 25,000 majority.

Farage and the Reform party are short priced favourites to win the seat at a best price of 4/11 and worst price of 1/3 giving him an implied 75% chance.

The Conservatives are second favourites to win the seat at 11/4 best price (William Hill) and Labour are 8/1 best price.

To back the Reform Party to win the Clacton seat at a guaranteed best price directly through oddschecker, CLICK HERE

Boston and Skegness MP Odds

Boston and Skegness is the second most likely seat for the Reform party.

Much like Clacton, Boston and Skegness had a very high percentage voting for Brexit with over 75% doing so - the largest in the country.

UKIP also finished second in this seat in 2015, 4336 votes off beating the Tories.

Richard Tice will contest this seat in the upcoming elections and has been given a best price of 7/2 and worst price of 2/1 to succeed.

The Conservatives are 8/13 best priced favourites to win this seat, Reform are second favourites and Labour are 4/1 (best price) third favourites.

Ashfield MP Odds

Bookmakers have Ashfield as the third most likely Reform seat.

Ashfield has notoriously been a constituency that doesn't follow the crowd, they have only voted for a Conservative MP twice in its 70 years of existence.

The last vote was won by the Conservatives with less than 40% of the votes with Ashfield Independants receiving 28% and Labour 24% votes. 

The Ashfield Independants have been described as somewhat of a similar party to Reform, one that is anti-system and looking to shake things up.

If Reform MP Lee Anderson can win over the locals he could certainly sway a lot of the Ashford Independant voters his way and stand a good chance of winning this seat.

The Reform Party are 15/4 best price and 5/2 worst price to win this seat.

Labour are 8/13 (best price) favourites to win this seat, Reform are second favourites and Ashfield Independants are 5/1 (best price) third favourites.

If you are interested in the latest General Election Odds, and in particular the odds for your local constituency, then check out our UK Constituency Map HERE.

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