The betting odds suggest the next Prime Minister market is already sewn up.
After months of relentless campaigning, door knocking and debates, Sir Keir Starmer and incumbent Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, will soon find out who will be taking the hot seat at 10 Downing Street.
In recent days, Sunak’s campaign has been targeted at stopping a Labour ‘supermajority’, which in British political terms translates to a complete landslide victory.
It’s not often that a general election is a foregone conclusion before voting booths open, but Sunak’s push against a ‘supermajority’ is a clear indication he accepted defeat before a single vote was cast.
Polls are averaging the Conservatives to be 20 points behind Labour, with the higher end of seat projections being in the region of 420 for Starmer, and the lowest end for Sunak being 120. Both would be record-breaking.
The expectation is that Labour will romp to victory, but the question is by how much?
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Unsurprisingly, Sir Keir’s best odds are 1/80 (Betfred) to be handed the keys to Downing Street on Friday morning. Some bookies even have the London native down at 1/200.
Meanwhile, Sunak is not even the second favourite with bookmakers. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage is priced more favourably with best odds of 55/1 (Paddy Power) to become the next Prime Minister. It would undoubtedly be the biggest shock in UK political history.
Sunak is best-priced at 50/1 (BetMGM) to retain his premiership for another five years.
In the market for the parties themselves, Labour are 1/25 to form a majority government, and 50/1 to form a minority government. Should Reform spring a shock, the later could be viable, though very unlikely.
While, at 66/1, the Conservatives are seen as more likely to form a coalition government with Reform UK than they are to form a majority government of their own at 150/1.
Experts have said that a ‘third place’ finish for the Conservatives would see them destroyed as party, and that might yet be Thursday’s biggest story.
You can follow all of the key election markets on oddschecker throughout the day.
If you are wondering who is the betting favourite in your constituency, simply enter your constituency in the search bar below to find out!
