Who are the three most likely candidates to become leader of the Conservative Party?
After a historic defeat for the Conservative Party, which saw them win just 121 seats—down 244 seats from their 2019 victory—Rishi Sunak has announced his resignation as party leader.
This outcome marks the party's worst performance since 1918, even surpassing their 1997 results when they secured 165 seats in the House of Commons with a 30.7% share of the vote.
As the Conservatives seek to recover from this landslide loss, the party will soon elect a new leader.
Here are the three most likely candidates to replace Rishi Sunak.
Next Conservative Leader Odds
| Candidate | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch | 2/1 | 33% |
| Robert Jenrick | 4/1 | 20% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 6/1 | 14% |
Who is the favourite to become the next Conservative leader?
Kemi Badenoch, the former Business and Trade Secretary, is currently the 2/1 favorite for the leadership position at Sky Bet. Badenoch garnered significant attention during her 2022 bid for party leadership, finishing fourth.
She has maintained her prominence within the Conservative Party, securing her North West Essex seat with a 4.7% majority.
The second favorite is Robert Jenrick, the former Immigration Minister, with odds of 4/1 at Betfred. Jenrick, the current representative for the Nottinghamshire constituency of Newark, is set to enter the leadership race for the first time.
He made headlines last year when he resigned from his position in protest against the government’s Rwanda deportation scheme for asylum seekers, arguing that it fell short of the mark.
Tom Tugendhat is the third favorite, with a best price of 6/1 at Ladbrokes.
The former Security Minister, who finished fifth behind Badenoch in the 2022 leadership contest, spent five years chairing the Foreign Affairs Committee and previously served in the military for ten years
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