Canadians head to the polls today to vote in the federal election.
Canadians are heading to the polls today in a snap federal election called by newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader in March, is facing off against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Triggered by rising tensions with US President Donald Trump — including tariff threats and controversial calls to make Canada the "51st state" - this election has become a referendum on national identity and leadership.
The Liberals had been trailing badly in polls for years - often by double digits to the Conservatives, but they have rebounded amid rising nationalism since the start of the year and polls now suggest a tight race with the Liberals slightly ahead.
Polls open at 7:00 EDT (12:00 BST), who is the favourite to win the election?
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Canadian Election Odds
Most Votes
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 1/4 | 80% |
| Conservative | 17/4 | 19% |
| Any Other Party | 125/1 | 0.8% |
Government After Next Election
| Government | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party Majority | 4/6 | 60% |
| Liberal Party Minority | 7/2 | 22% |
| Conservatives Minority | 11/2 | 15% |
| Conservative Majority | 13/2 | 13% |
Who is the favourite to win the Canadian Election?
As Canadians head to the polls for the federal election, the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, remains the favourite to secure victory with odds of 4/6 (Ladbrokes) to win a majority vote, though the race has tightened.
A poll tracker by Canada’s CBC News shows Carney’s Liberals at 42.8%, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s party close behind at 39.2%.
The latest odds suggest the Liberals hold a 80% implied probability of winning the most seats, with odds of 1/4 with Ladbrokes.
Carney’s message of national unity in response to US President Donald Trump’s threats has resonated with many voters, positioning him as the front-runner to continue his leadership.
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However, Poilievre and the Conservatives have rallied support by criticizing what they call the "lost Liberal decade" under Trudeau and emphasizing rising housing costs, crime, and a need for change.
The Conservatives are a best price of 11/2 with Bet365 to win a majority vote and 17/4 with Unibet to win the most votes.
With the election nearing its conclusion, the Liberals remain in a strong position, but Ontario and Quebec, key battleground provinces, will likely determine the final outcome.
