With the Conservatives projected to suffer a landslide election defeat, who is in line to replace party leader Rishi Sunak?
The Conservative party are projected to win less than 90 seats (86) in today’s UK General Election, so is the writing on the wall for Rishi Sunak?
Even at best prices through oddschecker, it is rated close to 99% likely that the most seats will be won by Labour, currently projected to win more than 450 of the 650 seats available in Parliament.
This would be an even bigger win than Tony Blair's landslide win in 1997, which saw the former Labour leader win 418 seats.
Who is the favourite to replace Rishi Sunak?
Kemi Badenoch, the Business Secretary for North West Essex, is the marginal favourite with the bookmakers to replace Rishi Sunak at 4/1 on Betfred.
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Despite the Conservative party's ailing fortunes, Badenoch had the highest net satisfaction rating of any Cabinet minister in a survey posted by the ConservativeHome website in May (+56.3%).
To back Kemi Badenoch to replace Rishi Sunak as Conservative leader directly through oddschecker at a guaranteed best price, click here.
Second in that same survey was Johnny Mercer, Minister of State for Veterans' Affairs (+45%), who splits opinion with the bookmakers as a possible replacement for Sunak - ranging from 40/1 on Paddy Power to 100/1 on William Hill.
Instead, Badenoch's closest rival in the event Sunak walks away is likely to be former Secretary of State for the Home Department, Priti Patel, rated more than 85% likely to win the seat in Witham at 1/6 on bet365.
7/1 on Ladbrokes at the start of the week, Patel is now a general 5/1 (best price 6/1 on Unibet).
A big drifter in the market is Penny Mordaunt (now as big as 8/1 on Ladbrokes), who came third behind Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak in the 2022 Conservative Party leadership contest to succeed Boris Johnson (Badenoch was fourth).
Fifth on that occasion was the current third favourite in the next Conservative leader odds market, Tom Tugendhat (6/1). Similarly to Badenoch and Patel, the Minister of State for Security may be left without crucial allies if poll tracking is accurate.
Interestingly, Nigel Farage is a shortest 7/1 to replace Rishi Sunak (best price 14/1). That's despite the Reform leader ruling himself out of joining the Tory party earlier this week, saying he wants "nothing to do with them".
Next Conservative Leader Odds
| Next Conservative Leader | Best Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch | 4/1 | 20% |
| Priti Patel | 6/1 | 14% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 6/1 | 14% |
| Penny Mordaunt | 8/1 | 11% |
| James Cleverly | 11/1 | 8% |
| Suella Braverman | 12/1 | 7% |
| Nigel Farage | 14/1 | 6% |
