Joe Biden's odds to win the 2024 election have significantly drifted following last night's debate.
Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2024 Election have been hovering around the 13/8 mark for a few weeks now, making him the narrow second favorite behind Donald Trump. Those odds would imply Joe Biden had a 38% chance of remaining in office.
However, following last night’s debate with rival Donald Trump, Joe Biden’s betting odds skyrocketed. Joe Biden is now 4/1 to win the Election with various bookmakers, which imply he’s only got a 20% chance of winning in November.
This is by far the biggest price offered by bookmakers since they opened the market following his 2020 Election win.
On the contrary, Donald Trump’s grip on the Election intensified, Trump’s odds plummeted to a best price of 8/13 at AKBets, which implies he’s got a 62% chance of getting back in the White House.
Just last month, Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 Election sat at 6/5, which implied a 46% chance of winning.
It’s not only the bookmakers which believe last night’s debate could spell disaster for Joe Biden, since the debate concluded, 42% of all bets placed on the Election winner have been on Trump, with only 28% on the current President.
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2024 Election Winner Odds
| Candidate | UK Odds | Implied % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 4/7 | 64% |
| Joe Biden | 4/1 | 20% |
| Gavin Newsom | 5/1 | 17% |
| Kamala Harris | 14/1 | 7% |
| Michelle Obama | 25/1 | 4% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 50/1 | 2% |
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Who could replace Joe Biden?
There appear concerns about Joe Biden’s ability to run in this election, following the debate Gavin Newson’s odds on winning the Election were cut from 22/1 to as short as 5/1. Kamala Harris odds to win the Election were also cut from 50/1 to as short as 14/1.
Joe Biden remains the betting favorite in the Democratic Candidate market, with his odds sitting at 4/7 (best price at Paddy Power). However, Gavin Newsom’s odds of representing the Democratic Party have been cut from 10/1 to as short as 9/4.
Who could replace Joe Biden? Democratic Candidate Odds
| Candidate | UK Odds | Implied % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 4/7 | 64% |
| Gavin Newsom | 9/4 | 31% |
| Kamala Harris | 12/1 | 8% |
| Michelle Obama | 14/1 | 7% |
| Hillary Clinton | 20/1 | 5% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 30/1 | 3% |
